Morehead State vs. Illinois Prediction & March Madness Odds: Can Eagles Strike Early?
The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Morehead State Eagles in the first round of the East Region NCAA Tournament on Thursday, as we offer our best NCAA Tournament Morehead State vs. Illinois prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
Scheduled to tip off at 3:10 p.m. ET on truTV, the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini aim to avoid another loss as a top-four seed as they face the No. 14 Morehead State Eagles.
Star senior Terrence Shannon spearheads the Fighting Illini's dynamic offense, averaging 23 points per game. Shannon is one of four double-digit scorers on Brad Underwood's team. Nonetheless, it's vital not to underestimate Ohio Valley champion Morehead State, which features an elite shot-maker and a formidable defense that could pose challenges, especially early in the game.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Morehead State vs. Illinois prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Morehead State vs. Illinois odds
Morehead State (14) vs. Illinois (3) prediction: East Region
Morehead State 1H +7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365
Like many teams in this region, it feels like Illinois was underslotted as a No. 3 seed after winning the Big Ten Tournament. But that doesn't mean this group will waltz to an easy win on Thursday.
Morehead State has the size at all five positions to contend with Illinois' balanced offensive attack, and it boasts its own dynamic shot-creator in Riley Minix (20.8 PPG), who averaged 24.3 points and 11.4 rebounds over his last dozen games to carry the Eagles to their best record (26-8) in program history.
Critically, Morehead State also features one of the slowest tempos in the country with elite defensive marks inside and along the perimeter. That's a key reason why the Eagles are allowing the 14th-fewest points per game in the first half (30.0) and have led at halftime in five of their last seven games.
Illinois' defense ranks 228th in first-half points allowed (34.8 PPG), and the team as a whole is outscoring opponents by just five points per game at intermission - just a tick better than the Eagles (plus-3.9), who led Indiana by 11 points at the break in their last game against a Big Ten opponent.
Eventually, I'd expect Illinois' cadre of offensive talent to prevail, which is what happened for the Hoosiers, too. Yet I won't be surprised if Morehead State keeps this game close until the very end and even carries a lead into halftime, which would pay out at +330 via FanDuel.
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Morehead State vs. Illinois best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 | BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead State 1H +7 | Morehead State 1H +6.5 | Morehead State 1H +7 | Morehead State 1H +7 |
| -120 | -105 | -110 | -112 |
Four of our best sportsbooks are offering first-half spreads for this game, and only three of them are dealing Morehead State at +7 or better in the opening period.
Among those books, bet365 is offering the best odds at -110, which is why we'd recommend going with that book if you like the Eagles' early chances as we do. With these prices so close, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos, especially with so many bonuses offered for March Madness.
Morehead State vs. Illinois spread & Over/Under analysis
When this matchup was first announced, Illinois opened as a 13.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites. Since then, we've seen the line move at least two points in favor of Morehead State at some shops, even as the halftime line remains inflated for the underdog Eagles.
The total also dipped from as high as 149.5 to a near-consensus 147.5, though you can still catch a rogue 147 at DraftKings as of Monday. If you like the Over in this matchup, that's the place to bet.
Morehead State vs. Illinois game info
- When: Thursday, March 21
- Tip-off: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where: CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, Neb.
- How to watch: truTV
Morehead State-Illinois prediction made Monday at 5:30 p.m. ET.
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