Missouri vs. Florida Prediction, Odds & Score Picks: SEC Quarterfinals Best Bets

If Missouri is going to upset Florida for the second time, it might have to happen without the best player on its roster.

Our Missouri vs. Florida prediction, odds, and expert picks for the SEC quarterfinals look to gauge Mizzou’s chances in the event that the injury suffered by Mark Mitchell on Thursday keeps him out of the next round of the tournament.

Missouri faces Florida at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville on Friday at 7 p.m. ET (SEC Network).

💰 Missouri vs. Florida predictions, expert picks & best bets: SEC Quarterfinals

Here are my best Missouri vs. Florida predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for SEC Quarterfinals with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

• Against the spread pick: Missouri +9.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best player prop bet: Caleb Grill Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Exact score prediction: Florida 84, Missouri 78 (+26000 via FanDuel)

👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!

🏀 Missouri vs. Florida ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Here's why I'm betting on Missouri to cover the spread (+9.5) while targeting Caleb Grill Over 2.5 made 3-pointers as my best player prop bet pick for today:

✅ Missouri to cover the spread (+9.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Missouri stunned the Gators in Gainesville earlier this season, upending Florida in an 83-82 thriller that put Dennis Gates' Tigers on the map. Aside from that blemish, Florida has established itself as a dominant force on both sides of the court, compiling a resume that arguably lands the Gators as a one-seed in March Madness regardless of how far they endeavor to go in Nashville this weekend.

The Tigers are 6-3 as underdogs this season and have lost only twice by a margin greater than this 9.5-point spread.

📊 Best odds: -108 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $9.26)

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🔥 Caleb Grill Over 2.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Florida is one of the top teams in the nation at defending the 3-point line on a season-long basis, the Gators rank a far more pedestrian 228th in opponent 3-point percentage over the past month.

Mizzou’s Caleb Grill poured in 22 points (6-for-10 on 3-point attempts) in the Jan. 14 victory over Florida. Given the distinct possibility of an absent or limited Mark Mitchell, the Tigers leaning more heavily into their outside shooting game hoping to wreak some havoc could be as good of a plan as any for Friday night.

Although Grill went just 1-for-8 from deep in Thursday's win over Mississippi State, that rough outing won’t keep him from having the green light Friday. After each of the three previous SEC games in which Grill failed to make multiple 3-pointers this season, he immediately followed up with 3-plus made triples in his next game.

📊 Best odds: +135 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $10.35)

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🎯 Expert Missouri vs. Florida score prediction

🔮 Expert score prediction: Florida 84, Missouri 78

Missouri struggled down the stretch run of the regular season with interior defense and could be even more hard-pressed to slow down Florida’s top-10 adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation if Mark Mitchell is unable to go.

It’s for that reason that we see the Gators arriving right near their season scoring average in this matchup, while Missouri could lose a couple ticks offensively if it is forced to turn again to more minutes for defensive stalwart Aidan Shaw in Mitchell’s stead.

📊 Best odds: +26000 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $2,600)

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📊 Live Missouri vs. Florida odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Missouri vs. Florida, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🔢 Missouri vs. Florida opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Missouri vs. Florida according to SBR’s oddsboard.

• Spread: Missouri +8.5 (-115) | Florida -8.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Missouri +280 | Florida -350
• Over/Under: Over 160.5 (-110) | Under 160.5 (-110)

🏆 Who will win Missouri vs. Florida?

As of 11 a.m. ET, Florida is favored by 9.5 points to beat Missouri with moneyline odds of -425 at BetMGM, which suggest an 80.95% win probability for the Gators. We're predicting an 84-78 win for Florida as our final score projection.

So far, 57% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Florida -9.5, while 63% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 161.5 points.

📺 How to watch Missouri vs. Florida tonight

📅 Date: Friday, March 14
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville)
📺 TV: SEC Network
💻 Streaming: ESPN App

❓ Missouri vs. Florida FAQs

Who's favored to win the SEC tournament?

Auburn is favored to win by the SEC Tournament odds with +140 odds at BetMGM.

Who is favored to win Missouri vs. Florida?

Florida is favored to win the game with -425 odds on the moneyline, which equates to an implied win probability of 80.95%.

What are the betting odds for Missouri vs. Florida?

The latest spread is Missouri +9.5 (-108) | Florida -9.5 (-110), with a total of 161.5 points (-110).

What will be the final score of Missouri vs. Florida?

We're predicting a final score of Florida 84, Missouri 78 entering tonight's matchup at Bridgestone Arena.

What time is Missouri vs. Florida tonight?

Tipoff is scheduled for tonight at 7 p.m. ET.

⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites

Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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