🏀 Michigan vs. Texas Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Elite Eight (March 30)
No. 2 Michigan will look to prevent No. 1 Texas from winning its 12th consecutive game with with a spot to the Women's March Madness Final Four on the line.
My best Michigan vs. Texas prediction for tonight's game at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, centers on Michigan's ability to slow down the nation's best offenses this season. The latest women's March Madness odds show Texas as a 9.5-point betting favorite, though I believe that Rori Harmon and the Longhorns have their work cut out for them. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+.
🏀 Michigan vs. Texas picks & odds: Women's March Madness Elite Eight
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan +9.5 | -108 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.93u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 139.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rori Harmon Under 8.5 points | -112 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.64 units
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🏆 Who will win Michigan vs. Texas?
I'm taking Texas to win by six because while the Longhorns' defensive strength will ultimately win out, the Wolverines have proven they can compete with the best teams in the nation, losing by just three to UConn, UCLA, and Vanderbilt this season.
Score prediction: Texas 68, Michigan 62
💰 Michigan vs. Texas prediction & best bet
Under 139.5 (-110)
Michigan is allowing just 62.2 points per game, and the Wolverines have been excellent at holding great offenses to low scores. Michigan held UConn and Vanderbilt to 72, while also holding UCLA to 69. Both averaged over 83 points per game.
Texas' defense is even better, allowing just 56.3 points per game. The Longhorns are holding opponents to just 38.3% from the floor and 29.2% from 3-point range. While Michigan may keep this close, the Wolverines won't be able to score in bunches, as they average just 6.7 3-pointers per game.
🔥 Best Michigan vs. Texas player prop bet
Rori Harmon Under 8.5 points (-112)
Harmon is averaging exactly 8.5 points and has scored at least nine in each of her last two games. However, she has scored more than eight in just three of her last 13 games. She also doesn't have a very high ceiling, scoring more than 12 points twice all season.
Harmon only averages 7.5 shots per game, as her main focus is on getting her teammates involved. She leads Texas with 6.2 assists per game and should be able to excel in that category against a Michigan defense that is allowing 13.2 per contest (209th in the country).
🚀 Michigan vs. Texas same-game parlay
Unfortunately, FanDuel is the only sportsbook allowing this three-leg parlay, so rather than getting the Under at 139.5, I have to take it at 138.5. Still, I expect this to be a low-scoring game that Michigan keeps close, as both teams have been excellent defensively. And while Harmon has been a productive scorer in recent games, I don't see enough opportunities for her in this contest.
💵 Michigan vs. Texas SGP picks
- Michigan +9.5
- Under 138.5
- Rori Harmon Under 8.5 points
Best odds: +417 via FanDuel (1u -> 4.17u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-47 | +68.38 units ✅ | 53.4% ✅ |
| Game picks | 31-19 | +28.05 units ✅ | 38.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 11-11 | -3.05 units ❌ | -8.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 7-17 | +43.38 units ✅ | +211.6% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Michigan vs. Texas: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Michigan's defense is battle-tested, and though Texas has one of the best offenses in the country, I'm willing to risk two units on the Under in this game. I also expect Michigan to keep this game close, and I'll risk one unit on them getting the points, since, with the exception of two games against Iowa, the Wolverines have been very competitive against the nation's best teams this season. And with a low ceiling, I'm fading Harmon, who has topped her season average in back-to-back games, wagering one unit on her Under.
📊 Live Michigan vs. Texas odds: Women's March Madness Elite Eight
Michigan opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but the spread has dropped to 9.5 at every major sportsbook. I wouldn't be surprised to see this number continue to drop, as the public realizes how well Michigan has played against top teams this year. As for the total, it opened at 138.5, and it has increased to 139.5. I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 140.5, so I'll wait to get in on the Under, as I'm happy playing this as low as 137.5.
📺 How to watch Michigan vs. Texas: Women's March Madness Elite Eight
- Date: Monday, March 30
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Dickies Arena (Fort Worth, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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