🏀 Michigan vs. Duke Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (Feb. 21)
College basketball fans will be treated to a rare non-conference clash in February (and a potential national championship preview) when No. 1 Michigan and No. 3 Duke clash at 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, on ESPN.
You want to bet on this game. I want to bet on this game. Let’s dive into this epic showdown with a score prediction and a plus-money player prop in my Michigan vs. Duke prediction, shall we?
🏀 Michigan vs. Duke picks & odds today: Feb. 21
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Michigan to win (-142) | 1.42u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 148.5 (-110) | 0.5u -> 0.45u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 3-pointers (+144) | 0.5u -> 0.72u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.42 units | Max profit: 2.17 units
💰 Michigan vs. Duke prediction & best bet
Michigan ML (-142)
I like getting a non-conference clash in late February because it’s a reminder that not every team faces the same level of competition in league play.
Duke hasn’t been tested since facing ACC foes, with its lone loss (at North Carolina) being its toughest test. Michigan, considered the best team in college basketball, has won 11 in a row after defeating Purdue (No. 8 overall on KenPom) by nine on Tuesday. Duke has faced only one team ranked in the top 30 on KenPom since December.
It might seem like simple analysis, but I’m comfortable backing the better and more tested team ahead of Saturday’s showdown. DraftKings offers the best moneyline value on Michigan.
Score prediction: Michigan 78, Duke 74
🔥 Best Michigan vs. Duke player prop bet
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 3-pointers (+144)
Duke has the best player in this game in potential No. 1 overall pick Cameron Boozer, but Michigan has an impressive power forward in 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. He’s averaging 14.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
What I like most about Lendeborg’s game is that he’s comfortable stepping out and hitting a 3-pointer. He hit three triples against Purdue, marking his 10th game with two or more 3-pointers.
Duke ranks 330th in defensive 3-point rate allowed, so don’t be surprised if Lendeborg focuses on making Boozer defend him on the perimeter. This line is as high as +144 at FanDuel.
🚀 Michigan vs. Duke same-game parlay
I can’t parlay Yaxel Lendeborg’s 3-point prop with anything on FanDuel, so I’m comfortable taking the Over on his scoring line (13.5) instead. Don’t be surprised if he’s motivated to make a statement against the best player in college basketball.
💵 Michigan vs. Duke SGP picks
- Michigan ML (-142)
- Yaxel Lendeborg Over 13.5 points (-114)
- Over 148.5 (-115)
Best odds: +337 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.34u)
College basketball Play of the Day
Here is LJ Blut's X video Play of the Day that features Michigan -2.5.
Michigan is in a prime spot to take down Duke tonight, especially with this being a true neutral-site matchup. Without the Cameron Indoor edge, Duke loses a major advantage, and that exposes a team that has looked slightly overrated against elite competition.
Michigan’s physicality, defensive versatility, and ability to control tempo should travel well in this setting. If the Wolverines limit turnovers and win the battle on the glass, they can dictate the flow. In a pressure environment away from home, Michigan’s toughness gives them the edge and a statement opportunity.
If you want to read more about this pick, College basketball Play of the Day.
💡 How I'm betting Michigan vs. Duke
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
I’m content with having nearly 2.5 units between three different angles for Saturday’s Michigan vs. Duke showdown. That is in line with a typical bankroll for a game I’ve broken down in detail.
But make no mistake, my main play is on Michigan moneyline, as I expect the Wolverines to flex their muscles against the Blue Devils.
📊 Live Michigan vs. Duke odds
Michigan has remained a 2.5-point favorite since lines were released, but the moneyline price tag has moved in Duke’s favor. At BetMGM, the Blue Devils have gone from +135 to +125. I would expect the lines to move a bit further in Duke’s favor ahead of tipoff.
📈 Michigan vs. Duke betting trends
| Michigan | Statistic | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| 25-1 | W-L record | 24-2 |
| 14-12 | ATS record | 14-12 |
| 11-15 | O/U record | 8-18 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
📺 How to watch Michigan vs. Duke
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 21
- Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, DC)
- TV: ESPN
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