🏀 March Madness Win Probability: Arizona, Michigan Lead Final Four Odds at Prediction Markets

College basketball fans rejoiced on Sunday night after the shot heard 'round the world that slayed the Duke Blue Devils, who entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament with the highest March Madness win probability to cut down the nets next week.

Now, with the Final Four set to tip off Saturday, there's been a massive shift in the prediction market odds. Arizona (35%) and Michigan (34%) are the clear favorites at Kalshi, one of the best prediction apps for trading on sports, with Illinois (18%) and UConn (14%) dealing as long shots in a market with $200 million in trading volume entering this week.

Here's a look at the latest March Madness odds and win probabilities for every team with my pick to win it all as part of our March Madness predictions entering the Final Four.

📊 March Madness win probability: Odds to win NCAA Tournament 2026

Duke entered the NCAA Tournament as the favorite to win it all, but the Blue Devils had seen their March Madness odds dwindle ahead of their eventual exit in the Elite Eight.

Meanwhile, Arizona and Michigan have both handled their business throughout the tournament, which is why they are effectively the co-favorites at Kalshi ahead of their semifinal clash on Saturday. Illinois is the lowest seed in the Final Four, but UConn has the longest odds despite knocking off the top overall seed in Duke.

Here are the full win probabilities for each team to win the college basketball tournament at Kalshi as of Monday, March 30, with the conversion to American odds via our odds converter and the price to buy "yes" shares in the prediction market:

March Madness win probability entering Final Four

🏆 Who will win March Madness? Latest odds & win probabilities

Just four teams remain in the NCAA Tournament, and two of them are the clear favorites to cut down the nets next Monday despite playing each other on Saturday:

Arizona: 35% chance to win March Madness (+186)

Arizona (36-2) enters the Final Four as the narrow favorite to win it all with a 35% chance to win the NCAA Tournament according to the latest odds from prediction markets. The Wildcats have won 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation, with four tournament wins by double digits and a star-studded cast led by Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries, and Koa Peat. The biggest concern might be the uncertainty at head coach with Tommy Lloyd among the favorites in the UNC next coach odds to leave Arizona.

Michigan: 34% chance to win March Madness (+194)

Michigan (35-3) is the first team in tournament history to win four games by double digits while scoring 90-plus in each, and it enters the Final Four as the top-ranked team in KenPom net rating with a top-five offense and the No. 1 defense in the country. Yaxel Lendeborg has been a man possessed with 20-plus points in three straight tournament games - the first Wolverine to do that since Juwan Howard in 1994 - while Dusty May's squad is shooting 44.6% from deep while hitting at least 10 threes in every game so far.

Illinois: 18% chance to win March Madness (+456)

Illinois (28-8) is making its first Final Four appearance since 2005 after a surprising run through the South Region, capped off by a gutsy win over Houston in the Cougars' own backyard before outlasting Iowa in the Elite Eight. Freshman guard Keaton Wagler leads the way with 17.5 PPG while shooting 44% from deep in the tournament for a team with the No. 1 offense by KenPom and five players averaging in double figures.

UConn: 14% chance to win March Madness (+614)

UConn (32-5) is the biggest long shot remaining in the Final Four despite winning two of the last three national championships. Head coach Dan Hurley is 10-0 straight up / against the spread in the Sweet 16 or later, though the Huskies needed to erase a 19-point deficit with a miracle heave in the closing seconds to beat Duke in the Elite Eight.

🏀 Final Four win probabilities: Odds to win NCAA Tournament semifinals

Here are the latest odds and win probabilities via Kalshi for Saturday's semifinal games:

Illinois vs. UConn win probability (8:49 PM ET, TBS/TNT/truTV)

See our Illinois vs. UConn prediction with a full breakdown of the Final Four.

Michigan vs. Arizona win probability (8:49 PM ET, TBS/TNT/truTV)

See our Michigan vs. Arizona prediction with a full breakdown of the Final Four.

More Final Four predictions & expert picks

• Final Four power rankings
• Final Four survivor picks

⚖️ How to trade on March Madness

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple yes/no contracts. For the 2026 NCAA Tournament, that means markets tied to questions like which team wins the national championship, which player wins tournament MVP honors, and more related markets.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think Arizona will win the national championship and buy a "Yes" contract at 35 cents, that implies a 35% chance. If Arizona wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 65 cents per share. If Arizona loses, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations and shifts with every upset, injury update, and bracket result across the tournament's three weeks.

How to read prediction market odds

Kalshi displays prices in cents, which represent the implied probability of an outcome. Arizona at 35 cents means the market prices a 35% chance the Wildcats win the championship - buy "Yes" at 35 cents and collect $1 if they win, profiting 65 cents along the way.

Here's a simple breakdown of the conversion from Kalshi prices to American odds:

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting?

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways. At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 20 cents implies a 20% chance of winning - the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the tournament ends - locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your loss if your team gets upset.