Bracket Busters: March Madness Round 1 Underdog Picks

Who'll bust your bracket? We make our Round 1 underdog picks for March Madness. Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Henry John

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:39 PM EDT • 8 minute read

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March Madness is all about the upsets, and we have you covered with five outright underdog picks spanning all four regions for the First Round of this year’s tournament.

It is an undisputed fact that sports betting underdogs have more prominence in the NCAA Tournament than in any other event or league. The entirety of college basketball’s national championship tournament is billed on chaos, upsets, and unpredictability. Year after year, March Madness underdogs come through in the most magical of ways.

Just when fans and bettors think they’ve seen it all, a new loveable underdog is born. Last year, it was 15-seed Oral Roberts that captured the hearts of the nation and nearly reached the Elite Eight. The nature of the beast in a single-elimination format makes even the most improbable outcomes possible.

With the heart of the 2022 NCAA Tournament set to begin on Thursday, bettors and bracket connoisseurs are trying to pinpoint from where exactly the big upsets will come this year. The nice thing about March Madness betting is that one can still get behind an underdog to cover the point spread. Even if the team falls short of an outright victory, bettors can still cash tickets if the underdog keeps the final margin within the spread.

Here are my best underdog bets for the First Round of the NCAA Tournament based on the odds from our top-rated sportsbooks.

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March Madness Round 1 Underdog Picks

New Mexico State (+240 viaCaesars Sportsbook) vs. UConn ???San Francisco (+115 via Caesars) vs. Murray State ????Chattanooga (+280 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Illinois ?UAB (+310 via BetMGM) vs. Houston ???Colgate (+270 via BetMGM) vs. Wisconsin ??

March Madness Upset Predictions

New Mexico State (+240)

The 5-12 matchups in the First Round always seem to produce an upset or two each year. Of the four 12-seeds in this year’s bracket, New Mexico State arguably has the most appeal as a betting underdog to win outright. After a down year for the program, head coach Chris Jans and the Aggies resurfaced as WAC Champions and are back in the Big Dance. NMSU will tangle with UConn out of the Big East to begin the tournament.

Although this year’s New Mexico State team may not be the deepest that Jans has had during his tenure as head coach, it is quite clearly the most talented. The Aggies have one man to thank for that: guard Teddy Allen. Affectionately known as “Teddy Buckets”, Allen has the size, talent and strength of a future pro playing at a mid-major school. He earned WAC Player of the Year honors after averaging 19.3 points per game this season.

Prior to joining the NMSU program, Allen starred as the featured scoring option for Nebraska in the Big Ten. Needless to say, going up against Power 6 competition is nothing new for him. Add in big men Will McNair Jr., and Johnny McCants, as well as veteran point guard Sir’Jabari Rice, and the Aggies have plenty of proven scorers that will serve them well against a highly-efficient Huskies offense.

New Mexico State also has more size than the typical mid-major squad. UConn is one of the most storied programs in college basketball, but the Huskies had better be ready for a major First Round test. The Aggies have been close to springing a March Madness upset numerous times over the past decade. Might this veteran group be the one to get over the hump?

San Francisco (+115)

In many respects, it's a shame that Murray State and San Francisco have to play against one another in the First Round of the tournament. These are two mid-majors who had excellent seasons. The Racers have not lost a game since before Christmas and were perfect in the Ohio Valley Conference this season. Meanwhile, the Dons rose to the occasion and earned an at-large bid with a successful campaign in what was perhaps the best West Coast Conference competition ever.

Oddsmakers actually opened USF as a short favorite for this game before the market drove the line through pick’em to favor Murray State. Although the line move through zero is not necessarily the most significant adjustment, it does set the Dons up as a First Round underdog to consider.

San Francisco is led by the veteran backcourt duo of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. The two seniors averaged 16.7 and 14.0 points per game, respectively, and were a regular staple of a Dons offense that loves to shoot the three-ball. USF finished the year with a top-100 3-point shooting percentage as a team. Big man Yauhen Massalski also averaged in double figures to go along with 9.4 boards and 2.2 blocks per game.

According to KenPom, San Francisco actually comes in six spots higher than 30-win Murray State. The Dons certainly played against better competition in conference than the Racers. With a defensive efficiency ranking of No. 21 in the country, USF figures to be able to slow down Murray State’s highly-efficient offense.

Chattanooga (+280)

Much like New Mexico State, Southern Conference Champion Chattanooga has a lot more in the way of size than the average mid-major program. The Mocs were the class of a highly-competitive SoCon all season and will get a chance to shock the college basketball betting world against 4-seed Illinois in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, the Fighting Illini are synonymous with size for many people thanks to the presence of center Kofi Cockburn. While the 7-footer will still be the biggest player on the court in this First Round matchup, Chattanooga will not be completely overwhelmed. Senior forward Silvio De Sousa stands 6-foot-9 and is listed at 250 pounds. He figures to be tasked with keeping Cockburn from dominating the glass.

In terms of offensive production, De Sousa was joined by guards Malachi Smith and David Jean-Baptiste in averaging double figures scoring on the year. Smith posted 20.1 points per game and also led Chattanooga in assists. The Mocs averaged 110.0 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

When it comes to metrics, the Mocs are ranked 63rd overall in the NET and 70th in KenPom. Chattanooga is without a doubt one of the strongest mid-major programs in the country. Considering that Illinois does not have the backcourt play it did a year ago, the Mocs match up well and have a real path to scoring a First Round upset.

UAB (+310)

For the record, Houston got the short end of the stick on Selection Sunday, after head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team was a 2-seed in last year’s March Madness bracket. As a result, Houston must deal with a pesky UAB squad in the infamous 5-12 matchup spot.

While this will be UAB’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since the 2014-15 season, the Blazers’ Conference USA cohorts have been a regular thorn in the side of their higher-seeded opponents in the Big Dance. Just last year, North Texas took down Purdue in a 3-14 matchup. Although the Mean Green were the top seed in this year’s C-USA Tournament, it’s the Blazers who sit atop the conference in the KenPom rankings at No. 47 overall entering postseason play.

Of course, Houston is a top-4 team in both KenPom and the college basketball NET. This again suggests that the Cougars as a 5-seed was a misstep by the selection committee. That being said, UAB could likely give even some of the top teams in the country a true test in a one-game sample.

Junior guard Jordan Walker leads four Blazers scorers who averaged in double figures on the season with 20.4 points per game. From an efficiency standpoint, UAB ranks 27th in the country offensively. After a very impressive run in the C-USA Tournament, the Blazers certainly enter March Madness with momentum. UAB has all the vitals to become the next Conference USA team to pull off a bracket-busting win.

Colgate (+270)

Bettors might recall that Colgate was a part of March Madness last year as well. In fact, the Raiders very nearly knocked off Arkansas in a thrilling First Round matchup. Not only did Colgate repeat as Patriot League champion but the majority of last year’s team is still intact. Might the experience gained last season be enough to push Colgate to an upset win of an overseeded Wisconsin team?

KenPom ranked Colgate as a top-100 offense in adjusted efficiency this season and 3-point shooting was a massive part of this. The Raiders connected on 40.26% of attempts from deep this season, the second-best percentage in the country. Successful shooting from beyond the arc is so often a key ingredient in mid-majors springing upsets in the tournament.

One key element that separates Colgate from other mid-major programs is their depth and versatility on the offensive end. In total, five Raiders averaged in double figures this season. With a nod to experience, each of the top three players on this list is a senior. Furthermore, Nelly Cummings, Jack Ferguson and Tucker Richardson are all listed as guards. So often in postseason tournament competition, backcourt play rules the day.

As for Wisconsin, it has been all downhill since clinching a share of the Big Ten regular-season title. The Badgers were one-and-done in the conference tournament. Furthermore, Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis has been battling a lower-body injury. If this lingers over into the NCAA Tournament, Colgate becomes an even more promising March Madness upset pick.

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

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Written by:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.