March Madness Upset Picks: Ranking the 5-12 Matchups Most Likely to Continue Underdog Trend

Henry John

Last Updated: March 16, 2022 12:43 AM EDT • 5 min 44 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 12: Clayton Henry #5 of the New Mexico State Aggies looks for the open pass against the Abilene Christian Wildcats during the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference basketball tournament at the Orleans Arena on March 12, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Aggies defeated the Wildcats 66-52. Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Joe Buglewicz / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

We scout the 5-12 matchups in the opening round of March Madness in search of our top upset picks for the NCAA Tournament.

When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, upsets are fully expected. After all, the event’s nickname, “March Madness,” stems from the inevitable surprise results that take place. Such is the name of the game in a single-elimination basketball tournament. Literally, anything can happen in one, 40-minute game.

Over the years, the 5-12 matchups in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament have typically been THE games to target in the search for upset winners. Despite the fact that teams seeded fifth in the March Madness bracket are largely ranked in the final AP Poll of the season, these schools have been upset at a rate nearly identical to 6- and 7-seeds.

Although nothing is a given when it comes to March Madness, the proof is in the pudding when it comes to the success of 12-seeds both in springing outright upsets and in cashing ATS betting tickets. The following ranks the four 5-12 matchups in the 2022 NCAA Tournament in order of likelihood that the underdog springs an outright betting upset.

March Madness 5-12 Matchup Upset History

Over the past 40 years, 50 different 12-seeds have knocked off a 5-seed in the opening round of the Big Dance. For the record, 52 total 11-seeds have defeated 6-seeds over that same span while 55 10-seeds have beaten 7-seeds.

So, how about from a college basketball betting standpoint? Well, 12-seeds have also performed remarkably well against the spread (ATS) in their First Round March Madness games against 5-seeds. Dating back to 2005, 12-seeds have gone 37-27-2 ATS in the First Round, good for a cover percentage of 56.5.

Over the past five years, that level of profitability has actually increased dramatically. The 12-seeds have gone 12-7-1 ATS, for a cover rate of 63.2%. On top of that, the last five years have seen 12-seeds cover the point spread by an average of 3.48 points!

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March Madness 5-12 Upset Picks

New Mexico State (+250 viaCaesars Sportsbook) vs. UConn ???UAB (+340 via BetMGM) vs. Houston ??Indiana (+130 via DraftKings Sportsbook) vs. Saint Mary’s ??Richmond (+450 via Caesars) vs. Iowa ?

March Madness Upset Ranking

New Mexico State (+250)

Out of the four 5-12 First Round games in this year’s NCAA Tournament, the West Region battle between New Mexico State and UConn is the one to target for an outright upset. This prediction is much more about what NMSU is as a 12-seed as opposed to what UConn is not as a 5-seed. After a down year for the program, head coach Chris Jans and the Aggies resurfaced as WAC Champions and are back in the Big Dance.

Although this year’s New Mexico State team may not be the deepest that Jans has had during his tenure, it is quite clearly the most talented. The Aggies have one man to thank for that: guard Teddy Allen. Affectionately known as “Teddy Buckets”, Allen has the size, talent and strength of a future pro playing at a mid-major school. He earned WAC Player of the Year honors after averaging 19.3 points per game this season.

Prior to joining the NMSU program, Allen starred as the featured scoring option for Nebraska in the Big Ten. Needless to say, going up against Power 6 competition is nothing new for him. Add in big men Will McNair Jr., and forward Johnny McCants, as well as veteran point guard Sir’Jabari Rice, and the Aggies have plenty of proven scorers that will serve them well against a highly-efficient Huskies offense.

The fact that New Mexico State also has above-average size for a mid-major program only adds to the allure of picking the Aggies for an outright upset. UConn is one of the most storied programs in college basketball, but the Huskies had better be ready for a major First Round test.

UAB (+340)

For the record, Houston got the raw end of the deal on Selection Sunday. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team was a 2-seed in last year’s March Madness bracket. Despite taking care of business by winning both a regular-season and tournament championship in the AAC this season, the committee decided the Cougars were no better than the 5-seed in the South Region. As a result, Houston must deal with a pesky UAB squad in the infamous 5-12 matchup spot.

While this will be UAB’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since the 2014-15 season, the Blazers’ Conference USA cohorts have been a regular thorn in the side of their higher-seeded opponents in the Big Dance. Just last year, North Texas took down Purdue in a 3-14 matchup. Although the Mean Green were the top seed in this year’s C-USA Tournament, it’s the Blazers who sit atop the conference in KenPom at No. 47 overall entering tournament play.

Of course, Houston is a top-four team in both KenPom and the college basketball NET. This again suggests that the Cougars as a 5-seed was a misstep by the selection committee. That being said, UAB could likely give even some of the top teams in the country a true test in a one-game sample size.

Junior guard Jordan Walker leads four Blazers who averaged in double figures scoring on the season with 20.4 points per game. From an efficiency standpoint, UAB ranks 28th in the country offensively. While an outright upset will be a tall task, bettors should give the Blazers a long hard look as an ATS play catching 8.5 points.

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Indiana (+130)

With Indiana and Wyoming playing in a First Four matchup on Tuesday night the Hoosiers' Round 1 matchup with the Saint Mary's Gaels is finally set.

Saint Mary’s actually enters the NCAA Tournament ranked 16th in the country, according to KenPom, but head coach Randy Bennett’s team wound up being the mid-major against a power conference opponent with Indiana advancing from the First Four. Despite needing to play an extra game, Indiana is just a +130 underdog on the moneyline after beating Wyoming 66-58.

Indiana is quite likely to be a heavily-backed underdog. If anything, bettors should opt to explore backing the Hoosiers against the spread as opposed to outright. This Saint Mary’s team is completely legit. The Gaels ranked ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing all of 89.9 points per 100 possessions.

If Saint Mary’s was capable of putting on a defensive clinic against Gonzaga as it did in the regular-season finale, it can certainly stymie a mid-tier Big Ten team in Indiana. With plenty of seniors, the moment doesn’t figure to be too big for the Gaels either.

Richmond (+450)

In general, laying points is never something one should be rushing to do in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament. While the odds of Richmond knocking off Iowa outright are greater than 4-1, the Spiders are certainly worth considering at +10.5 ATS in this matchup between conference tournament champions.

Like Houston, one could make a case that sending Iowa to a 5-12 matchup was an error on the part of the selection committee. This is especially true considering the great deal of respect the committee showed the Big Ten Conference elsewhere in the bracket. Nonetheless, the Hawkeyes will have to contend with a Richmond team that was this year’s true “bid-stealer”.

The Spiders were seeded sixth in the A10 Tournament, yet managed to win four games in four days to secure an automatic bid to the Big Dance. Although the difference between Richmond (No. 82) and Iowa (No. 13) in the KenPom ratings is drastic, the Spiders do have one thing going for them that statistics cannot quantify: experience. Thanks to the NCAA granting student-athletes an extra year of eligibility, Richmond returned several fifth-year seniors this season.

Point guard Jacob Gilyard is one of the best all-around players in the Atlantic 10 Conference. Along with dishing 5.4 assists per game, Gilyard averaged a whopping 3.1 steals for the Spiders this season. Big man Grant Golden and guard Nathan Cayo also took advantage of the added year of eligibility. Meanwhile, junior forward Tyler Burton took a massive leap forward offensively to lead the team with 16.3 points per game. This is a proud Spiders team that is more than capable of staying within a double-digit spread against the Big Ten champs.

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Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.