🏀 March Madness Survivor Pool Picks: Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Strategy
The NCAA Tournament is all about surviving and advancing, and it's not just the teams that reached the Sweet 16 who had to fight to stay alive through the first weekend of the tournament; so did everyone making March Madness survivor pool picks.
If you've made it this far, this is when the heat turns up with just 25% of the 64-team field left in the two most pivotal rounds for survivor pools, the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
After going 8-for-8 with my survivor picks over the first weekend, I've mapped out the direction I'm going based on my March Madness bracket predictions for the rest of the NCAA Tournament.
π March Madness survivor pool power rankings: Sweet 16
For more on survivor pools, check out my March Madness survivor pool strategy guide.
| Rank | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No. 1 Arizona | No. 4 Arkansas |
| 2 | No. 1 Michigan | No. 4 Alabama |
| 3 | No. 1 Duke | No. 5 St. John's |
| 4 | No. 2 Purdue | No. 11 Texas |
| 5 | No. 4 Nebraska | No. 9 Iowa |
| 6 | No. 2 Iowa State | No. 6 Tennessee |
| 7 | No. 3 Michigan State | No. 2 UConn |
| 8 | No. 2 Houston | No. 3 Illinois |
π Best March Madness survivor picks by round
Don't miss our March Madness second-chance bracket picks.
Sweet 16 survivor pick: Arizona
The plan was always to completely avoid burning a No. 1 seed during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament to help make the second weekend easier to navigate.
But the Sweet 16 is the most pivotal round for survivor, and there's no shame in using a No. 1-seeded Arizona that's tied for the highest net rating in the country (+37.83).
The Wildcats are the only team that's ranked in the top four nationally in both offensive (127.9) and defensive rating (90.1), and they take on an Arkansas team that has the third-lowest net rating of any remaining teams (+25.85).
🐗 Acuff may not be enough
Although our Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction has John Calipari's team covering the spread, the Razorbacks would need an all-time outing from Darius Acuff Jr. to pull the upset.
And for as good as Acuff is, the Razorbacks don't have the depth around him to compete with a March Madness odds favorite that has one of the best seven-man rotations in college basketball.
Elite Eight survivor pick: Winner of Houston/Illinois
Assuming Arizona wins in the Sweet 16, I already know which teams I'm planning to target in the Elite Eight.
I'm going with the winner of Illinois vs. Houston, who will take on the winner of Iowa vs. Nebraska. The Cougars and Fighting Illini are No. 4 and No. 6 in net rating, respectively, and both rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
They both have the offensive firepower to penetrate the Cornhuskers' top-10 defense and to counter the Hawkeyes' snail-paced offense.
While I'm happy to take Illinois if it upsets Houston, I expect the Cougars to reach the Final Four because they're clearly the most well-rounded team outside of the big three.
Kelvin Sampson has a proven track record of success, the No. 4 defense, and a projected top-10 pick (Kingston Flemings) leading one of the best offenses he's had at Houston.
β οΈ Survivor picks: Sweet 16 game to avoid
Have questions, like what is a March Madness survivor pool? We've got answers.
Iowa vs. Nebraska
I know it's tempting to take Nebraska in the Sweet 16 after the Cornhuskers' electric upset of Vanderbilt in the best game of the NCAA Tournament thus far, but just because Iowa is a No. 9 seed doesn't mean this is a cakewalk.
Four reasons I'm steering clear of this game: Ben McCollum is one of the best basketball coaches on the planet, Bennett Stirtz is one of the scariest shooters left in the tournament, anything can happen in a rivalry game, and Nebraska is only a 1.5-point betting favorite at our best March Madness betting sites.
Dating back to his time at Northwest Missouri State (Division II), McCollum is 38-8 in NCAA Tournament games. There's a reason this game has the smallest spread of the Sweet 16, despite the seed disparity.
πΊοΈ Mapping out survivor picks: Sweet 16 to the championship game
This is my plan for my round-by-round March Madness survivor pool the rest of the way.
| Round | Team | Opponent/potential opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Sweet 16 | No. 1 Arizona | No. 4 Arkansas |
| Elite Eight | Winner of No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston | No. 4 Nebraska |
| Final Four | No. 1 Michigan | No. 1 Arizona |
| Championship | No. 1 Duke | No. 1 Michigan |
π΅ My survivor picks for March Madness
I'm making two separate survivor pool picks each day for two different survivor pools.
| Round (day) | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 (Thursday) | Arkansas β | Arkansas 97, Hawaii 78 |
| Round 1 (Thursday) | Vanderbilt β | Vanderbilt 78, McNeese 68 |
| Round 1 (Friday) | Kansas β | Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60 |
| Round 1 (Friday) | Virginia β | Virginia 82, Wright State 73 |
| Round 2 (Saturday) | Illinois β | Illinois 76, VCU 55 |
| Round 2 (Saturday) | Michigan State β | Michigan State 77, Louisville 69 |
| Round 2 (Sunday) | Purdue β | Purdue 79, Miami 69 |
| Round 2 (Sunday) | Iowa State β | Iowa State 82, Kentucky 63 |
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