🏀 March Madness Odds 2026: Championship Best Bet Ahead of Sweet 16
There will be a new team celebrating at the end of the NCAA Tournament after the defending champions, Florida, were knocked off by No. 9 seed Iowa in the Round of 32. However, the March Madness odds are still dominated by the remaining No. 1 seeds.
While Michigan (+300) is the clear favorite heading into the Sweet 16, my March Madness predictions and best championship bet still side with a program that already beat the Wolverines once this season.
📊 March Madness odds 2026
March Madness odds via FanDuel.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | +300 | 25.0% |
| Arizona | +330 | 23.3% |
| Duke | +420 | 19.2% |
| Houston | +750 | 11.8% |
| Purdue | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Illinois | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Iowa State | +1700 | 5.6% |
| UConn | +2700 | 3.6% |
| Michigan State | +3000 | 3.2% |
| St. John's | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Arkansas | +4500 | 2.2% |
| Tennessee | +5500 | 1.8% |
| Nebraska | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Alabama | +10000 | 1.0% |
| Iowa | +10000 | 1.0% |
| Texas | +20000 | 0.5% |
🏆 March Madness best bet
Duke (+450)
Was the Siena scare in Round 1 slightly concerning? Absolutely. Yet, Duke erased a 13-point second-half deficit to outscore the Saints 39-20 in the final 19 minutes of the game. Then, the Blue Devils physically dominated a TCU team in the second round that had beaten Ohio State bloody in the first game of the NCAA Tournament.
The 23-point win over a Horned Frogs team that had played Michigan close and upset Florida and Iowa State earlier this season put my full confidence back in Jon Scheyer's team. Coming into March Madness, Duke was my pick, and I'm still riding with Cameron Boozer and Co.
Even if Caleb Foster can't play in the Sweet 16, getting Patrick Ngongba back is game-changing. He anchors a Blue Devils' defense that's No. 1 in the country in adjusted efficiency (89.5) and ranks top 10 in both effective field-goal percentage (45.9%) and offensive rebound rate (24.9%).
Much like with the Michigan team Duke beat in February, guard play is the biggest question. Still, Cayden Boozer has flashed improvement, and Isaiah Evans is a microwave scorer that's as dangerous as almost any guard in the Sweet 16 when he heats up.
And at the end of the day, Boozer is the March Madness MVP odds favorite for a reason. He's averaging 20.5 PPG, 12 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, and a block thus far in the NCAA Tournament. The freshman is the best player in the country and can take over, as he did in the win over the Wolverines.
💤 March Madness sleeper
Illinois (+1600)
The winner of Illinois vs. Houston on Thursday night is the only team that I can see having any shot of unseating the big three of this college basketball season. And while I don't truly believe the Fighting Illini or Cougars can take down Duke and then either Arizona or Michigan, they're clearly the fourth and fifth-best teams left in the NCAA Tournament.
Though Houston is the best Final Four odds bet on the board (+110), I actually think Illinois would be a bigger challenger to the big three if Brad Underwood's team can put down the Cougars.
At its best, Illinois is an impossible team to defend. The Fighting Illini are the tallest team in the country, averaging 6-foot-7, and an offensive juggernaut.
Led by projected top 10 pick Keaton Wagler, Illinois is No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency (131.6), No. 3 in offensive rebound rate (39.2%), and No. 9 in turnover rate (13.1%).
And while Wagler runs the show (17.8 PPG, 4.4 APG), Illinois has four other players averaging double digits and six total players averaging at least 1.3 made 3-pointers per game. The scoring depth and size of Illinois will make them a frustrating matchup for the top three teams in the country, all of whom rank in the top three in defensive efficiency.
That ability to take over a game with its offense is why Illinois is the best championship bet on the board among teams with odds of +1000 or longer.
💰 March Madness betting action: 10 most bet teams
March Madness betting insights via BetMGM.
| Team | Handle percentage | Ticket percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 18.1% | 10.7% |
| Michigan | 12.3% | 10.3% |
| 9.8% | 7.3% | |
| Duke | 9.8% | 9.5% |
| Houston | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| UConn | 6.3% | 5% |
| Purdue | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| St. John's | 3.1% | 3.9% |
| Arkansas | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| Iowa State | 2.9% | 4.1% |
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