March Madness Odds at Thanksgiving: Will Purdue or Duke Be Able To Live up to the Hype?

Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament isn't for more than three months, but with Feast Week in full effect, the March Madness odds continue to take shape, with the top of the board being owned by perennial powerhouse programs.

No. 1 Purdue is a +850 favorite to win the NCAA Tournament at Thanksgiving, but blue bloods like Duke (+1000) and UConn (+1300), and consistent threats like Houston (+1300) and Gonzaga (+1500) aren't far behind. Meanwhile, freshman phenoms and transfer portal stars across the country have injected sizzle into several other programs. But who will get to bask in One Shining Moment whilst cutting down the nets on April 6 in Indianapolis?

📊 Live March Madness odds 2026

Our March Madness odds update in real time based on the latest college basketball odds.

🚂 Favorite to win March Madness: Purdue (+850)

Matt Painter's team has certainly earned its No. 1 ranking and spot atop the March Madness odds this season. Less than a month into the season, the Boilermakers already have a ranked road win over Alabama and an MTE championship win over a ranked Texas Tech on their resume.

With proven commodities in seniors Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, and Oscar Cluff, this is the type of veteran lineup capable of surviving and advancing in March. Purdue is the No. 2-ranked team by KenPom, sits No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Smith ranks as the No. 2 player in the country by EvanMiya's BPR metric.

An explosive offense with trusted veterans and a coach who's just two seasons removed from reaching the national title is a good recipe for winning it all. However, Purdue's offense-first approach does scare me off to some degree, especially when this team doesn't have a singular NBA type scorer capable of taking over a game if the rest of the lineup gets cold in a do-or-die scenario.

While I think Purdue is certainly a worthwhile team to back, with a $10 bet paying an $85 profit, the inconsistent defensive play has me in wait-and-see mode this far out. Especially when there are other programs with the potential to ascend as their young NBA talent gets more experience.

😈 Prediction to win March Madness: Duke (+1000)

Speaking of young NBA talent, Duke freshman Cameron Boozer has lived up to his five-star billing early in his collegiate career. The son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer leads the Wooden Award odds and is ranked the No. 1 player in the country by EvanMiya's BPR metric.

Boozer's been a monster, with his size (6-foot-9, 250 pounds) and skill being a complete mismatch so far, which has helped Duke not skip a beat after losing Cooper Flagg (and four other players) to the NBA. But it's not just Boozer who makes Duke a potential threat to win its first title post-Mike Krzyzewski. 

Jon Scheyer's team has rising sophomores in Isaiah Evans, who is one of the most terrifying scorers in the country when he gets hot, and defensive anchor Patrick Ngongba, who ranks No. 3 in the country in DBPR (Boozer is No. 2). Plus, Caleb Foster is a steady presence in the back court while freshman Dame Sarr and Cayden Boozer (Cameron's twin) adjusted to collegiate play.

The Blue Devils have the potential to be the most well-rounded team in the country; they're one of just two teams that rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Gonzaga is the other). If Scheyer's underclassmen continue to grow, the sky is the limit for Duke. And if they win a title for the first time in a decade, a $10 bet pays a $100 profit.

🐦 Long shot to win March Madness: Kansas (+4000)

You might be thinking, Kansas is a long shot? Well, the Jayhawks shouldn't be but thanks to a pair of losses to North Carolina and Duke, on top of their freshman star being injured, Bill Self's team has seen its March Madness odds balloon since opening at +1600.

This is a buy-low play, with Darryn Peterson's injury being the key to it all. The projected top five was living up to the hype over his first two games, averaging 21.5 PPG and shooting 60% from the floor and 50% from three. But he hasn't played since aggravating his hamstring during pre-game shootaround in early November.

Luckily, Self hasn't made it sound like this is an injury we should be worried about long-term, which is why betting on Kansas now is a perfect value play. The Jayhawks have one of the best defenses in the country, ranking No. 9 in adjusted efficiency thanks to big man Flory Bidunga. The offensive end is where the struggles have happened for this team.

That's because they're down a scorer with NBA All-Star potential, who has already proven he can light up the scoreboard when he put 22 on the Tar Heels in just his second collegiate game. When he's back, Kansas will get back to being one of the best programs in the country, and these odds will be cut in half. Self recently said Peterson is week-to-week and he's "hopeful that it's soon" that he'll be back on the court.

At this price, if Kansas wins it all for the third time under Self, a $10 bet pays a $400 profit.

And if you want an even longer shot bet, consider Iowa at +10000. New Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum and star guard Bennett Stirtz were together at Northwest Missouri State before landing at Drake last year and putting a 31-4 record together for the Bulldogs. Now the pair is off to a hot start in the Big Ten at Iowa. 

❓March Madness FAQs

Who is the March Madness 2026 favorite?

Purdue is the 2026 March Madness odds favorite. The Boilermakers' odds (+850) imply a 10.53% probability that they'll win the NCAA Tournament, according to our odds calculator.

When is the college basketball national championship game?

The 2026 March Madness tournament will begin with Selection Sunday on Sunday, March 15. The NCAA Championship will be played on Monday, April 6.

Where is the college basketball national championship game?

The Final Four and national championship game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

When is March Madness?

Selection Sunday for March Madness is Sunday, March 15, with the First Four slated for March 17-18. The first round is March 19-20, with the second round March 21-22. The Sweet 16 (March 26-27) and Elite Eight (March 28-29) are the following weekend, with the Final Four (April 4) and national championship (April 6) a week later.

How to bet on March Madness

You can bet on March Madness at our best March Madness betting sites.