March Madness Bracket Predictions & Midwest Region Preview: Sleepers, Upsets & NCAA Tournament Favorites
Before the Midwest Regional heads to Detroit, each team must win two games to reach the Sweet 16 and beyond, and we offer our March Madness bracket predictions and Midwest Region preview based on the best March Madness odds.
The Purdue Boilermakers earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and are looking to atone for their loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year (the Boilermakers were the second-ever No. 16 seed to lose to a No. 1 seed).
But the Boilermakers are not the only high seed in this region who have suffered dubious NCAA Tournament fates, as No. 2 seed Tennessee lost to a No. 9 seed last year, and in the last five NCAA Tournaments, it has lost four times to teams seeded ninth or worse, with all of those teams seeded at least four lines below them.
The Midwest Region also features two of the three teams with the longest active NCAA Tournament streaks (No. 4 Kansas and No. 5 Gonzaga). There is also potential for a very intriguing Round of 32 matchup, as a potential Tennessee-Texas matchup would pit Rick Barnes against a Longhorns team he coached for 17 years.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our March Madness bracket predictions and Midwest Region preview (college basketball picks based on odds from our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
March Madness Midwest Region odds 2024
Here are the odds via FanDuel to win the Midwest Region.
| Team (Seed) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Purdue (1) | +165 |
| Tennessee (2) | +350 |
| Creighton (3) | +400 |
| Gonzaga (5) | +800 |
| Kansas (4) | +1300 |
| Texas (7) | +1600 |
| TCU (9) | +2500 |
| South Carolina (6) | +4000 |
| Oregon (11) | +5000 |
| Utah State (8) | +6000 |
| Virginia (10) | +8000 |
| McNeese State (12) | +8000 |
| Colorado State (10) | +8000 |
| Samford (13) | +10000 |
| Akron (14) | +13000 |
| Saint Peter's (15) | +25000 |
| Montana State (16) | +25000 |
| Grambling (16) | +50000 |
Not intended for use in MA
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March Madness Midwest Region picks
- Akron vs. Creighton
- Oregon vs. South Carolina
- Colorado State vs. Texas
- McNeese vs. Gonzaga
- Saint Peter's vs. Tennessee
- Samford vs. Kansas
- Montana State/Grambling vs. Purdue
- TCU vs. Utah State
March Madness betting odds pages
No. 1 seed: Purdue (+165 via FanDuel)
Not only did Purdue enter this season with the baggage of losing to a No. 16 seed last year, but it also lost to a No. 15 (Saint Peter’s) and No. 13 seed (North Texas) in the prior two NCAA Tournaments. However, if there is a silver lining for the Boilermakers, the last No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 won the championship the following season (2019 Virginia).
Purdue benefits from playing its first two games in its backyard in Indianapolis, and many pundits agree it was given the easiest path of all No. 1 seeds. However, we are looking at a potential Round of 32 upset if TCU can get past Utah State, as the Horned Frogs are a bad matchup for Purdue with how physical they are and how they can compete on the backboards. Ultimately, we have the Elite Eight as the ceiling for the Boilermakers and are foregoing their +165 odds at FanDuel to win the region.
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Sleeper pick: No. 9 TCU (+2500 via FanDuel)
TCU is a dangerous No. 9 seed hailing from the Big 12 conference, where it played 13 games against NCAA Tournament teams (including non-conference games) this season. The Horned Frogs are one of three teams to beat Houston this year, and they made a Big 12-best 38.8% of their 3-point attempts in league play this season. TCU averages 71.6 possessions per game (the fastest pace of any Big 12 team), which could frustrate a slower Big Ten team like Purdue, making Zach Edey less effective.
TCU is 0-3 all-time in the Round of 32, but we would like its chances in a potential meeting with Purdue, which means the +2500 odds you can get using our FanDuel promo code are a great value.
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1st-round upset pick: McNeese (No. 12 seed) vs. Gonzaga (No. 5 seed) (+225 via BetRivers)
No. 12 seeds are 53-99 SU all-time against No. 5 seeds, and this is always a popular upset pick in NCAA Tournament brackets, despite No. 5 seeds going 4-0 and winning by an average of 12 points per game last year.
McNeese is one of four teams that won 30-plus games this year, and it is outscoring opponents by 18.9 points per game, the largest margin in D-I. Late in the season, it was not a sure thing that Gonzaga would even make the NCAA Tournament, and though it did well to earn a No. 5 seed, its seven losses are the program’s most since 2015-16.
BetRivers is the only sportsbook offering better than +220 moneyline odds for McNeese to win outright, while Caesars is on the low end of that market at +205.
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Best 1st-round matchup: South Carolina (No. 6 seed) vs. Oregon (No. 11 seed)
South Carolina’s 26 wins entering the NCAA Tournament are tied for the most in school history. The only other time it won 26 games was in 2017 when it reached the Final Four. The Gamecocks face an Oregon team that was not projected anywhere close to the NCAA Tournament field until it rattled off three wins in three days to win the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, with two of those wins coming against NCAA Tournament teams (Arizona and Colorado).
Ducks head coach Dana Altman has never lost a first-round NCAA Tournament game in his tenure with Oregon, but we expect this to be his first. The Gamecocks do an outstanding job of running teams off the 3-point line (they had an SEC-best 31.5% 3-point attempt rate in league play).
Who will win the Midwest Region?
Tennessee (No. 2 seed) (+350 via FanDuel)
Not a single No. 2 seed has reached the title game since 2016, but we expect Tennessee to buck that trend, which has us loving its chances to reach the Final Four. Tennessee was long considered the likely fourth No. 1 seed before losing to Mississippi State by 17 points in the SEC Tournament, but the Volunteers have the defense (they ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency) and the player (SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht) to carry them to a title.
If Tennessee and Purdue meet in an Elite Eight matchup, it would be a rematch of a 71-67 early-season Boilermakers win at the Maui Invitational. However, we would side with the Volunteers in the rematch, especially because it will have had the experience of defending Zach Edey, and their physicality forced Purdue into 16 turnovers and 26.7% shooting from 3-point range.
FanDuel, DraftKings, and bet365 provide the best value for Tennessee backers who expect it to reach the Final Four at +350.
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