🏀 March Madness Midwest Region Predictions, Picks & Bracket Preview: 2026 NCAA Tournament

The Midwest Region features the best defense and arguably the best 3-point shooter in the country, and they could meet in the Elite Eight of the March Madness bracket.

That's just one of the intriguing storylines out of the Midwest Region, where Michigan is the top seed and betting favorite to advance over a group headlined Iowa State, Virginia, Alabama. Perennial SEC powers Tennessee and Kentucky loom large, though I have my eyes on a Big 12 team to cut down the nets in Chicago.

Below, I'm breaking down my March Madness Midwest Region predictions with my picks for every first-round matchup, upset rankings, and best bets to win the region.

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📋 March Madness Midwest Region bracket & first-round matchups

Odds via DraftKings as of Monday, March 16; all times listed in Eastern Time.

📊 Odds to win the Midwest Region

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🔮 Midwest Region predictions for every first-round matchup

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🏀 Michigan vs. UMBC/Howard prediction

Michigan (31-3) has looked like the best team in the country at times while finishing the year with the nation's top-ranked defense, allowing just 88.3 adjusted points per 100 possessions. The Wolverines have been dominant all season behind elite transfer Yaxel Lendeborg and enter as the betting favorite at some shops to win the national title. UMBC (24-8) is famous for the 2018 Virginia upset, but this is a completely different roster, and Howard (23-10) can't generate enough offense to trouble Michigan's defense. This will be over early.

Pick to advance: Michigan

🏀 Georgia vs. Saint Louis prediction

This should be one of the most entertaining first-round games in the bracket - both teams push the pace and can score in bunches. Georgia (22-10) has the edge with the No. 16 offense in the country and SEC-level athleticism. Saint Louis (28-5) shoots an absurd 59.7% eFG% and has won 28 games, but Georgia's offensive ceiling and defensive length from the SEC should be the difference in a game that could finish in the mid-70s.

Pick to advance: Georgia

🏀 Texas Tech vs. Akron prediction

This is the 12-over-5 upset I'm most confident about picking this year. Texas Tech (22-10) owns the No. 12 offense on paper but hasn't been the same without star JT Toppin. Meanwhile, Akron (29-5) is one of the best shooting teams in the field at 58.5% eFG% with star Tavari Johnson (20.2 PPG) leading the way. The Zips have won 29 games and are MAC champions for the third straight year. Texas Tech's defense is good but not elite, and Akron's shooting volume can overwhelm good defenses on a hot night.

Pick to advance: Akron

🏀 Alabama vs. Hofstra prediction

Alabama (23-9) has a top-three offense and plays the fastest tempo in the tournament (73.2), which is the typical Nate Oats strategy to win in March. His teams always shoot a ton of threes and overwhelm opponents with pace. Hofstra (24-10) won the CAA behind Cruz Davis (20.5 PPG) and has a respectable defense, but the Pride aren't equipped to handle Alabama's volume. The Crimson Tide's defense is a long-term concern for a deep run, but it shouldn't matter in this matchup.

Pick to advance: Alabama

🏀 Tennessee vs. Miami OH/SMU prediction

I'm not sold on Tennessee (22-11) to stick around much past this matchup, but with a top-15 defense and experienced coach in Rick Barnes leading the way, that should be enough against either opponent. If SMU (20-13) wins, this becomes a tougher test with the Mustangs' top-30 offense and star guard Miller (18.6 PPG, 41.9% from 3) capable of testing any defense. If Miami OH (31-1) comes through, the Vols should handle their business in a massive step up in competition for the RedHawks.

Pick to advance: Tennessee

🏀 Virginia vs. Wright State prediction

Virginia (29-5) has been one of the feel-good stories of the season: first-year coach Ryan Odom - yes, the same guy whose UMBC team beat the Cavs in 2018 - transformed the program after Tony Bennett's shocking retirement, going 29-5 with an elite defense and 3-point heavy offense that relies on the long ball for nearly half of their attempts. Wright State (23-11) won the Horizon League but doesn't have the offensive ceiling to keep up with Virginia's suffocating defense and offensive rebounding.

Pick to advance: Virginia

🏀 Kentucky vs. Santa Clara prediction

The casual observer might look at this matchup and assume a blowout, but Santa Clara (26-8) ranks 35th in KenPom - only 7 spots behind Kentucky (21-13) - while boasting a much better scoring attack. Kentucky's defense is its calling card, but with Jayden Quaintance (knee) doubtful after playing only four games all season, the Wildcats' ceiling is capped. Santa Clara's offensive upside has me buying the upset in Round 1.

Pick to advance: Santa Clara

🏀 Iowa State vs. Tennessee State prediction

Iowa State (27-7) is the exact type of team that opponents dread playing in March: the Cyclones force turnovers at a ridiculous rate (22.4%) while shooting the lights out on the other end. Milan Momcilovich (17.4 PPG) is lethal from long range, while do-it-all star Joshua Jefferson is the engine for the Big 12 regular-season champions. Tennessee State (23-9) is making its first tournament appearance since 1994 behind first-year coach Nolan Smith, but Iowa State's defense will make this a long afternoon.

Pick to advance: Iowa State

🚨 Midwest Region upset rankings

See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

💰 Midwest Region predictions & best bets

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📈 Live Midwest Region odds

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🏀 More March Madness predictions

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