🏀 Louisville vs. North Carolina Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (Feb. 23)
Two of the best teams in the ACC meet tonight, as No. 18 North Carolina hosts No. 24 Louisville in the first matchup of a top-25 doubleheader on ESPN.
As part of our college basketball predictions, my Louisville vs. North Carolina prediction projects the Cardinals to win big on the road behind the play of freshman star Mikel Brown Jr. Louisville is a 2.5-point betting favorite for tonight's 7 p.m. ET tip (ESPN) from Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.
🏀 Louisville vs. North Carolina picks & odds today: Feb. 23
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Louisville -2.5 (-115) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Under 162.5 (-110) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Mikel Brown Jr. Over 21.5 points (-115) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.65 units
💰 Louisville vs. North Carolina prediction & best bet
Louisville -2.5 (-115)
Since North Carolina upset Duke, the Tar Heels have been sporadic due to the injury to projected top-five pick Caleb Wilson. Following the upset, Wilson fractured his hand against Miami, and UNC has gone 2-2, beating Pittsburgh and Syracuse, who are a combined 9-20 in ACC play.
Louisville is UNC's toughest matchup since losing Wilson, with the Cardinals having an explosive offense that's ranked No. 13 in adjusted efficiency and No. 14 in PPG (86.8).
The guard combo of Brown and Ryan Conwell should expose a UNC defense giving up the highest 3-point percentage (39.1%) in conference play.
Score prediction: Louisville 81, North Carolina 76
🔥 Best Louisville vs. North Carolina player prop bet
Mikel Brown Jr. Over 21.5 points (-115)
The Wooden Award odds are full of freshmen, and Brown would be there too if not for a mid-season injury. But the likely lottery pick is playing as well as almost any first-year player in the country right now, averaging 30.5 PPG in his last four.
Brown's 3-point shooting has been a game-changer for Louisville, with him averaging over five made threes during his hot streak and shooting 58.3% from deep.
The former blue-chip recruit's lethal long bombs should be on full display against a UNC defense that's ranked outside of the top 35 and struggles to defend the perimeter.
🚀 Louisville vs. North Carolina same-game parlay
North Carolina hasn't played a ranked opponent since Wilson got injured. Without him, a struggling Tar Heels' defense should have major trouble stopping an explosive Louisville offense led by one of the hottest shooters in the country.
💵 Louisville vs. North Carolina SGP picks
- Louisville -2.5 (-115)
- Under 161.5 (-105)
- Mikel Brown Jr. Over 21.5 points (-115)
Best odds: +550 via BetMGM (0.2u -> 1.1u)
💡 How I'm betting Louisville vs. North Carolina
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
This is the second biggest game on the slate, so I'm all in on betting multiple units on the matchup. And while North Carolina's at home, the Tar Heels haven't seen a team as talented as Louisville since losing Wilson.
Our best March Madness betting sites are giving the Tar Heels too much respect with this spread. They've beaten two bad ACC teams without Wilson, but Louisville is a different beat ... especially with how hot Brown has been - he's been so good that I'm taking the Over on his points and for him to hit four-plus 3-pointers at plus-money.
📊 Live Louisville vs. North Carolina odds
Louisville opened as a 1.5-point betting favorite on the road, but the line has been moving swiftly in the Cardinals' direction. UNC has covered twice in its last three games without Wilson, but clearly, bettors believe it was due to advantageous matchups with bottom-feeding ACC programs. Louisville is already a 3.5-point betting favorite at some of our best sports betting sites, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards are -4.5 by tip.
📈 Louisville vs. North Carolina betting trends
| Louisville | Statistic | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 20-7 | W-L record | 21-6 |
| 13-14 | ATS record | 15-12 |
| 11-16 | O/U record | 12-15 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
📺 How to watch Louisville vs. North Carolina
- Date: Monday, Feb. 23
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Dean E. Smith Center (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
- TV: ESPN
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