🏀 Final Four Predictions 2026: March Madness Odds & Expert Picks for Saturday
What March Madness has lacked in upsets, it's more than made up for with buzzer-beaters and elite matchups in the Final Four with Illinois vs. UConn and Michigan vs. Arizona tipping off Saturday in the NCAA Tournament semifinals.
Our Final Four predictions expect the favorites to take care of business this weekend at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. We'll be updating this page all week with our college basketball experts' game predictions, player prop picks, and futures bets ahead of Saturday's Final Four matchups.
🏀 March Madness Final Four predictions & expert picks
Latest odds via BetMGM ahead of Saturday's tournament semifinals.
| 🆚 Matchup | 💰 Favorite | ✅ Our pick | 🧠 Why we bet it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois vs. UConn (6:09 p.m. ET) | Illinois -1.5 (-115) | Illinois | Illinois' length should create problems for UConn's offense |
| Michigan vs. Arizona (8:49 p.m. ET) | Michigan -1.5 (-110) | Michigan | Michigan's shooting efficiency and 3-point volume will be the difference |
| National championship (Monday, April 6) | TBD | Michigan | The Wolverines are the most complete team in college basketball |
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📊 Illinois vs. UConn odds & prediction
- Tipoff: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live/HBO Max
Illinois (28-8) opened as a 2.5-point favorite behind the No. 1 offense in the country, but UConn (32-5) is hard to count out under head coach Dan Hurley, who is 10-0 in the second weekend or later in the NCAA Tournament. Our lead college basketball expert Rob Paul is backing the favorites in his Illinois vs. UConn prediction:
🏆️ Who will win Illinois vs. UConn?
"UConn takes on an Illinois team that’s looked better than Duke. The Fighting Illini are No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency and No. 11 in defensive efficiency since the start of the NCAA Tournament. Not only does Illinois rank in the top 10 in offensive rebound rate (39.5%) and turnover rate (13.2%), but Brad Underwood’s team is the tallest in the country. That length should create problems for UConn’s offense."
➡️ See Paul's full analysis in his Illinois vs. UConn prediction.
📊 Michigan vs. Arizona odds & prediction
- Tipoff: 8:49 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live/HBO Max
The final two remaining No. 1 seeds meet in the most anticipated matchup of this entire tournament, and the betting odds have bounced around accordingly with Arizona and Michigan both favored at different points this week. Paul is taking the hotter shooting team in his Michigan vs. Arizona prediction:
🏆️ Who will win Michigan vs. Arizona?
“These are the two best teams in the country, led by elite defenses. But I think the difference will be Michigan’s shooting efficiency and willingness to shoot threes. The Wolverines are No. 6 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage (58.8%), and have an average 3-point rate (41.7%).”
➡️ See Paul's full analysis in his Michigan vs. Arizona prediction.
🏆 Who will win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
See the latest March Madness odds from the best sportsbooks.
Michigan and Arizona are the clear co-favorites to win the national championship, though the order changes by the book. They'll face each other on Saturday night with the winner likely to open around -220 to -240 to win the national championship.
Expect the winner between Illinois and UConn to open around +200 to +220 to win the national title as the underdog against the winner of the No. 1 seed showdown. I went further into every team's March Madness win probability based on the latest percentages at prediction markets ahead of the Final Four.
🏅 Who will win Final Four Most Outstanding Player?
Latest odds via DraftKings entering tournament semifinals.
| Player | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Michigan | +200 | 33.3% |
| Brayden Burries | Arizona | +370 | 21.3% |
| Jaden Bradley | Arizona | +550 | 15.4% |
| Keaton Wagler | Illinois | +700 | 12.5% |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | UConn | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Koa Peat | Arizona | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Alex Karaban | UConn | +1500 | 6.3% |
| David Mirkovic | Illinois | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Braylon Mullins | UConn | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Aday Mara | Michigan | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | Michigan | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Silas Demary Jr. | UConn | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Kylan Boswell | Illinois | +3500 | 2.8% |
| Andrej Stojakovic | Illinois | +4500 | 2.2% |
| Solo Ball | UConn | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Tomislav Ivisic | Illinois | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Motiejus Krivas | Arizona | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Elliot Cadeau | Michigan | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Ivan Kharchenkov | Arizona | +9000 | 1.1% |
| Trey McKenney | Michigan | +10000 | 1.0% |
Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg is the clear favorite to win Final Four Most Outstanding Player honors amid a historic run for the Wolverines - his March Madness MVP odds almost perfectly mirror his team's odds to win it all.
Arizona has three players priced in the top six on the oddsboard, more than any other team, while Illinois and UConn have five players combined before Michigan's next-closest contender (Aday Mara). I went further into the March Madness MVP win probability for every key player on all four teams.
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