🏀 Final Four Power Rankings 2026: Prediction Market & Advanced Stats Breakdown

After shaving the field down from 68 teams, just a quartet of programs remain alive in March Madness, and our Final Four power rankings break down each of the teams hoping to cut down the nets in Indianapolis and win an NCAA Tournament title.

Ahead of the final weekend in men's college basketball, Arizona has the highest win probability according to prediction apps; however, the advanced stats give a slight edge to the other No. 1 seed, Michigan.

Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

🏆 March Madness prediction market: Who has the highest win probability?

Men's college basketball championship prediction market odds via Kalshi update in real time.

📊 Final Four power rankings & advanced stats

No. 1 Michigan

• Record: 35-3
• Coach: Dusty May (career record: 188-82)
• KenPom ranking: No. 1 (+39.02)
• Adjusted offensive efficiency: No. 5 (128.2)
• Adjusted defensive efficiency: No. 1 (89.2)
• Net rating in March: No. 6 (offense: No. 19 | defense No. 18)
• NCAA Tournament point differential: +90
• Star player: Yaxel Lendeborg (15.2 PPG, 7 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.2 SPG)

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, Michigan has been flexing its ability to adapt to its opponents and beat them at their own game. The Wolverines destroyed a fast-paced, 3-point-heavy Alabama by shooting 48% from behind the arc, and then they beat a bruising Tennessee by bullying them down low and getting to the free-throw line.

Dusty May's team has everything you could want. It's led by a suffocating defense that allows the lowest effective field-goal percentage (44.9%) in the country. It's got plenty of length with its front court of Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr.

It's also the most efficient shooting team in the Final Four - No. 6 in effective field-goal percentage (58.8%). And it has the best bench of any of the Final Four teams (No. 105 in bench rating, 99 spots higher than the next highest in the Final Four).

Michigan has plenty of big game experience, too. The Wolverines beat five top-10 teams in Big Ten play (the best conference in college basketball this year), including beating fellow Final Four team Illinois, 84-70, on the road in late February. 

The Wolverines are the most complete team in college basketball.

No. 2 Arizona

• Record: 36-2
• Coach: Tommy Lloyd (career record: 148-35)
• KenPom ranking: No. 2 (+38.76)
• Adjusted offensive efficiency: No. 4 (128.6)
• Adjusted defensive efficiency: No. 2 (89.8)
• Net rating in March: No. 1 (offense: No. 8 | defense No. 6)
• NCAA Tournament point differential: +82
• Star player: Brayden Burries (16.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 40.2% 3P%)

There was a point in time where Arizona looked like it might approach an undefeated regular season, but after a 23-0 start, the Wildcats lost two in a row. But Tommy Lloyd's team hasn't lost a game since, riding a 13-game winning streak into the Final Four.

On paper, Arizona is the most complete team in the country, which is likely why it has the highest win probability at Kalshi. Aside from their two-game hiccup in February, the Wildcats have looked inpenetrable. 

They have arguably the strongest starting five in the Final Four, with Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley and projected lottery pick Brayden Burries in the backcourt, and a front court that consists of project lottery pick and West Region MVP Koa Peat, 7-foot-2 rim protector Motiejus Krivas, and one of most underrated freshman in the country, Ivan Kharchenkov. 

That five has Arizona beating teams up on both ends. The Wildcats rank top 10 in offensive rebound rate (38.4%), free throw rate (44.3%), and effective field-goal percentage allowed (45%).

Most years, Arizona would be the overwhelming favorite to win it all.

No. 3 Illinois

• Record: 28-8
• Coach: Brad Underwood (career record: 302-136)
• KenPom ranking: No. 4 (+34.41)
• Adjusted offensive efficiency: No. 1 (131.8)
• Adjusted defensive efficiency: No. 20 (97.4)
• Net rating in March: No. 4 (offense: No. 11 | defense No. 27)
• NCAA Tournament point differential: +78
• Star player: Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG, 5 RPG, 4.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 40.7% 3P%)

Illinois has found its groove after an uneven end to the regular season that continued in the Big Ten Tournament. The Fighting Illini have been the hottest team in the NCAA Tournament, thanks in large part to their defense.

Since the start of March Madness, Illinois is No. 11 in defensive efficiency (93.5) and No. 14 in effective field-goal percentage allowed (45.5%). Brad Underwood's team's length is finally creating consistent problems for opponents (Illinois is the tallest team in the country, averaging 6-foot-6.7).

And while the Fighting Illini's defense has been an X-factor on their run to the Final Four, it's the offense that makes them so dangerous. Illinois has the most efficient offense in the country, doesn't turn the ball over (No. 10 in turnover rate at 13.2%), and owns the glass on offense (No. 3 in offensive rebound rate at 39.5%).

Illinois also has the best NBA prospect in the Final Four (Keaton Wagler) and surrounds him with capable scorers. Underwood has five different players averaging double-digit points, three more averaging over five per game, and six players overall hitting at least 1.2 threes per game.

When Illinois is hitting its threes, it might be the most dangerous team in the Final Four.

No. 4 UConn

• Record: 33-5
• Coach: Dan Hurley (career record: 349-179)
• KenPom ranking: No. 9 (+29.11)
• Adjusted offensive efficiency: No. 28 (122.8)
• Adjusted defensive efficiency: No. 9 (93.7)
• Net rating in March: No. 20 (offense: No. 49 | defense No. 22)
• NCAA Tournament point differential: +32
• Star player: Tarris Reed (14.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.1 BPG, 0.9 SPG)

This team isn't supposed to be in the Final Four, but that's kind of been the theme with UConn for over a decade now. Every time the Huskies are overlooked, they manage to shock everyone and go on a run.

Since 2011, only four non-No. 1 seeds have won the NCAA Tournament, three of those were UConn. Could Dan Hurley pull it off again and win his third title in four years? The advanced stats and prediction markets don't believe ... but UConn's here after having just a 1.7% chance of beating Duke at the end of the game.

Of the Final Four teams, none is as experienced and as used to playing together as UConn, which is likely why the Huskies never seem to panic or quit. UConn is No. 21 nationally in experience and No. 18 in continuity; none of the other three teams are in the top 45 in either metric. 

Also going for Hurley's team is Tarris Reed. The big man has been the best player through the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament. He's averaging 21.8 PPG, 13.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 2.3 BPG in March Madness, with his size and power constantly creating problems.

But if UConn is going to surprise everyone and win two more games, it's going to need to be far better on the offensive end.

🏆 Final analysis: Prediction markets vs. Advanced stats

While the prediction markets give a slight edge to Arizona taking home the title (34%), the advanced metrics give the nod to Michigan. KenPom projects the Wolverines to beat the Wildcats, 79-78, on Saturday (it also has Illinois beating UConn, 74-70).

With that said, Kalshi actually has significantly more contract volume for Michigan at nearly every price point than it does for Arizona. That suggests sharper trader conviction behind the Wolverines than the Wildcats, despite Arizona being one point higher in terms of win probability.

So even if Arizona has the higher win probability, based on sheer volume, the market likes Michigan to win the NCAA Tournament, and so do I ... the Wolverines' combo of depth, size, and efficiency is something the Wildcats have not seen this season.

And I don't believe either Illinois or UConn can compete with Dusty May's team in the national championship.

✅ Championship pick: Michigan (33%)
✅ MVP pick: Yaxel Lendeborg (27%)

📅 March Madness key dates

• Selection Sunday: March 15
• First Four: March 17-18 (Dayton, Ohio)
• First round: March 19-20
• Second round: March 21-22
• Sweet 16: March 26-27
• Elite Eight: March 28-29
• Final Four: Saturday, April 4
• National championship game: Monday, April 6