🏀 Final Four Odds 2026: Best Bets to Reach Indianapolis After Second Round
There are just 16 teams still alive in the NCAA Tournament, with the Sweet 16 tipping off on Thursday, and the three remaining No. 1 seeds are minus-money by the Final Four odds to reach Indianapolis.
But with Florida's upset loss to Iowa, there's an opportunity in the South region, and my Final Four best bet is still backing the team I initially took in my March Madness predictions to be standing come April.
📊 Final Four odds 2026
Final Four odds via FanDuel.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | -175 | 63.6% |
| Arizona | -145 | 59.2% |
| Duke | -120 | 54.5% |
| Houston | +110 | 47.62% |
| Illinois | +220 | 31.3% |
| Purdue | +230 | 30.3% |
| Iowa State | +300 | 25.0% |
| UConn | +420 | 19.2% |
| Michigan State | +450 | 18.2% |
| Nebraska | +500 | 16.7% |
| St. John's | +500 | 16.7% |
| Arkansas | +700 | 12.5% |
| Iowa | +700 | 12.5% |
| Tennessee | +750 | 11.8% |
| Alabama | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Texas | +1800 | 5.3% |
🔮 Final Four predictions
Check out the latest March Madness odds.
| Region | Team | KenPom ranking (net rating) | Final Four odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| East | Duke | No. 3 (+37.82) | -120 |
| West | Arizona | No. 2 (+37.83) | -145 |
| South | Houston | No. 1 (+37.83) | +110 |
| Midwest | Michigan | No. 4 (+34.44) | -175 |
4️⃣ Final Four best bet
Houston (+110)
Any of Michigan (-175), Arizona (-145), and Duke (-120) are a reasonable bet to make the Final Four. But with all three at minus-money and still needing to beat multiple teams ranked top 17 in net rating, there's a better value on the board.
Despite Florida being knocked off by Iowa, Houston remains plus-money to reach the Final Four and trails only the big three teams in net rating. The Cougars are one of four teams still alive that rank in the top 10 in both adjusted offensive (125.3) and defensive efficiency (90.9).
Houston doesn't turn the ball over on offense - No. 5 in turnover rate (12.9%) - and has a projected top 10 pick leading its attack in Kingston Flemings. Defensively, the Cougs remain a steel trap, ranking top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed (46%) and forced turnover rate (20.7%).
Kelvin Sampson is also right there with Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo as the best coaches left in the NCAA Tournament. He's taken Houston to two Final Fours in the past five seasons and is the top defensive coach in the country.
Although my March Madness odds sleeper to win it all is Illinois (because I think the Fighting Illini have a better shot at taking down Duke and Michigan/Arizona than Houston), the Cougars are built perfectly to stop Brad Underwood's team Thursday night.
💤 Final Four sleeper
Arkansas (+700)
Finding a Final Four sleeper is tough when Michigan, Duke, and Arizona have been juggernauts all season. But if anyone can slay a monster, it's Darius Acuff Jr.
Per Opta, the freshman is the only player to have 60-plus points, 10-plus assists, and five or fewer turnovers over any two-game span in the NCAA Tournament (since assists became official in 1983-84). And Acuff's been on an all-time heater since before March Madness tipped off.
Over his last 16 games, the SEC Player of the Year is averaging 27.8 PPG and 6.9 APG, and he's No. 3 nationally in offensive rating (126.3). Acuff is putting together a Kemba Walker-like run right now, and he has enough around him to make Arizona sweat on Thursday.
The Razorbacks have one of the best offenses in the country, sitting No. 5 in adjusted efficiency (127.7), No. 15 in effective field-goal percentage (56.5%), No. 17 in tempo (71.3), and No. 1 in turnover rate (12.2%).
If John Calipari's team can turn its matchup with the Wildcats into a track meet, it's capable of winning a shootout and taking down Goliath.
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