🔮 2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: SBR Expert NCAA Tournament Picks

Bracket deadlines are closing in, so I've collected Sportsbook Review's March Madness expert bracket picks and predicitons to help you beat the clock, with minimal stress.

The first round of March Madness begins Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET, when TCU takes on Ohio State in the opening game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. That's typically the deadline for all bracket entries, but be sure to check with your pool-runner.

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🔮 SBR Expert championship picks at a glance

Here are our experts' March Madness predictions to help you fill out your own printable March Madness bracket; odds from our best March Madness betting sites:

FIve of our 10 experts - Rob Paul, Phil Wood, Isaiah Sirois, C Jackson Cowart, and Claude - are aligned on Duke, making the Blue Devils the consensus pick. I'm the clear contrarian with Gonzaga at +6000.

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Rob Paul - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Duke (+400 via FanDuel
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Houston (South), Arizona (West), Michigan (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Troy (13) over Nebraska (4)
💰 Betting angle: Troy is just +4500 to reach the Sweet 16

This season has been defined by the dominance of three programs: Duke, Arizona, and Michigan. And while the Blue Devils are dealing with injuries, they overcame them on the way to Jon Scheyer's third ACC Tournament championship in four years.

I expect Duke's momentum to continue into the NCAA Tournament, with Cameron Boozer leading the charge. The freshman is the best player in the country, and the key reason Duke is the only team ranked in the top four nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

And while I have a blue blood taking home the title, I don't think this year's tournament will be nearly as chalky as last year's. I have two double-digit seeds making Sweet 16 runs (Troy and Akron), with the Trojans being led by a scary front-court duo and the Zips sitting top five in offensive rating behind the play of Tavari Johnson. 

And don't sleep on South Florida either, the Bulls are the best upset bet of Round 1 with their matchup against Louisville.

- Rob Paul

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Dustin Saracini - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Houston (+1300 via DraftKings)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Houston (South), Purdue (West), Michigan (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Troy (13) over Nebraska (4)
💰 Betting angle: Kentucky (+450 via FanDuel) is the biggest risk to reach the Sweet 16

The revenge narrative is alive and well for my boys in Houston. Not only will they have home-court advantage when they make the Sweet 16, but it's just simply going to be tough to score on the length of this Cougars' team.

Houston is one of only three teams (along with Duke and Michigan) ranked in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Historically, almost every national champion since 2002 has fit this top 10/top 10 criteria. They'll dominate the boards on their way to a championship this year, too - book it.

- Dustin Saracini

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LJ Blut - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Purdue (+3500 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: St. John's (East), Houston (South), Purdue (West), Iowa State (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: No. 11 South Florida topples Louisville and then Michigan State
💰 Betting angle: St. John's to reach the Final Four is +1200 at DraftKings

This is the most wide-open March Madness tournament we have had in years. There are paths for nearly every team to make a run this year, as nobody looks like the clear cream of the crop in 2026.

Injuries have also impacted this tournament heavily, and we have made our selections based on the health and current form of each team. Purdue has won the gauntlet of the Big Ten and has the coach and experience to make a run to the top this year. St. John’s was disrespected as the Big East conference champion and given the five seed. I anticipate a big run from them as well.

Duke is my most overrated team in the country, and I see them falling rather early this year. This is the best time of the year, so enjoy every second of March Madness!

- LJ Blut

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Mike Spector - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Arizona (+400 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Michigan State (East), Florida (South), Arizona (West), Iowa State (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Tennessee (6) losing to the winner of Miami (OH) vs. SMU (11)
💰 Betting angle: St. John's (+500 via FanDuel) gets to the Elite 9 by toppling No. 1 overall seed, Duke

Though Duke is the biggest favorite (-135) to reach the Final Four, it has an absolute nightmare opponent looming in the Sweet 16 in St. John's, who never trailed once in the Big East Tournament.

If the Blue Devils could get by Rick Pitino' squad, they may win it all. Matchups also dictated my other No. 1 seed to not make the Final Four, as Iowa State's pesky defensive backcourt and ability to stretch the floor should be difficult for Michigan's size to handle. In the end, I love the depth and size that both Arizona and Florida have, but give the edge to the Wildcats in this matchup because of their backcourt.

I simply cannot trust Xavian Lee to bring the Gators home a second consecutive national title. I also believe Arizona's path to the Final Four is the easiest of all No. 1 seeds, which is why it's my most confident national champion.

- Mike Spector

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Phil Wood - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Duke (+400 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Illinois (South), Arizona (West), Iowa State (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: High Point beats Wisconsin in the common 12 vs. 5 first-round upset
💰 Betting angle: Vanderbilt reaches the Elite 8 at +390 odds (FanDuel)

Duke vs. Arizona seems destined to happen, and I like the Blue Devils to get healthy as the tournament progresses, ultimately cutting down the nets.

While this may not seem all that exciting, especially after all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four last year, I expect Michigan and Florida to see much earlier exits.Vanderbilt is a very sneaky No. 5 seed, and I wouldn't be surprised if they make the Final Four. Ultimately, I'll go with Illinois to take care of business against them in the Elite Eight, but I had both teams circled before the brackets came out. The same goes with Alabama and Iowa State in the Midwest.

While I'll back Iowa State to get to the Final Four, I expect Alabama to take down Michigan. While I don't have any double-digit seeds making it past the first weekend, I like VCU, High Point, Akron, and the winner of Miami-Ohio and SMU to advance to the Round of 32.

- Phil Wood

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Shane Thurston - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Michigan (+375 via BetMGM)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Houston (South), Purdue (West), Michigan (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Hofstra (13) over Alabama (4)
💰 Betting angle: Northern Iowa is +2200 to reach the Sweet 16

I’m once again asking for the madness to come back. 

After there were only three upsets among the 11-16 seeds last year, it’s tempting to put together a chalky bracket. While there is an argument that NIL has distanced the gap between the elite programs and mid-majors, I’m comfortable betting against that theory after just one tournament.

As a result, there is some extra value in picking a handful of Round 1 upsets this year. I’m rolling with two No. 11 seeds, one No. 12 seed, and a No. 13 seed. At least one of them should advance to the Sweet 16 based on historical trends, and South Florida would be my bet to do so.

Following the first weekend, I went more chalky when the points matter more. Of the top teams, Michigan appears to offer the biggest edge as a national champion pick, considering only 14.3% of ESPN brackets have backed the Wolverines, who are +380 (20.8%) to win it all at FanDuel.

People might be overreacting to the injury of reserve guard LJ Cason. In Dusty May we trust. Go Wolverines.

- Shane Thurston

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Isaiah Sirois - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Duke (+400 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Illinois (South), Purdue (West), Michigan (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Play-in NC State (11) takes down BYU (6)
💰 Betting angle: NC State to reach the Sweet 16 is +1000 to reach the Sweet 16

My bracket isn't that interesting - the East, West, and Midwest have truly dominant teams at the top. The South is much more wide open, so you'll find the majority of my underdog and contrarian picks there.

I'm skeptical of Florida, especially against a slow-paced Iowa team coached by Ben McCollum, who just pulled off a first-round upset last year, and Houston's inefficient shooting and slow pace make them a prime early upset candidate.Generally, I recommend taking a favorite-heavy approach to the first few rounds because NIL has clearly limited Cinderella runs.

Some intriguing candidates include Northern Iowa (who draws an offensively shaky St. John's team in the opener), Saint Mary's (who is underseeded following an early exit in the WAC tournament), and SMU (who should roll over a questionable Miami-OH team and could benefit from a second-round matchup versus a slow Virginia team).

The tournament should ultimately come down to which of Duke or Michigan makes the final, and, if both do, Duke.

- Isaiah Sirois

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Esten McLaren - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Gonzaga (+6000 via Caesars)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Kansas (East), Vanderbilt (South), Gonzaga (West), Tennessee (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Hofstra (13) over Alabama (4)
💰 Betting angle: Gonzaga is a +6000 March Madness long shot, with a winning $10 bet returning a profit of $600

In case you weren't aware, it's extremely difficult to select a perfect bracket. The odds are commonly estimated to be around 1 in 120 billion, and it has (expectedly) never happened. So, why would I play it safe?

My bracket may look randomly-generated, but I made the selections myself. Consider this my entry to the Kalshi Billion Dollar Bracket and our March Madness bracket challenges. I'm not playing for a tie.

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C Jackson Cowart - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Duke (+400 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Houston (South), Arizona (West), Iowa State (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Akron (12) over Texas Tech (5)
💰 Betting angle: Iowa State is +460 to reach the Final Four ($10 to win $46)

Much like last season, this entire campaign has felt dominated by a small handful of teams with a legitimate chance to win the mational championship and ... all the rest. So while I'd be shocked if we see a team beyond the top two seed lines cut down the nets, we could see some of the favorites in that second and third tier stumble early.

As I broke down in my Calcutta auction picks and targets, I'm fading Florida in the South Region in favor of the winner of the Vanderbilt and Nebraska matchup in the second round - I have the Commodores taking that one and then bouncing the defending champions in the tournament for the second time this month.

If you're looking for a contrarian title pick, Iowa State is dealing at longer than 20/1 odds with virtually zero buzz to win it all. If you're entering a large pool and need to lean into game theory, take a chance on the Cyclones - if it's a smaller pool, stick with Duke or Arizona as the safest picks in the bracket.

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AI (Claude) - 2026 March Madness bracket

🏆 Championship pick: Duke (+400 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Final Four picks: Duke (East), Houston (South), Arizona (West), Michigan (Midwest)
🔥 Bold upset call: Akron (12) over Texas Tech (5)
💰 Betting angle: 8 first-round March Madness upset predictions show value in sprinkling on a handful of early underdogs

Claude selected each game winner in our March Madness AI bracket predictions by weighing KenPom and Bart Torvik efficiency data against real-time factors like injuries, recent form, and venue advantages. Betting lines served as a market-based sanity check, while historical upset rates by seed matchup ensured the bracket reflected realistic chaos - not just a chalk-heavy favorites sweep.

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🤝 Where our experts agree

Despite some notable disagreements - particularly my Gonzaga long shot and LJ Blut's skepticism of Duke - there is meaningful consensus across SBR's expert panel.

Duke is the most popular championship pick, backed by five of 10 experts, including Claude. Houston is the most consensus Final Four team, appearing in six of 10 brackets, while Michigan and Arizona both appear in the semifinal in five brackets.

Akron over Texas Tech is the most shared upset call, with six of our 10 experts (including Claude) picking the 12th-seeded Zips to beat the Red Raiders in the first round.

🗳️ Most picked Final Four teams

Here's how often each team appears across all 10 expert brackets, including Claude:

Duke is the most consensus Final Four team on the panel, appearing in seven of 10 brackets - and the most popular championship pick, backed by five experts, including Claude. Houston slots just behind with six appearances in the Final Four across 10 brackets, while Michigan and Arizona appear in half of our experts' semifinals.

My Final Four of Kansas, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, and Tennessee stands entirely alone. No other expert has any of those four teams advancing to Indianapolis.

🗺️ Region-by-region consensus

Which team does SBR's panel collectively favor to win each region?

The East is the most settled region - seven of 10 experts have Duke advancing to Indianapolis, with only LJ Blut, Mike Spector, and me going against the grain.

The West is the most divided, with four experts backing Purdue against five backing Arizona, plus my Gonzaga wildcard. The South and Midwest are tighter than the seed lines suggest, with Houston and Michigan holding comfortable consensus leads but facing credible challenges from Illinois, Vanderbilt, Iowa State, and Tennessee across the panel.

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🫗 The upset picks - Cinderella teams to watch 2026

March Madness without chaos isn't March Madness. Here are the Cinderella teams SBR's experts are backing to cause damage in 2026.

Upset picks at a glance

Here are our most-popular first-round upsets, and the best college basketball odds:

⚡ Akron - the panel's best bet

The Zips are the consensus upset pick of the entire panel. Five of our 10 experts (including Claude) are taking Akron against a Texas Tech team that lost JT Toppin to a season-ending ACL tear and dropped three straight heading into the tournament. Akron's top-55 offense is no joke - and they're 29-5.

Brenden Schaeffer covers it with his Akron vs. Texas Tech prediction.

🐂 South Florida - the hot mid-major

Louisville is shorthanded without Mikel Brown Jr., Pat Kelsey is 0-5 in NCAA Tournament games, and South Florida has won 12 straight. Izaiyah Nelson won both AAC Player and Defensive Player of the Year. Multiple experts have USF advancing past the first weekend. This could be the upset bet of the tournament.

See Shane Thurston's South Florida vs. Louisville prediction for Round 1.

🏇 Troy - the frontcourt nobody wants to face

Two experts are backing the 13-seed Trojans to shock Nebraska, and Rob Paul is riding them all the way to the Sweet 16 at +4500. Troy's frontcourt duo is the most physically imposing mid-major pairing in the bracket - and Nebraska is beatable.

Mike Spector offers his Troy vs. Nebraska prediction.

🏋️ Hofstra - Alabama's worst nightmare

Two experts have the Pride pulling off one of the bracket's most shocking upsets against a top-three offensive team in Alabama. If Hofstra's defense can slow the Crimson Tide's pace, they have the personnel to pull it off.

Phil Wood breaks it down with his Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction.

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👠 March Madness bracket picks - Cinderella watch

Not every expert is playing it safe. Here are the biggest long shots SBR's panel is backing to make a run - from Sweet 16 sleepers to outright championship shocks.

🎲 Long shots at a glance

🚀 Gonzaga - the biggest swing in the bracket

I'm not here to play it safe. While every other expert is picking from the pool of 1- and 2-seeds, I'm riding Gonzaga all the way to the national championship at +6000 - a $10 bet that returns $600 in profit. My Final Four of Kansas, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, and Tennessee doesn't include a single No. 1 seed, making it the most contrarian March Madness bracket on the panel by a wide margin. Bold? Absolutely. 

💜 Purdue - LJ Blut's dark horse champion

While most of the panel views Purdue as a dangerous Sweet 16 or Elite Eight team, LJ Blut is going all the way with the Boilermakers at +3500. Blut argues Purdue won the gauntlet of the Big Ten and has the coaching and experience to peak at the right time. At those odds, a small bet goes a long way if Matt Painter's squad catches fire in March.

⚜️ St. John's - the Final Four longshot with a case

Blut has the Big East champions making the Final Four at +1200 - the longest Final Four odds of any pick across the entire panel. Blut argues the Red Storm were disrespected with a 5-seed despite winning the Big East Tournament, and Rick Pitino's tournament pedigree gives them a legitimate path. Mike Spector also has St. John's going deep, backing them to topple No. 1 overall seed Duke in the Elite Eight at +500 odds.

🎯 Troy - the sweetest Sweet 16 long shot

Rob Paul is the only expert backing Troy to reach the Sweet 16, and at +4500 it's the longest Sweet 16 odds of any pick on the panel. The 13-seed Trojans first have to get past Nebraska, but Paul believes their frontcourt is built to keep winning once they do.

📻 Northern Iowa - Shane Thurston's sleeper

Thurston is the lone expert riding Northern Iowa to the Sweet 16 at +2200 - a team that draws a tough first-round matchup against St. John's, but one Thurston believes is capable of springing a surprise. The Panthers' defense is legitimate, and at those odds, the value is hard to ignore.

🔴 NC State - Isaiah Sirois' First Four-to-Sweet 16 pick

Sirois has the Wolfpack - who must first win a First Four play-in game - advancing all the way to the Sweet 16 at +1000. It's a multi-step long shot that requires NC State to win three straight games, but Sirois sees a path through a favorable bracket draw.

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❓ Frequently asked questions - 2026 March Madness predictions

Who are the favorites to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Michigan (+375), Duke (+400), Arizona (+400), and Florida (+750) are the March Madness favorites as the four No. 1 seeds in the Midwest, East, West, and South Regions, respectively.

Who do SBR's experts pick to win March Madness 2026?

Four of our experts, including Claude, have Duke winning it all as the March Madness No. 1 overall seed.

What is the biggest upset pick for the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Several of our March Madness experts have No. 13 Hofstra defeating No. 4 Alabama in the Round of 64. Gonzaga is the biggest long shot predicted to win the tournament at +6000 March Madness odds. Troy (+4500) and Northern Iowa (+2200) are the biggest long shots to reach the Sweet 16. St. John's (+1200) has the longest Final Four odds of our picks.

When is the 2026 NCAA Championship game?

The national championship will be played Monday, April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be broadcast by TBS.