🏀 Duke vs. UCLA Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Elite Eight (March 29)
Duke's revenge tour as a No. 3 seed will continue with a women's March Madness Elite Eight battle with No. 1 UCLA at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday in the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif., on ABC.
The Blue Devils get another chance at revenge against the Bruins, who handed them their worst loss of the year (30 points) on Nov. 27. Duke is getting more respect this time around, as UCLA is a 10.5-point favorite via the latest women's March Madness odds.
But my Duke vs. UCLA prediction likes the value of the superior squad on Sunday.
🏀 Duke vs. UCLA picks & odds: Women's March Madness Elite Eight
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA -10.5 | -105 via Caesars | 1u -> 0.95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| UCLA Over 69.5 points | -125 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.8u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.75 units
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🏆 Who will win Duke vs. UCLA?
This is where Duke's magical run must end, as I predict UCLA to advance to the Final Four with a 15-point win on Sunday. While the Blue Devils are a much different team than in November, it's also worth remembering that Lauren Betts, the Bruins' best player, didn't even play in that 30-point win in the regular-season meeting.
Score prediction: UCLA 74, Duke 59
💰 Duke vs. UCLA prediction & best bet
UCLA Over 69.5 points (-125)
I see similar value in UCLA's team total and its spread on Sunday. The Blue Devils closed as double-digit underdogs against LSU on Friday, so there's value in a similar line with the better team.
But the Bruins also won't cover the spread without scoring 70 points, which is why I'm taking advantage of bet365 being alone among the best sports betting sites while offering team totals. UCLA is seventh in the nation while averaging 85.3 points per game, scoring at least 72 points in 33 of its 34 wins this year. The Bruins have scored at least 80 points in all three NCAA Tournament matchups thus far.
UCLA posted an impressive offensive rating of 121.3 in its 30-point win over Duke without Betts in November. Imagine what it will look like with her in the lineup.
🚀 Duke vs. UCLA same-game parlay
Since bet365 is the lone shop offering team totals right now, I've created my Duke vs. UCLA parlay at that shop. These two legs are correlated, so the odds only come out to +155. But I'm content with backing the Bruins to completely control this battle.
💵 Duke vs. UCLA SGP picks
- UCLA -10.5
- UCLA Over 69.5 points
Best odds: +155 via bet365 (0.2u -> 0.31u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-38 | +0.01 units ✅ | +0% ✅ |
| Game picks (ML) | 5-3 | +2.12 units ✅ | +29.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 12-9 | -0.32 units ❌ | -1.9% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-12 | -0.49 units ❌ | -25.8% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Duke vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I've allocated two units between two wagers in Sunday's Duke vs. UCLA Elite Eight matchup. Since they are correlated, I wouldn't blame anyone for just picking their favorite option to have some rooting interest. They offer similar value, so I don't have a preference on which ticket you pick.
However, if the odds move much further, that would change my approach. I'm comfortable betting the spread at 11.5 or better, while the team total is only worth playing at 70.5 or better.
📊 Live Duke vs. UCLA odds: Women's March Madness Elite Eight
UCLA opened as a 10-point favorite, but the line quickly moved to 10.5. I wouldn't be surprised if the spread climbs a bit more, as 83% of the bets at DraftKings are backing the Bruins.
The total is trading at 129.5, though it's more unclear which direction it might move.
📺 How to watch Duke vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness Elite Eight
- Date: Sunday, March 29
- Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Golden 1 Center (Sacramento, Calif.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN+
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