🏀 Duke vs. LSU Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Sweet 16 (March 27)
Friday's Women's March Madness Sweet 16 matchup is sort of a litmus test for No. 3 seed Duke. How much have the Blue Devils changed since making their starting lineup change early in the year? A rematch with No. 2 seed LSU provides a good answer.
The Tigers overcame a slow start in their 93-77 win during the regular-season meeting with the Blue Devils on Dec. 4. Now, they are 8.5-point favorites in the postseason rematch, and my Duke vs. LSU prediction is banking on a similar outcome.
Let's dive into the latest women's March Madness odds ahead of tipoff at 10 p.m. ET in Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif., on ESPN.
🏀 Duke vs. LSU picks & odds: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU -8.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| LSU 1Q ML & Full-Game ML | -145 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.69u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.6 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Duke vs. LSU?
I'm predicting LSU to win by 12 in its Sweet 16 matchup with Duke on Friday. The Tigers are the more experienced team, having been to the Elite Eight in each of the past two seasons. That experience will prove to be the difference on the big stage.
Score prediction: LSU 80, Duke 68
💰 Duke vs. LSU prediction & best bet
LSU -8.5 (-110)
Considering I like LSU to win by double-digits, I love the idea of laying -8.5 in this spot. This line is as high as -9 at most shops, but BetMGM and DraftKings are offering the best value for the Tigers.
The fact that the Tigers still won by 16 in the regular-season meeting speaks to their edge in this matchup. They were down 14-1 while playing on the road before quickly grabbing a 51-43 advantage at the break. Duke made a lineup switch following that defeat and went on to win 21 of its 23 games heading into Friday's rematch. But the Blue Devils have also benefitted from strong clutch numbers against inferior competition.
LSU is one of the best teams this season, and will flex its muscles in the rematch.
🔥 Best Duke vs. LSU game prop bet
LSU to win first quarter and full game (-145)
As of this writing, DraftKings is the only shop offering any player prop markets. That book only provides alternate points markets, though, so I'd rather not force it.
Instead, I see value in LSU getting off to a fast start. The Tigers are 2.5-point favorites in the opening period, which would be a three-star play if you just want to go that route. However, I prefer FanDuel's double result market for LSU to win the first quarter and full game.
Not only do I expect the Tigers to be motivated to avoid another first-quarter deficit, but they've fared well in the opening period outside of that contest. For the season, LSU has a +313 point differential in the first quarter.
🚀 Duke vs. LSU same-game parlay
It's not possible to parlay LSU's full-game spread and its first-quarter spread at BetMGM, so I had to get creative with my Duke vs. LSU SGP. I've opted to play the Tigers' team total at DraftKings instead, as they are unlikely to win by double digits without scoring 80 points.
💵 Duke vs. LSU SGP picks
- LSU -8.5
- LSU Over 77.5 points
Best odds: +158 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 0.32u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-31 | +1.39 units ✅ | +3.9% ✅ |
| Game picks | 13-12 | +0.61 units ✅ | +4.9%✅ |
| Player props | 9-6 | -0.26 units ❌ | -2.4% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-10 | -0.51 units ❌ | -31.9% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Duke vs. LSU: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I've allocated two units in LSU dominating the rematch with Duke, earning a third straight Elite Eight berth. I'm honestly surprised that the Tigers are only 8.5-point favorites after having no problem covering this number in the first meeting, despite a slow start and playing on the road.
Given the experience and talent of the Tigers' roster, it's easy to see a world where they control this game from start to finish.
📊 Live Duke vs. LSU odds: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
As of Thursday afternoon, LSU is favored by 8.5 points and the total is 146.5. I'd expect the spread to move in favor of the Tigers, as 86% of bets are on them at DraftKings. The total could increase a touch, but likely won't feature as much movement.
📺 How to watch Duke vs. LSU: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
- Date: Friday, March 27
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Golden 1 Center (Sacramento, Calif.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN App
Related Articles
