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College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

Three ranked teams from last week are in action on a small 14-game slate to kick off the week. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Monday based on the top NCAAB odds.

Two ranked teams face off in a key Big 12 battle as Texas (19-4, 8-2) looks to stay atop the league standings when visiting Kansas (18-5, 6-4).

Here are our college basketball best bets for Monday (odds via Caesars, BetMGM, PointsBet, FanDuel, and DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.

Monday’s college basketball schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Texas vs. Kansas (-4)
  • Duke vs. Miami (-4)
  • Weber State (-1) vs. Northern Colorado

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

College basketball best bets for Monday

  • Spread: UMass Lowell -16 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Hartford ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Miami (-165 via FanDuel) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Texas-Kansas Over 146.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Weber State (-115 via PointsBet) vs. Northern Colorado ⭐⭐⭐

College basketball top picks

Spread: UMass Lowell -16 vs. Hartford (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Hartford has lost 12 of 13 games, with seven coming by 13-plus points. The Hawks are one of nine teams that rank 354th or worse in both KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.

Teams have been able to carve up Hartford’s “swiss cheese” defense early in the shot clock, as the Hawks spend the fifth-fewest time on average on defense per possession (16.3 seconds). UMass Lowell should cruise to offensive success, especially with its edge on the offensive backboards (13th in offensive rebounding vs. Hartford’s 336th defensive-rebounding rate).

The favorite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these teams, and we are heading to Caesars for this wager, as it is one of the lone sportsbooks at -16 as opposed to -16.5.

Moneyline: Miami ML vs. Duke (-165) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

According to the ESPN broadcast, Duke point guard Jeremy Roach prepped his teammates ahead of Saturday’s game against UNC by telling them how physically and mentally draining a rivalry it is. Thus, Duke playing a ranked Miami team on the road two days after its high-profile showdown with the Tar Heels is not what head coach Jon Scheyer would’ve drawn up.

The Hurricanes nearly upset Duke at Cameron Indoor (lost 68-66) on Jan. 21, despite getting just seven points from shooting guard Isaiah Wong and four Blue Devils scoring in double figures. One of those players was Dariq Whitehead, who scored 10 points and whose defense was on Miami’s guards, played an integral part in the victory. Whitehead has missed the last three games (all wins), but Hurricanes head coach Jim Larranaga will take advantage of his absence and identify mismatches.

We still find value with this line at DraftKings, though all sportsbooks have risen considerably off of the opening number of -150.

Total: Texas vs. Kansas Over 146.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

A lot of the wrong kind of history was made in Kansas’s 68-53 loss to Iowa State on Saturday. Not only was it the first time in league play that the Jayhawks lost four times in a five-game span under Bill Self, but their 53-point output was also its lowest in a Big 12 game in the Hall of Fame coach’s era.

The Jayhawks committed 20 turnovers (nine of which were Cyclone steals), and conventional wisdom would say Kansas will struggle to score points against a Longhorns team that forces turnovers at a top-27 rate (22.6%). However, Texas’s 82 points allowed to Tennessee three games ago looks worse now that the Volunteers have scored 100 points in two games since then.

This is a three-star play, as we expect the Longhorns to take advantage of the Jayhawks’ lack of rim protection and use their 16th-highest 2-point shooting rate (56%) as an avenue for scoring points. 

The Over has cashed in 12 of Kansas’s 18 games as a favorite, and we expect another high-scoring game on a short turnaround tonight.

Moneyline: Weber State ML vs. Northern Colorado (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

The biggest reason for us backing a Weber State upset is forward Dillon Jones, the Big Sky’s eighth-leading scorer (15.5 points). Jones is a matchup nightmare who scored in double figures in 16 of the previous 17 games, with a season-high 26 points in the first meeting against Northern Colorado, an 81-72 win. In that game, he tied a season-high 15 free-throw attempts, and the Bears had no answer for his versatility.

Though the final margin of victory was nine points, the Wildcats at one point had a 22-point lead and cruised to victory despite allowing 41.7% from 3-point range (10-for-24).

Northern Colorado is a Big Sky-worst 8-14 ATS, and we expect that to result in a road win for Weber State.

College basketball best bets made 2/6/2023 at 6:13 a.m. ET.

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