🏀 College Basketball Predictions Today: Kentucky’s 1st-Half Woes to Continue

Saturday’s college basketball slate is already off to an exhilarating start, and it's only getting better from here. Today marks just the fifth time in AP poll history that two top-4 matchups are played on the same day, and our college basketball predictions today deliver you a pick from one of those showdowns. The huge matchups between No. 4 Arizona and No. 2 Houston as well as No. 1 Michigan and No. 3 Duke involve just four of the 20 AP top 25 teams in action.

My picks are centered around a plus-money player prop involving point guard Elliot Cadeau, who has played five career games against Duke. I also back Auburn’s first half spread as my best college basketball bet today.

🏀 College basketball predictions today: Best player props & ATS picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.75 units

💰 Best college basketball bet today

Kentucky vs. Auburn prediction: Auburn -1.5 first half spread (-110) 

Kentucky’s trend of slow starts and poor first halves continued in its last loss to Georgia, as it could not overcome a five-point halftime deficit (which was as big as eight points).

Entering the game, the Wildcats averaged just 33.9 points with a 46% 3-point shooting and 41% overall field goal percentage in the first halves of SEC play. Those numbers balloon to 44.2 points, 50% field goal percentage, and 55% 3-point shooting percentage in the second halves.

🔥 More college basketball picks & player props today

Michigan vs. Duke prediction: Elliot Cadeau Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+102)

Elliot Cadeau was an 18.9% and 33.7% 3-point shooter in his two years at North Carolina. Now he is on pace for a career-best 40.4% shooting percentage from beyond the arc.

Cadeau has made three 3-pointers in two of the last three games, something he did just twice in total at North Carolina. But one of those games was his last game against Duke when he went 3-for-3 from beyond the arc while tying a season-best 15 points in ACC play when they met in the conference tournament.

Michigan is coming off its best 3-point shooting game in the Dusty May era. The Wolverines made 13 threes and shot 56% from beyond the arc against Purdue, which marked the only game they shot 54% or better from deep under May. Duke also allows the ninth-highest percentage of opponents’ points (38.6%) to come from 3-point range. 

Michigan is the most bet-on team to cover at BetMGM today, and if that happens, Cadeau will play a major role.

Iowa State vs. BYU prediction: Kennard Davis Over 9.5 points (-110)

In BYU’s first game without Richie Saunders (torn ACL), who was one of the team’s three players averaging 18-plus points per game, AJ Dybantsa dominated the offensive possessions. Dybantsa scored more than half of the team’s points, and had 28 of the team’s 58 field goal attempts.

Quietly, Kennard Davis scored 10 points despite playing just 26 minutes while saddled with foul trouble. Now he goes from an intimidating environment at the McKale Center in Arizona to his home floor, where he has had three of his five-highest scoring games of the season.

Miami vs. Virginia prediction: Under 146.5 (-110) 

This one is underway, with the live total sitting just over 150.5 toward the end of the first half.

Virginia is coming off its best game efficiency rating of the season against Georgia Tech, per Haslametrics. But despite the 94-point offensive breakout, the Cavaliers are still bottom 20 in Haslametrics’ offensive momentum and top 50 in defensive momentum.

Virginia center Johann Grunloh finally scored in double figures for the first time in nine games. But prior to Wednesday, the team had a minus-4.4 Net rating despite an elite defensive rating of 99.7 with him on the court over the prior five games.

Meanwhile, the Under has cashed in all four of Miami’s games against ranked opponents. This total is as low as 145, and that is the lowest I would play this number down to.

College basketball Play of the Day

Here is LJ Blut's X video Play of the Day that features Michigan -2.5.

Michigan is in a prime spot to take down Duke tonight, especially with this being a true neutral-site matchup. Without the Cameron Indoor edge, Duke loses a major advantage, and that exposes a team that has looked slightly overrated against elite competition.

Michigan’s physicality, defensive versatility, and ability to control tempo should travel well in this setting. If the Wolverines limit turnovers and win the battle on the glass, they can dictate the flow. In a pressure environment away from home, Michigan’s toughness gives them the edge and a statement opportunity.

If you want to read more about this pick, College basketball Play of the Day.

💡 How I'm betting college basketball today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

All of my four plays are one-unit wagers, and many are supported by convincing trends. For example, Kentucky has trailed at the half in three straight games, while the Under is 6-1 in Miami’s seven games as an underdog. I am also backing a player prop in the Michigan-Duke game instead of taking an ATS stance, as that is a sharp line with a 51/49 split on the handle thus far.

🚀 Best college basketball parlay picks today

In addition to the four plays above, I am adding a play on Florida’s moneyline odds as a fifth leg for this parlay. The Gators have won 11 of their last 12 SEC games, and adding them to this parlay brings the odds from +1306 to a more enticing +1433.