After a loaded slate of MTEs (multiple-team events) over the last couple weeks, we've got you covered with our daily college basketball player props and best bets for Monday based on the best college basketball odds, featuring more traditional non-conference matchups on campus.
UConn, the only ranked team playing on Monday, is preparing for a potentially historic matchup with New Hampshire on Monday. With a streak of 23 consecutive double-digit victories in non-conference games, the Huskies stand on the verge of surpassing North Carolina's 2008-09 record for the most such wins in a row.
As commanding 31.5-point favorites heading into Monday's game, the defending champions seem ready to set a new milestone.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Monday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Oakland vs. Xavier (-15)
- New Hampshire vs. UConn (-31.5)
- Northern Illinois vs. Northwestern (-11.5)
- UC Santa Barbara vs. Fresno State (-2.5)
- Utah vs. Saint Mary’s (-5)
- North Dakota State vs. San Jose State (-7.5)
Monday’s college basketball best bets
- Aidan Mahaney (Saint Mary’s) Over 13.5 points vs. Utah (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Xavier Under 83.5 team total points vs. Oakland (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Northern Illinois +12 vs. Northwestern (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Saint Peter’s-Rutgers Under 123.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Not intended for use in MA
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Monday’s college basketball player props
Aiden Mahaney (Saint Mary’s) Over 13.5 points vs. Utah (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Few players in the West Coast Conference are more critical to their offense than Aiden Mahaney to Saint Mary’s, as he has played 84.5% of the team’s minutes and attempted 26.3% of its total shots. Mahaney has not topped 11 points in any of the Gaels’ three losses but scored 15-plus points in the team’s three wins. And Mahahey does not need a ton of free throw attempts to pad his statistics, which is essential because Utah allows the fourth-fewest free throw attempts per field goal attempt in the country, as Mahaney has not attempted more than four free throws in a game this season.
Perhaps Mahaney’s five 3-pointers made against Davidson (the second time this year he has made five threes) is what the offense needs to spark an essential run through the non-conference. Entering that game, the Gaels had ranked in the 85th percentile in Synergy’s catch-and-shoot rate but was in the 18th percentile in points per possession ranking. Simply put, the Gaels struggled to make perimeter shots, but we expect Mahaney to lead the Gaels to another successful offensive day against a Utah defense that allows opponents to shoot better than 35% (268th in the country) beyond the arc.
Monday’s college basketball game picks
Xavier Under 83.5 team total points vs. Oakland (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oakland opened the season with consecutive games against Big Ten opponents (Ohio State and Illinois), and the two combined to average 71.5 points while making 11 of 41 3-point attempts (26.8%). That statistic cannot be overlooked when facing a Grizzlies defense that does an excellent job of walling off driving lanes and forces opponents to shoot 3-pointers at the 44th-highest rate in the country. Xavier has had trouble in that department, making just 31.8% of its 3-point attempts (208th), and it also ranks 310th at the free-throw line (64.7%).
Entering its game against Saint Mary’s, Xavier ranked in just the 8th percentile in catch-and-shoot rate (per Synergy) and scored a below-average 0.72 points per possession on midrange jump shots, per ShotQuality. This is a contrarian four-star play, as the Musketeers just erupted for 100 points in their last game against Bryant. However, the Bulldogs play primarily zone defense, and Xavier will get a much different challenge from Oakland tonight.
DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as bet365 has the Under of 83.5 points juiced to -125.
Northern Illinois +12 vs. Northwestern (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
We have not had many five-star plays this college basketball season, but we are backing the Huskies as a five-star play as they look to win their second consecutive game against an in-state Power Five opponent.
Northern Illinois shredded DePaul’s defense on Saturday in an 89-79 victory with a blistering 1.20 points per possession and 45.5% shooting from 3-point range (10-for-22). However, the Huskies’ 35 free-throw attempts were arguably the most impressive, as the Blue Demons could not guard Northern Illinois’ quick guards off the dribble. DePaul has been somewhat short-handed without the services of Jalen Terry or Mac Etienne, and Northwestern will not run nearly as much isolation offense as DePaul. However, the Wildcats rank 263rd in effective field goal percentage defense and outside the top 320 in 3-point percentage defense. Thus, there is an avenue for Northern Illinois to score points in a game that will have more limited possessions than it is used to, given Northwestern’s slow tempo (354th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom).
We do not mind paying up slightly for -112 at BetRivers, the only shop offering a line higher than +11 or +11.5.
Saint Peter’s-Rutgers Under 123.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Two defensive-minded New Jersey schools battle and both teams are coming off unusually long layoffs (seven days for Saint Peter’s, 11 days for Rutgers), as neither played over Thanksgiving week. The Under has cashed in 16 of the Peacocks’ 26 games with four-plus days off since the start of the 2021 season and has also cashed in 16 of Rutgers’ 26 games when it has the rest advantage in that same time frame.
Possessions should be at a premium in this game, with each team playing at tempos outside the top 250-fastest in the country (Saint Peter’s is the 360th-slowest team). And given how exceptional Rutgers’ interior defense has been (it ranks third in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 39.9% inside the arc), the Peacocks will have to make perimeter shots, something they have not done consistently this season (they are shooting 28.4% from 3-point range).
This would be a more confident four-star play if the line were not moving toward the Over (the O/U was 122 at most shops on Sunday night). Nevertheless, we are headed to FanDuel for this wager, as it is the only sportsbook charging less than the standard -110 odds for an O/U of 123.5.
College basketball best bets made 11/27/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET
March Madness betting odds pages
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