🏀 Best March Madness Upset Picks Today: Sweet 16 Underdog Plays for Thursday (March 26)
The 2026 NCAA Tournament has been dominated by betting favorites, winning 39 of 48 games through the first two rounds with the best record against the spread (29-19 ATS) in almost 20 years.
Our March Madness upset picks today aren't exactly calling for that to change, but our college basketball experts do see value on the point spread for two of the four betting underdogs tonight as part of our March Madness predictions for every Sweet 16 game.
🚨 Arkansas +8.5 vs. Arizona (9:45 PM ET, CBS) ⭐⭐⭐
Here’s why Mike Spector is backing the Razorbacks to cover against the top-seeded Wildcats in his Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction ahead of tonight's matchup:
“Arizona’s physical dominance was on display in its win over Utah State, as it outrebounded the Aggies 54-to-26 and attempted 28 more free throws. But pessimists will say the Wildcats should’ve won by more than 12 given those disparities, and Utah State even had the game within five points late. Arkansas cannot expect to score much in transition or at the rim, as Arizona ranks in the 98th and 99th percentile in defensive efficiency metrics in those two areas, respectively. Instead, the Razorbacks can pick-and-roll the Wildcats to death while spacing the floor for its elite backcourt tandem.”
🔥 Want more Arkansas vs. Arizona picks?
Spector is fading Darius Acuff Jr.’s assist line and targets a Brayden Burries scoring prop in his Arkansas vs. Arizona player props in a matchup he expects to be defined by elite coaches scheming away the others' star.
🚨 Illinois +3.5 vs. Houston (10:05 PM ET, TBS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Here’s why Shane Thurston is backing the Fighting Illini as underdogs against Houston with his Illinois vs. Houston prediction for the Sweet 16:
“The battle of the game is Illinois’ No. 2 adjusted offensive efficiency against Houston’s No. 4 adjusted defensive efficiency. A big thing working in the Fighting Illini’s favor is their ability to create extra chances. Their offensive rebound rate of 39.2% ranks third in the country, while Houston’s defensive rebounding (30.1%) is slightly below the national average. In a coin-flip game, I think those extra chances will make all the difference in keeping Illinois within one possession.”
🔥 Want more Illinois vs. Houston picks?
Thurston also targets a David Mirkovic rebounding prop and a Keaton Wagler assist play in his Illinois vs. Houston player props, leaning into the Fighting Illini’s advantages on offense in this matchup.
🏀 March Madness Sweet 16 predictions & previews
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Game predictions | Player prop picks |
|---|---|
| Texas vs. Purdue prediction | Texas vs. Purdue player props |
| Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction | Iowa vs. Nebraska player props |
| Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction | Arkansas vs. Arizona player props |
| Illinois vs. Houston prediction | Illinois vs. Houston player props |
| St. John’s vs. Duke prediction | St. John’s vs. Duke player props (coming soon) |
| Michigan State vs. UConn prediction | Michigan State vs. UConn player props (coming soon) |
| Alabama vs. Michigan prediction | Alabama vs. Michigan player props (coming soon) |
| Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction | Tennessee vs. Iowa State player props (coming soon) |
More Sweet 16 expert picks
- March Madness survivor picks for Sweet 16, Elite Eight
- March Madness second chance bracket picks & predictions
- March Madness odds & best bets entering Sweet 16
- Final Four odds, best bets & sleepers entering Sweet 16
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