🏀 Arkansas vs. Arizona Prediction & Picks: March Madness Sweet 16 (March 26)

This Sweet 16 March Madness matchup between No. 4 seed Arkansas and No. 1 Arizona is one of two that pits conference tournament winners against one another. The Wildcats are an 8.5-point betting favorite, with tipoff from SAP Center at San Jose scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET and airing on CBS.

As part of our March Madness predictions, my Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction expects the Razorbacks to use Meleek Thomas as a great secondary scoring option to start freshman Darius Acuff Jr., en route to a cover of this big spread.

🏀 Arkansas vs. Arizona picks & odds: March Madness Sweet 16

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.82 units

🏆 Who will win Arkansas vs. Arizona?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Arizona faces a lot of pressure, as this is its fourth Sweet 16 under head coach Tommy Lloyd, though it has yet to advance past this round. This is the year the Wildcats get to their first Elite Eight under Lloyd, ending Arkansas' run in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year.

Score prediction: Arizona 86, Arkansas 79

💰 Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction & best bet

Arkansas +8.5 (-110)

Arizona’s physical dominance was on display in its win over Utah State, as it outrebounded the Aggies 54-to-26 and attempted 28 more free throws. But pessimists will say the Wildcats should’ve won by more than 12 given those disparities, and Utah State even had the game within five points late.

Arkansas cannot expect to score much in transition or at the rim, as Arizona ranks in the 98th and 99th percentile in defensive efficiency metrics in those two areas, respectively. Instead, the Razorbacks can pick-and-roll the Wildcats to death while spacing the floor for its elite backcourt tandem.

🔥 Best Arkansas vs. Arizona player prop bet

Meleek Thomas Over 13.5 points (-104)

Arizona is likely spending the week figuring out how to slow down Darius Acuff Jr., who became the only player to score 60-plus points and record 10 or more assists with five or fewer turnovers over any two-game span in the NCAA Tournament. 

While Acuff has shined, Meleek Thomas has quietly averaged 20 points in the two NCAA Tournament wins. He is shooting 40% from beyond the arc, and an efficient 59% from 2-point range. That lofty scoring average is encouraging as he has only attempted two free throws in the last two games.

Arizona has a much different prep for Arkansas, as Utah State only ranked in the seventh percentile in efficiency in pick-and-roll offense. I look for John Calipari’s squad to use Acuff and Thomas to spread out the Wildcats, with the latter serving as an excellent complementary scoring option.

🚀 Arkansas vs. Arizona same-game parlay

FanDuel is my go-to top sports betting site for this same-game parlay, as it offers the best number and price on all three legs. While backing Thomas to go Over his projected points total seems to contradict with the full-game Under, my thinking is that Arizona will sell out to limit Darius Acuff Jr.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Arkansas vs. Arizona: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

All of my wagers are one-unit plays, though I toyed with the idea of risking more on Arkansas +8.5 as a contrarian play to the favorites' dominance thus far in this tournament. But a play on the Razorbacks is backed by the trend that John Calipari entered with the best ATS record (9-3-1) of any active coach as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament (min. 7 games).

Meanwhile, while Arkansas has averaged 95.5 points in its first two wins, Arizona's third-ranked defense based on adjusted defensive efficiency should help the Under cash for the ninth time in the Wildcats' 15th game against ranked opponents.

📊 Live Arkansas vs. Arizona odds: March Madness Sweet 16

All of the best sports betting sites are in unison with Arizona as 8.5-point betting favorites. In the Round of 64 and the Round of 32, closing favorites finished 39-9 SU and 29-19 ATS, which is the best ATS mark for favorites through this point in the tournament since 2008. Thus, despite Arkansas attracting 63% of the early wagers, I don't expect the line to move in its favor given how dominant favorites have been.

Comparatively, I expect movement at some point in the total, as the market is aligned with an O/U of 166.5, but 70% of the early wagers have backed the Over. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game tip with a total of 167 or higher.

📈 Arkansas vs. Arizona betting trends

📺 How to watch Arkansas vs. Arizona: March Madness Sweet 16

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Location: SAP Center at San Jose (San Jose, Calif.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+