🏀 Timberwolves vs. Lakers Player Props: Why Luka Doncic Stays Under Tonight
The Los Angeles Lakers have won back-to-back games without LeBron James in the lineup, but he may return tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, as he is questionable with hip and foot injuries. With James’ status still uncertain at the time of publication, there is value in fading Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards, as both of their points props are too high.
My Timberwolves vs. Lakers player props tonight expect a low-scoring matchup. The Timberwolves are a 2.5-point betting favorite over the Lakers, with tipoff from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles scheduled for 11 p.m. ET (NBC; streaming on Peacock).
🏀 Best Timberwolves vs. Lakers player props tonight: NBA picks for March 10
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves | Under 29.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) | 1.1u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Luka Doncic, Lakers | Under 32.5 points (-109 via DraftKings) | 1.09u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.19 units | Max profit: 2 units
💰 Best Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop bet
Anthony Edwards has the second-shortest odds to win NBA Clutch Player of the Year.
Anthony Edwards Under 29.5 points (-110)
Edwards scored 31 points against the Lakers’ defense on Oct. 24, but they’ve been trending upward recently, with L.A. ranking fifth in the West in defensive efficiency over the last three games.
Two of those games were against the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks, who are ranked first and third, respectively, in offensive efficiency. Coach JJ Redick is turning this defense around, and the market hasn’t caught up yet. BetMGM lists Edwards Under 29.5 points at -110, but this bet is good up to -130 at the best sports betting sites.
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🔥 More Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Luka Doncic Under 32.5 points (-109)
Doncic scored 49 points against Minnesota in their Oct. 24 matchup, and it's unlikely that a Timberwolves defense ranked fourth in the West in defensive efficiency would let him score 30 or more for a second straight meeting.
Even last season, when Doncic faced the Timberwolves as a member of the Lakers, he only scored 33 or more points in two of their six matchups (including the playoffs). Doncic Under 32.5 points is -109 at DraftKings, but I would play this at the best NBA betting sites up to -125.
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💡 How I'm betting Timberwolves vs. Lakers
I'm betting a total of 2.19 units on this game, which is around what I would normally risk on two player props, with 1 unit accounting for 1% of the money I have set aside solely for sports betting.
While I'm confident directionally in both of these plays, these lines are not far off from where I'd price them. I expect tonight to be a close, low-scoring game, as the spread is just 2.5 points and the Lakers' defense has been trending upward recently.
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💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 45-46-3 | +0.7 units ✅ | 0.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 44-38-3 | +2.04 units ✅ | 1.9% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
🚑 Timberwolves vs. Lakers injuries
📺 How to watch Timberwolves vs. Lakers
- Date: Tuesday, March 10
- Tipoff: 11 p.m. ET
- Location: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | Over 17.5 points | -110 |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | Over 8.5 rebounds + assists | -105 |
| Devin Booker | Suns | Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists | -120 |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | Under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists | -110 |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | Under 20.5 points + rebounds | -150 |
It makes sense that Jalen Duren Over 17.5 points is the most-bet player prop at BetMGM.
He has been on a tear since the All-Star break, scoring 24 or more points in six of nine games during that span. However, he has slowed down recently; I would jump on this number if it drops to 16.5.
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