Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds & Game 6 Best Bet Tonight: NBA Finals

Can the Indiana Pacers live to fight another day? We analyze the underdogs chances of forcing a seventh and deciding game.

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: June 19, 2025 5:30 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds & Game 6 Best Bet Tonight — Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams controls the ball against Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin. Photo by Kyle Terada via Imagn Images.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from capturing their first NBA title since relocating, heading into Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Indiana Pacers tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse (ESPN). Our Thunder vs. Pacers prediction breaks down the odds, key matchups, and best bets for this pivotal clash.

OKC is a 6.5-point favorite at our best sports betting sites and looks to close out the series behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, both of whom our Thunder vs. Pacers player props target.

🔮 Thunder vs. Pacers prediction & picks for Game 6

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✅ Thunder vs. Pacers prediction: Pacers (+172 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Jalen Williams Over 23.5 points (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Thunder vs. Pacers?

This series is starting to look eerily similar to the Denver vs. Oklahoma City series. The Thunder are 3-1 in clinch games during this postseason, but two of those performances were far from convincing, and it's no surprise those games were away from Paycom Center. Mark Daigneault's men have struggled at times in opposing arenas.

Oklahoma City needed a herculean fourth quarter effort from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 4 to avoid putting itself in a 3-1 hole. While we believe the Thunder will win the NBA Finals, we're not anticipating Indiana going down without a fight. The Pacers haven't lost three consecutive contests since early March.

✅ Moneyline pick: Pacers will win (+172 via FanDuel)

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💰 Thunder vs. Pacers best bet

Here is my best bet for Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals:

📈 Jalen Williams Over 23.5 points

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.62 profit)
Implied win probability: 50.98%

Williams, who has a case for NBA Finals MVP, terrorized Indiana's defense in Game 4, dropping 40 points in a performance that helped give Oklahoma City its first lead in the 2025 NBA Finals. It marks the third straight showing that the 24-year-old has scored 25-plus points, easily clearing his scoring prop.

The Thunder found a lot of success in Game 5 by pulling Indiana's physical bigs out of the paint with Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren screens. This opened a lane for the physical All-NBA forward to drive to the cup. If Oklahoma City has similar success in Game 6, Williams should clear this line with ease.

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps still offering Williams' total at 22.5, but for an inflated price of -125. Seeing as the young star has stuffed the stat sheet recently, though, I'm comfortable tacking on an extra point to the total for the value found at FanDuel (-104).

🔢 Thunder vs. Pacers updated betting insights

Updated betting info via BetMGM.

The Thunder have 61% of the money and 58% of bets on them to cover the spread
The Over has 86% of the money and 76% of bets on it
The Pacers moneyline has 52% of the money and 75% of bets on them
The Over on Bennedict Mathurin's points (10.5) is the most bet prop

🏀 Thunder vs. Pacers odds

Here are the live odds for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 6. See the latest NBA odds for the NBA Finals from our best NBA betting sites.

Odds analysis

Early action sides with my analysis that a Game 7 is in the cards, with 66% of tickets coming in on the home team. However, we've seen the spread move in Indiana's favor since opening at +5.5, as the host is now trading at +6.5.

We've also seen the total move in the opposite direction of the number of tickets. With a majority (65%) of the tickets being cast on the Over, the opening line has plummeted from 225.5 to 222.5.

💵 Best NBA betting sites

Want to bet on Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 6? Here are the best NBA betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the 2025 NBA Finals:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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Written by:
Gabe Henderson

Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.