NBA Rookie of the Year Odds & Predictions: Favorite Cooper Flagg’s Trophy to Lose?

The newest face of the Dallas Mavericks franchise should help fans forget all about the sting of losing Luka Doncic. Cooper Flagg enters the 2025-26 NBA season as the betting favorite by the preseason NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Flagg has been a minus-odds favorite since going No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft, which makes sense considering how often top picks win this award. Since LeBron James’ debut season, nine of the past 22 Rookie of the Year winners have been the first overall pick.

Will that continue this year with a generational prospect? Let’s dive into my NBA Rookie of the Year predictions and best bets for this year's race.

📊 NBA Rookie of the Year odds 2025-26

NBA Rookie of the Year odds update live in real time; see the latest NBA odds for every game.

🏆 Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

Check out all of our NBA picks entering the regular season.

Cooper Flagg, SF, Mavericks (-170)

Flagg has an extremely high chance of winning this award, which is why he’s been a minus-odds favorite since draft night. He’s the third minus-odds preseason favorite since 2007, following in the footsteps of Victor Wembanyama (-145 in 2023-24) and Kevin Durant (-200 in 2007-08) - both players ultimately won the award.

Those numbers are from the Sports Odds History database, which typically pulls the lines from BetMGM to start the season. That’s notable because BetMGM currently lists Flagg at -225 to win this award (69.23% implied probability), which would make him the biggest preseason favorite in the past 18 years.

Based on that alone, DraftKings appears to be offering a discount on the rookie stepping into the biggest role on Day 1. A $10 bet would net $5.88.

💰 Best bet to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Our NBA player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including Rookie of the Year odds) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

Ace Bailey, SF, Jazz (+1000)

Since draft night, I’ve been telling anyone who will listen (mostly my wife) that Ace Bailey is the only bet you can make for NBA Rookie of the Year. Even Wembanyama lost his title as a favorite at one point during his debut season, allowing us to build a two-player portfolio between him and Chet Holmgren.

That’s the path for Bailey, who was selected No. 5 overall by the Utah Jazz. He will put up numbers, as evidenced by his two 20-point performances in the preseason. That’s what voters care about, with the average Rookie of the Year winner since 2003-04 producing 17.7 points per game. Only two winners averaged fewer than 15 points over that span.

Bailey left his most recent preseason game with a knee issue. Assuming he’s healthy for the opener, Bailey is my favorite bet in this market with his +1000 odds via BetMGM returning a $100 profit on a $10 wager.

🎯 Best NBA Rookie of the Year long shot

Follow along with the rest of our NBA analysis for more futures picks.

Ryan Kalkbrenner, C, Hornets (+25000)

Look, I’m not going to lie to you: it’s nearly impossible to win this award as a long shot, especially in a class with a generational prospect.

It’s best to target the names near the top of the draft class, as there have been only five Rookie of the Year winners who weren’t top-four picks since 2003-04. Of those five, three were No. 6 selections, one was the No. 11 pick, and Malcolm Brogdon is the only second-round pick to claim ROY honors.

All of that said, Charlotte Hornets center Ryan Kalkbrenner - a Round 2 pick - could earn the starting job right away for a team that traded away all its big men. Kalkbrenner is coming off a 14-point, 10-rebound performance in his last preseason game.

If you are into closing line value, this 250/1 price tag at FanDuel could be worth a flier. On the off chance it gets to the window, we’d take home $2,500 in profit on a $10 bet.