NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Can Anyone Catch Cooper Flagg?

It's no surprise to see Cooper Flagg open as the NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorite after being selected No. 1 by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA draft, but the former Duke star is one of the biggest favorites in recent memory.

With his opening odds (-200) implying a 66.67% probability he'll win the award, he's a bigger opening favorite than San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama was two years ago (-145). Can Flagg live up to the hype and run away with the NBA Rookie of the Year odds race, or are other players worth watching?

🏆 Opening NBA Rookie of the Year odds

Here are the opening NBA Rookie of the Year odds from DraftKings as of Thursday, June 26:

• Cooper Flagg, Mavericks (-200)
• Dylan Harper, Spurs (+900)
• Ace Bailey, Jazz (+1000)
• Tre Johnson, Wizards (+1200)
• VJ Edgecombe, 76ers (+2200)
• Egor Demin, Nets (+2200)
• Kon Knueppel, Hornets (+4000)
• Jeremiah Fears, Pelicans (+4000)
• Kasparas Jakucionis, Heat (+5000)
• Derik Queen, Pelicans (+5000)
• Noa Essengue, Bulls (+7500)
• Khaman Maluach, Suns (+7500)
• Collin Murray-Boyles, Raptors (+7500)
• Cedric Coward, Grizzlies (+7500)

🐎 Cooper Flagg NBA Rookie of the Year odds

As long as Flagg is healthy, it's going to be hard for any player to make the NBA Rookie of the Year odds race close. While maybe not quite on the same level as Victor Wembanyama as a prospect, Flagg was ranked the No. 2 NBA draft prospect of the last decade by The Athletic's Sam Vecenie. That puts him above past No. 1 picks to go on to win NBA Rookie of the Year like Karl-Anthony Towns, Paolo Banchero, and Ben Simmons.

While this award has gone to the No. 1 pick only four times in the last 10 years, seven of the No. 1 picks have gone on to earn All-Star honors - that's a pretty good hit rate for top picks. So it's safe to assume Flagg will live up to the hype after winning the Wooden Award at Duke last season while averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks while shooting 38.5% from behind the arc.

Flagg isn't just an all-around offensive threat; he's a player with NBA All-Defensive Team ability thanks to his length, basketball IQ, and non-stop competitive motor. He's also being dropped onto a team that could compete for the playoffs if Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis stay healthy, further bolstering his NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

As long as Flagg is healthy, he should win this award. And while these odds are short, they're worth betting now. By December, it wouldn't be a shock to see his odds as short as -500. According to BetMGM, Flagg's ticket percentage is 13% and his handle percentage is 13.6%, but those only rank second behind the player who was taken one pick after him, Dylan Harper.

📊 Best odds: -190 via FanDuel ($10 bet to win $5.26)

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👀 Other NBA Rookie of the Year contenders to watch

👢 Dylan Harper NBA Rookie of the Year odds

The last two NBA Rookie of the Year winners have been San Antonio Spurs. Can Harper make it a three-peat? Most year's he would have been the No. 1 pick and would have opened as the overwhelming favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, but he just happens to be in the same class as a transcendent talent. However, it's Harper who has the highest ticket percentage (21.7%) and handle percentage (29.8%) at BetMGM - he's the biggest liability for the book.

The Rutgers product should be in for a huge debut season alongside Wemby and De'Aaron Fox. Even with Stephon Castle winning this award last season, expect Harper to be starting in the backcourt for this team early in his rookie campaign. He's that good.

While the Scarlet Knights couldn't capitalize on having Harper and Ace Bailey last season, the son of five-time NBA champion Ron Harper was not the problem. He routinely showed an ability to get to the rim or the charity stripe, set up his teammates, and was a feisty defender. 

Harper is the most logical player to bet outside of Flagg.

📊 Best odds: +1200 via FanDuel ($10 bet to win $120)

🧙‍♂️ Tre Johnson NBA Rookie of the Year odds

If you're looking for an NBA Rookie of the Year odds bet to make that focuses on a player poised to put up big numbers, Tre Johnson is your man. The No. 6 pick has odds as short as +850 at some of our best sports betting sites, thanks in part to his landing spot with the Washington Wizards.

While the Wizards have a handful of brand names, most of them are closer to checking into an old folks home than they are to their prime at this point. For a team that has no shot at the playoffs, it makes much more sense to give Johnson minutes than the likes of C.J. McCollum and Marcus Smart.

Johnson has a legitimate chance to be right there with Flagg when it comes to points per game as a rookie. As a freshman at Texas last season, he averaged 19.9 per game and shot 39.7% from 3-point range. He's a gifted scorer who put up 23 points and hit four threes in the Longhorns' lone March Madness game.

Assuming the Wizards don't botch his playing time (no guarantee), Johnson is the best bet after Flagg and Harper.

📊 Best odds: +1200 via DraftKings ($10 bet to win $120)

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🔔 VJ Edgecombe NBA Rookie of the Year odds

It's a tough sell betting on any players outside of Flagg, Harper, and Johnson, but VJ Edgecombe is certainly interesting. He joins a Philadelphia 76ers team that could climb the NBA championship odds if Joel Embiid stays healthy, a big if. But the downside with Edgecombe is he'll likely be the team's fourth option on offense at best.

Don't get me wrong, Edgecombe has the goods and should be an immediate impact defender - he was fourth in the Big 12 in steals per game at Baylor last year (2.1) - but defense usually doesn't win this award. Unless he's approaching 16 points per game, more than he averaged for the Bears, he probably doesn't have a shot if Flagg, Harper, and Johnson are healthy.

📊 Best odds: +2500 via FanDuel ($10 bet to win $250)

🐝 Kon Knueppel  NBA Rookie of the Year odds

Flagg's college teammate enters a situation that's hard to project with the Charlotte Hornets being perpetually insignificant. They also have a former NBA Rookie of the Year in LaMelo Ball, who can never stay healthy, and a 20-plus-point-per-game scorer in former No. 2 pick Brandon Miller.

On paper, a Ball-Miller-Kon Knueppel trio looks great, but with those two there, plus Miles Bridges, winning NBA Rookie of the Year will be tough. Knueppel is a smooth scorer with big-time 3-point shooting ability - he shot 40.6% for the Blue Devils last year, which could help his case. However, it seems more likely he'll be a designated sharpshooter as a rookie and likely won't average more than 14 points per game.

📊 Best odds: +4000 via DraftKings ($10 bet to win $400)

🎶 Walter Clayton Jr. NBA Rookie of the Year odds

If you want to bet a massive long shot, why not the guy who just carried Florida back to the mountain top with his March heroics? While the odds imply a less than 1% chance that Clayton wins NBA Rookie of the Year, he's probably the most fun bet to make when it comes to a non-lottery pick.

The No. 18 pick in the draft joins a Utah Jazz team that took Bailey No. 5, after speculation that he didn't want to go there, but could see similar playing time to the higher-drafted rookie. Clayton's shot-making and creation ability could give him a defined role off the bench early, and if he impresses enough, the Jazz could consider playing him starter minutes. I mean, what do they have to lose when they'll be losing games anyway?

Betting on Clayton is a dart throw, but it's a more calculated dart throw than banking on any of the other rookies with odds that are +10000 or longer. So while Bailey has the third-highest ticket percentage at BetMGM (10.9%), it's Clayton who's the second biggest liability for the book after Harper.

📊 Best odds: +10000 via FanDuel ($10 bet to win $1,000 profit)

🏀 Best NBA betting sites

Looking to bet on the NBA Rookie of the Year? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for the Association.

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