NBA Player Prop Picks, Predictions for Thursday: Embiid, James, and Doncic

Jon Metler examines the NBA player prop market and finds three of his favorite bets.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 12, 2023 9:41 AM EST • 4 minute read

A number of marquee NBA games are scheduled for Thursday, including a matchup between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. Using the latest NBA odds, I have selected three of my favorite NBA player props for Thursday's games.

The NBA will see a number of superstar players in action on Thursday, including LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Some of these stars will even face off against each other.

While reviewing Thursday's player props, I found a common theme: these players had a lot of value on the Under. There is one Over that I believe everyone will enjoy on Thursday, but for the most part some of your best bets will be Under on the superstar players.

Here are our best NBA player prop picks for Thursday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Celtics vs. Nets picks and our Mavericks vs. Lakers picks!

NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday

Joel Embiid Under 43.5 points + rebounds (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
LeBron James Under 47.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Mavericks vs. Lakers Odds

NBA Player Props

Joel Embiid Under 43.5 points + rebounds (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here comes the fun police version of my NBA player prop betting, I know we all prefer to bet on the Over, but I think this number is just too good to pass up on Joel Embiid on Thursday.

Embiid recently returned from injury, and the Philadelphia 76ers are 9.5-point favorites against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. Embiid may see lower minutes than he is used to against the Thunder if the game gets out of hand.

There is a rogue number available here that will enable us to increase the value of this wager. Embiid's points and rebounds prop is trading at 43.5 at FanDuel and PointsBet, while every other sportsbook is trading at 42.5 with similar juice.

The projections indicate that Embiid will combine for just over 40 points and rebounds against the Thunder, which is well below the total of 43.5. Given our projections, this prop should be trading at -178 and is showing a positive expected value of 19%, making it a four-star bet.

LeBron James Under 47.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

After going Under on Embiid today, I was on the hunt for some Overs, but I think it's rude to not share a five-star bet when you find one, just because it's an Under.

The Under is a solid bet for James's point total of 31.5, his rebounding total of 8.5, and his assists total of 6.5. If you add them all together, you get 46.5, so in addition to liking the props individually, we're getting an extra point, rebound, or assist with the combo total trading at 47.5 at FanDuel.

Based on James' projected points + rebounds + assists total, the Under 47.5 should trade at -200, not -111. This projection is well below the total of 47.5, which is why this bet has a positive expected value of 26% and is given a five-star rating.

James' prop also provides the opportunity for price shopping. FanDuel and PointsBet are the only sites trading this prop at 47.5, while BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars are all trading it at 46.5. As long as the juice is comparable, you should take advantage of this 47.5 at FanDuel or PointsBet in order to increase your expected value by 5 - 7%.

Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

As promised earlier, I was hunting for an Over for everyone and found a nice one involving both a certified dime dropper as well as a player everyone can enjoy rooting for. There are not many times when you see an edge on a Luka Doncic prop going Over, so when it occurs, you hit the button.

I'm seeing Doncic projected to have 9.4 assists against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday, which means the Over 8.5 assists should be traded at -140. As we see BetMGM trading the Over at -130 and Caesars at -128, I believe the market might reach our -140 price point on this prop.

We have a positive expected value of 7% in this bet on Doncic based on our price of -140. This is a much smaller edge than we had with the Under on Embiid and James, which is why it's only rated three stars.

If you wish to place this bet, you should do so at FanDuel who has it priced at -118. If you lay the -130 BetMGM has the Over trading at instead of the -118 via FanDuel, your positive expected value drops from 7% to 3%.

NBA player prop picks made 01/12/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.