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Mavericks vs. Lakers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can L.A. Top Doncic at Home?

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: January 12, 2023 9:43 AM EST • 3 min 10 sec read.

LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers laughs during a game against the Phoenix Suns, and we offer new U.S. bettors our exclusive bet365 bonus code.
LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers laughs during a game against the Phoenix Suns. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

Superstars collide as LeBron James and Luka Doncic face off in Los Angeles. Read on for our Dallas Mavericks-Los Angeles Lakers NBA picks based on the top NBA odds.

After reeling off seven straight wins, the Dallas Mavericks head to Los Angeles on a two-game skid. Dallas has lost three of four, and the team should be highly motivated at Crypto.com Arena. The Mavs defeated the Lakers 124-115 on Christmas Day and will look to make it two in a row against the purple and gold.

The Los Angeles Lakers had a five-game winning streak snapped by the Denver Nuggets in their last game out, and LeBron James will need to be the best player on the court if he hopes to guide Los Angeles to a win. The Lakers are still without Anthony Davis, and key reserves such as Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker are on the sidelines.

Here is our best Mavericks vs. Lakers NBA pick (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Celtics vs. Nets picks and our best NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Game Info

Date: Thursday, Jan. 12, 10 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Mavericks vs. Lakers Odds

Mavericks vs. Lakers Odds Analysis

The Mavericks are short favorites on the road, and the 3.5-point line hasn’t moved much. I’m picking Los Angeles to win this one outright, so I’d bet this spread even if it came all the way down to a pick ‘em. Neither team has been great against the spread this season, with Dallas going 14-26-2 overall and Los Angeles going 18-22-1. The Mavs are 3-9 as the road favorite and just 6-14 overall. The Lakers are 6-4 as the home underdog and 9-9 at home.

While the spread has remained steady, the total has climbed significantly from an opening of 228.5 to its current 235.5. Both teams have hit the Over frequently this season. Dallas sports an Over/Under record of 24-18, and L.A.'s’ is 24-17.

The Mavs are 13-5 following a loss, 10-10 on the road and 15-10 against Western Conference opponents. The Lakers are 6-4 as the home underdog, 10-8 at home and 13-8 following a loss. Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game after the teams combined to score 239 points in their prior season matchup.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Pick

Lakers ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Forget about covering. As mentioned above, we’re rolling with the Lakers to win. L.A. is much better at home than on the road, and the team is 6-4 straight up as the home underdog this season. The Lakers are 10-8 at home compared to just 9-14 on the road. Dallas is also far better at home with a 16-6 record compared to a 7-13 record on the road that includes a 6-6 record as the road favorite.

L.A. ranks 27th in points per game allowed this season, but once again, playing at home makes the team better. The Lakers have surrendered 121 points per game on the road this season but just 113.6 at home. Slowing down Luka Doncic (no easy task) will be key for Los Angeles, as the Mavericks depend on their superstar for the vast majority of the team’s offensive contributions. 

There’s also a bit of history on the line, as James needs only 35 points to become the second player in NBA history with 38,000. He’s surely aware of the milestone, and we’d expect a big game from him in the win. The Lakers are 5-1 when he scores at least 35 this season, and the team is 11-8 in those situations over the last two seasons.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Best Odds

Caesars (+130)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+125+124+125+130+130

The moneyline opened at +135 for L.A. and those odds have gotten shorter at all of our major sportsbooks. DraftKings and BetMGM offer +125 odds, while FanDuel’s odds are slightly shorter.

The spread is little more than a 3-point basket, and home dogs are 126-91-6 ATS this season. We can bet the Lakers to cover for standard -110 odds, but the best value is on the moneyline by taking this wager a step further and getting it at +130 at Caesars or PointsBet.

I’m intrigued by LeBron’s points prop, especially noting the historical significance of a 35-point performance. If you enable Single Game Parlay on PointsBet, you can get James to score 35 points at +120 and combine it with the Lakers moneyline wager for a tidy +406 parlay.

Mavericks-Lakers pick made 01/12/2023 at 11:15 a .m. ET.

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.