USA vs. Australia Prediction, Odds, Picks: Women's Olympic Basketball, Aug. 9
Team USA has won 59 straight games and is one win away from cashing as massive Olympic women's basketball odds favorites to win an eighth straight gold medal. First, it'll have to get past Australia in Friday's semifinal, which tips off at 11:30 a.m. ET from AccorHotels Arena.
The Americans are favored by 17.5 points to beat Australia across our best sports betting sites, though our USA vs. Australia prediction doesn't envision such a wide margin given what we've seen so far in Paris 2024.
USA vs. Australia predictions for Friday
USA vs. Australia odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Australia +17.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Alanna Smith Over 6.5 rebounds (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Prediction: Australia +17.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
At a certain point, it might be time to admit that this USA team isn't all that invested in winning by a blowout margin.
Heading into this tournament, the Americans had outscored opponents by 29.3 points per game over the last seven Olympics. That average scoring margin has dropped to 18 points, even with a roster as talented as ever.
The Australians boast more WNBA-level talent than perhaps any team outside of the USA, with Samantha Whitcomb (14.8 PPG) leading the way offensively and Alanna Smith (12.3) and Ezi Magbegor (9.3) chipping in while anchoring the Opals' defense.
Australia has won three straight games after a slow start in the group stage, and I suspect it'll give the Americans a run for their money in the semifinals.
Odds: -105 | Implied probability: 51.22%
Prediction: Alanna Smith Over 6.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alanna Smith didn't see as much playing time as you might expect in the group stage, but the star center was a featured focus in the quarterfinals, leading her team in points (22) and rebounds (13) while playing her most minutes in this tournament (28).
Her presence will be crucial against the Americans, who have bullied their way to the semifinals on the strength of their frontcourt. I expect Australia to once again rely on Smith for 25-plus minutes, as she's one of the best interior defenders in this tournament as well as one of her team's best rebounders.
Odds: -102 | Implied probability: 50.50%
USA vs. Australia odds & game info
| USA | Australia | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -4000 | +1550 |
| Spread | -17.5 (-115) | +17.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110) |
- When: Friday, Aug. 9
- Tip-off: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Where: AccorHotels Arena (Paris)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock (streaming)
- Favorite: USA -17.5 (-115)
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