NBA MVP Odds & Predictions 2025-26: SGA vs. Jokic, Part 2

Welcome to the least compelling NBA awards race.

Now, I’d love for you to keep reading, but I have to warn you that the winner will likely be one of the NBA MVP odds favorites. That’s been the case for multiple seasons, as the best players in the league typically separate themselves with video game numbers.

There is a very good chance this year’s NBA MVP race will feature two or three leading candidates all season between Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Doncic. So which should you bet, and is there a long shot worth targeting, too?

📊 NBA MVP odds 2025-26

NBA MVP odds update live in real time; see the latest NBA odds for every game.

🏆 Who will win NBA MVP?

Check out all of our NBA picks entering the regular season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Thunder (+275)

Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to repeat for a reason. The 27-year-old has the best chance of winning the award given his age, statistical production, and team success.

The Thunder have claimed the No. 1 seed in back-to-back seasons and project to be a juggernaut after winning last year’s NBA Finals. Six of the previous seven MVP winners have been on teams that finished in the top three of their respective conference, highlighting the importance of winning in voters' eyes.

Voters also love giving players a second straight MVP, especially when they’ve had success in the postseason. There have been five back-to-back MVP winners since the 2008-09 campaign.

DraftKings and Caesars are the only shops not listing SGA as the rightful favorite with both offering a $27.50 profit on a $10 bet at these +275 odds.

💰 Best bet to win NBA MVP

Our NBA player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including MVP odds) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets (+300)

If SGA doesn’t repeat as MVP, it will almost certainly be because Jokic reminded everyone he’s still the best player in the world. The Nuggets star has won three MVP awards with two runner-up finishes over the past five years.

The Nuggets added some depth around Jokic this offseason as they look to improve on their fourth-place finish in the West last year. If Denver challenges Oklahoma City near the top of this conference, Jokic will be a legitimate threat in this race.

It might seem chalky, but building a portfolio around these two players is the best way to attack the NBA MVP race. Jokic’s +300 odds at FanDuel offer an opportunity to grab a preseason position, netting $30 on a $10 bet if he wins a fourth MVP award.

🎯 Best NBA MVP long shot

Follow along with the rest of our NBA analysis for more futures picks.

Paolo Banchero, PF, Magic (+12500)

I hate to spoil the fun, but a long shot isn’t winning the NBA MVP award. There have only been four MVP winners who entered the year with longer than +1000 odds since 2011-12: Stephen Curry (+1600 in 14-15), James Harden (+1100 in 17-18), and Jokic twice (+2500 in 20-21 and +1600 in 21-22).

For this exercise, you are betting on a surprise player to be in the mix as an All-NBA candidate. DraftKings offers odds for the five players to be named to the All-NBA first team, which often correlates to the top vote-getters in the MVP race.

With that in mind, Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero is my upside pick this year. He’s poised to make a leap in his fourth season after averaging 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 46 games last year. The Magic also project as one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, which would put Banchero in a conversation he’s never been in before.

Banchero’s MVP odds are as long as 125/1 at FanDuel, which would turn a $10 wager into a $1,250 profit if he does win the award. He’s also 14/1 to be named to the All-NBA first team at DraftKings, which might be the better angle to bet.