Is Tonight Nikola Jokic's Last Chance to Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in NBA MVP Odds?
The NBA MVP race is the talk of the town around the Association. Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai-Gilgeous Alexander has remained the favorite for much of the season. However, Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic's record-breaking performances are seeing fans second-guess whether the race is done and dusted.
Our look at the NBA MVP odds highlight the state of the award as the Nuggets and Thunder prepare to square off for the fourth and final time this season.
While Jokic clawed back into the race last week with the NBA's first 30/20/20 performance, Gilgeous-Alexander answered by dropping 40 on the Nuggets' head on Sunday. The latter's remained in firm control with the dominant scoring showing, according to our best sports betting sites.
Our Shane Jackson makes his Nuggets vs. Thunder player props and predictions for tonight's game. The hosts are 9.5-point favorites at BetMGM in the final meeting this season between Western Conference foes.
Read on for our analysis of the NBA MVP odds race ahead of tipoff tonight.
đĸ Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jokic statistics
Here is a head-to-head statistical comparison between the two NBA MVP contenders, as of March 10:
| Player | Points | Assists | Rebounds | Steals | Blocks | Win shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 32.9 PPG | 6.2 APG | 5.1 RPG | 1.8 SPG | 1.0 BPG | 14.1 |
| Nikola Jokic | 28.8 PPG | 10.5 APG | 12.9 RPG | 1.8 SPG | 0.7 BPG | 13.8 |
đĨ Head-to-head performances
Oklahoma City leads the season series 2-1. Both stars have been excellent in each meeting, but the two double-digit wins for the Thunder could make a difference down the stretch.
đī¸ Oct. 24, 2024: Oklahoma City 102, Denver 87
Gilgeous-Alexander's 28 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds helped elevate the Thunder to a 15-point win in Denver. Despite Jokic's best efforts (16 points, 13 assists, 12 rebounds), the hosts fell short.
đī¸ Nov. 6, 2024: Denver 124, Oklahoma City 122
This time, the big man got the better of his MVP opposition, with the Nuggets defending home court with a two-point win. Jokic enjoyed one of his best games of the season (23 points, 16 assists, 20 rebounds) as one of four starters with 20-plus points. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander posted 28 points, six assists, and two rebounds in the loss.
đī¸ March 9, 2025: Oklahoma City 127, Denver 103
Oklahoma City clinched at least a share of the season series with Sunday's convincing victory. Gilgeous-Alexander cemented his spot atop the MVP race as he dropped 40 points, five assists, and eight rebounds in the win. Jokic's 24 points, nine assists, and 13 rebounds weren't enough to keep pace with the Western Conference front-runners.
đŠī¸ The case for Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander has been knocking on the door of the MVP award for the last couple of campaigns. He's progressively moved up the MVP ladder, finishing fifth in 2022-23, second in 2023-24, and leads all contenders this season.
Despite missing Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren for large parts of the year, Oklahoma City is on its way to clinching the No. 1 seed in the West for a second consecutive season. This success is large-in-part due to Gilgeous-Alexander's play.
The seventh-year guard leads the NBA in scoring at 32.9 points per game, two points better than Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.9 PPG) in second. He's also the NBA leader in win shares. Gilgeous-Alexander (14.1) and Jokic (13.8) are miles ahead of the trailing pack in this metric, with Cleveland's Jarrett Allen (9.5) in third.
Gilgeous-Alexander might not be as much of a statistical freak as Jokic, but he isn't asked to be. The Thunder are on pace to break an NBA margin of victory record that's stood for half a century, as they're beating opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game. SGA is a huge reason for this success as he's one of the league's most efficient players.
The argument for the 26-year-old is relatively straightforward: he is the best player on one of the league's best teams.
đī¸ The case for Jokic
Jokic has been other-worldly this season. The three-time MVP is enjoying the best season of his career and is on pace to set career-highs in points per game, assists per game, steals per game, and 3-point percentage, among other metrics.
Jokic ranks top three in points, assists, and rebounds per game, and he has the 11th-best field-goal percentage in the league. The Nuggets' leader in all major statistics is the big man, who is well on his way to becoming the third player in NBA history (Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook) to average a triple-double throughout an entire campaign.
While Jokic would be joining an elite group, history isn't on his side as far as the MVP award is concerned. If his numbers hold, Jokic's would be the sixth-such season in NBA history - only once did the player who averaged a triple-double also win MVP (Westbrook in 2016-17).
The best argument for Jokic is that, by definition, he is the league's most valuable player. He isn't accumulating empty stats, as his contributions are necessary as he helps carry Denver over the finish line each night. The big man is playing at an unparalleled all-around level for the Nuggets, carrying his supporting cast to a remarkable regular season record.
đŽ NBA MVP prediction
It's impossible to ignore what Gilgeous-Alexander has done in Oklahoma City this year. The strides he's taken as a scorer are undeniable, and they appear to be enough to get the guard over the hump after last year's second-place finish.
The unfortunate reality for Jokic is that the MVP seldom lives up to its name. Instead, voters opt to hand the hardware to the best player from one of the top regular season squads. There's also the senseless voter fatigue angle. Jokic has been named MVP in three of the last four years, and this is his best campaign to date.
At the end of the day, Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't allowed this race to come down to the wire. He's answered every record-setting performance from Jokic with a stellar showing of his own. This includes a 40-point outing that helped the Thunder to a dominant victory over Denver in their penultimate meeting this season.
Any serious late charge from Jokic would have to begin with him outclassing SGA in Oklahoma City tonight. Even then, his +450 odds at Caesars don't offer enough value to justify betting given the undeniable gap between the two in mid-March.
Prediction: Gilgeous-Alexander (-500 via DraftKings)
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