LeBron James Record-Breaker Prop Picks, Predictions: When will the King Become the All-Time Scoring Champ?

When will LeBron James become the NBA's all-time leading scorer? And how will he set the record?

Last Updated: October 6, 2022 7:05 AM EDT • 4 minute read

There are a variety of props available tied to LeBron James becoming the NBA's all-time leading scorer in 2022-23. Let's examine the top LeBron James record-breaker props.

James sits at 37,062 career points, just 1,325 behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s 38,387 for first place on the all-time scoring list. James has averaged 27.4 points per game during his career, including 30.3 in 2021-22. The 20-year veteran has failed to reach 1,325 points just once in a season, when he scored only 1,126 in 2020-21 across 45 games.

James is expected to become the NBA’s all-time leading scorer this campaign, and DraftKings Sportsbook is featuring a full range of “record breaker” props. Here are some of my favorite LeBron James record-breaker picks.

LeBron James Record-Breaker Prop Picks

LeBron James Record-Breaker Prop Predictions

James to break scoring record with 2-point field goal (-140)

It’s tempting to bet that James will break the record with a 3-pointer (+210) after he knocked down a career-best 2.9 shots from beyond the arc in 2021-22. James has hit two-plus threes per game in each of his last four seasons.

However, he's much more likely to break the record with a 2-pointer. James made 10.1 field goals per contest over that four-year span, including 7.7 2-pointers and 2.4 threes.

Here's why history is also on the side of the 2-point field goal:

LeBron passed Karl Malone on the all-time scoring list with a layup
He passed Michael Jordan with a layup
He passed Kobe Bryant with a layup
He hit the 20,000- and 30,000-point marks on 2-point jumpers

James’ recent milestones have all come on 2-point shots, and that’s what we’ll bank on with this wager.

Check out our 2022-23 Lakers picks and predictions

James to break the scoring record after Jan. 31, 2023 (-140)

Let’s do the math. James needs 1,326 points to claim first on the all-time scoring list. If he replicates his 30.3 points per game in 2021-22 (unlikely), James can pass Abdul-Jabbar in 44 contests, hitting the mark on Jan. 16 against the Houston Rockets.

That’s assuming he’s in contention for the scoring title and doesn’t miss any games at age 38, which is highly unlikely and the best-case scenario. He'll more likely regress back to his career average of 27.4 points per matchup. It would then take him 48 games to sit atop the scoring throne, doing it on Jan. 24 against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Finally, James could show he's human while averaging 25 points per contest. That would push his game total up to 53 to eclipse Kareem, doing it on Feb. 2 against the Indiana Pacers. His range to achieve this goal can reasonably be estimated at between 44 and 53 games, with 49 games smack dab in the middle (Jan. 25 against the San Antonio Spurs).

James has missed 53 of 154 possible games over the last two seasons. If that trend continues, we can expect him to play 54 games in 2022-23. We can confidently bet on James not breaking the record until after Jan. 31 while taking missed games into consideration, along with the likely number of contests played to break the record

James to break the scoring record on Feb. 23, 2023 vs. Warriors (+3000)

This is a monster milestone. If James becomes the all-time leading scorer, he’ll earn a pretty big feather in his cap for the GOAT argument, and he knows it.

Will James purposely miss time or hold back on his scoring to control when he breaks the record? That wouldn’t be a stretch.

If we’re looking purely at games played, let’s assume James needs 49 contests to break the record, and he misses only one-in-five games compared to the one-in-three the veteran has sat out over the last two seasons. That would put him at 60 games, and game No. 60 for the Lakers comes on Feb. 23, 2023 at home against Stephen Curry. He's the only player who’s rivaled LeBron as the face of the NBA for the last decade, and a guy James faced in the NBA Finals four straight seasons.

It would be quite poetic for the King to set this historic record in front of the home crowd while facing one of his biggest career rivals. And the odds are a phenomenal +3000. Sign me up!

Where to Bet on LeBron James Record-Breaker Props

LeBron James record-breaker prop picks made on 9/6/2022 at 9:08 a.m.

Written by:
Zachary Hanshew

Zak Hanshew has been covering the NFL and NBA since 2018, writing about fantasy sports, daily fantasy sports, and sports betting. He joined Sportsbook Review for the 2022-23 NBA season and looks forward to his third NBA campaign. Zak has had bylines for over half a dozen publications, most notably Yahoo and NBA.com. As a sports writer, Zak has been recognized for his attention to detail and insight into NBA betting trends. Zak is an avid NBA bettor who loves a prop bet, particularly a favorable combo prop. Of particular interest in the betting space are long shots such as first-basket scorer, but nothing beats a triple-double prop. He loves to target plus-money props with educated and well-researched analysis to back up his picks. Zak holds a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree from West Virginia University and roots avidly for his Mountaineers.