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Heat vs. Mavericks NBA Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Thursday

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: March 7, 2024 5:56 PM EST • 4 min 31 sec read.

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat reacts as we look at our best Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props.
Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat reacts against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images via AFP.

We analyze whether Luka Doncic can guide the Dallas Mavericks to a much-needed win or if the Miami Heat will nab a third straight victory as we make our Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.

Entering Thursday’s matchup, the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are on completely different trajectories. The Heat have won eight out of their last 10 games and are currently on a two-game win streak. On the other hand, the Mavericks have won five out of their last 10 games and are currently on a three-game losing streak.  

Miami currently holds the No. 6 having climbed out of the Play-In Tournament in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Dallas occupies the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference in a tightly bunched field, competing for the best spot possible in the postseason. With fewer than 20 games left on the schedule, the Mavericks must regain momentum at home on Thursday.  

Will they do it, or will the Heat extend their win streak? Can Luka Doncic sustain his ridiculous heater for at least one more contest, and will Miami’s primary scorers take advantage of a struggling Dallas defense?  

Here are our best Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props: Thursday

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Heat vs. Mavericks props

Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 points + rebounds (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Dallas’ defense has been vulnerable all season, but it’s been particularly poor over the last three games. On the season, Dallas allows the second most rebounds per game (54.2). The Mavs also allow the seventh most points (118.3), but they’ve surrendered the most over their last three at a whopping 131.7. That includes 54.7 points in the paint (fifth most), up from the 52.6 paint points surrendered on the season overall (ninth most).  

Adebayo has averaged 29.4 points + rebounds at home compared to 31.9 on the road, so he’s got an advantage playing in Dallas tonight. His points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 34.5 across our featured books, but we’re leaving assists out of the equation on Thursday. Since the All-Star break, Adebayo has averaged just 2.8 assists, down 50% from the 4.2 he averaged before the break. His odds on this prop are highly favorable at FanDuel, as they’re set at -115 or shorter across our other featured books.

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Luka Doncic triple-double (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Doncic has posted a triple-double in four straight contests, and we’re banking on him extending that streak. Over his last 14 games, Doncic has averaged a ridiculous 34.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 10.4 assists, with five triple-doubles under his belt. He’s come within one point or rebound of a triple-double in four more and within three points/rebounds in three. That means over his last 14, Doncic has either triple-doubled or come within three or fewer points/rebounds 12 times. 

Doncic is third in the NBA in triple-doubles this season with 14, and eight of those have come at home. Miami’s defense presents a challenge, so we’re not targeting Doncic’s PRAs prop, which is reasonably set at 53.5 across our featured books. Instead, we’ll bet on him reaching double digits in points, rebounds, and assists and paying off these plus-money odds. Considering his current heater, we’re thrilled to take this at +210 by using our bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS.

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 3-pointers (+118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Remember Dallas’ vulnerable defense mentioned above? It hasn’t been great against opposing 3-point shooters, either. The Mavs have allowed the ninth most 3-pointers this season (13.4), and over their last three games, they’re tied for the most allowed at 16.7. That includes 18 triples given up to the Indiana Pacers in their previous outing. 

Dallas allows the 14th-highest 3-point percentage on the season at 37.1%, but they’ve allowed the second-highest 3-point percentage at 42% over the last three. Tyler Herro remains out for this one, and Robinson has hit at least four triples in 11 of 22 matchups with Herro on the sidelines.

Over his last eight games overall, Robinson has averaged 3.5 triples and hit this mark in five of them. He’s expected to remain in the starting lineup, which is great for this prop. In 24 starts, Robinson has hit at least four threes 13 times and averaged 3.4 per game. The +118 odds over at FanDuel imply a probability of just 45.8%, but Robinson has hit the Over in 50% of his games without Herro, so we can feel great about taking it here.

Jimmy Butler Over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Is Butler gearing up for the annual appearance of “Playoff Jimmy?” It certainly looks that way, as Butler has averaged 37.9 PRAs across his last 12 contests and hit the Over in nine of them. He’s also been branching out, and we recently saw more of “Emo Jimmy.” Butler parlayed his infamous media day haircut into a starring role in Fall Out Boy’s latest music video. Since that video dropped, he’s averaged 28 points, 5.3 assists, and six rebounds in three contests and hit the Over in two straight.

In addition to the generous points and rebounds allowed, Dallas also allows the eighth most assists to opponents this season (28) and the most over their last three (31). We can get this prop at 34.5 for slightly shorter odds across our other featured books, but Butler has been on a roll as of late, and Dallas’ defense has been horrendous. We’ll take the extra PRA for longer odds without sweating.

Heat-Mavericks NBA player props made Thursday at 6:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.