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Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat features in our Celtics vs. Heat predictions.
Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat drives to the basket against Al Horford of the Boston Celtics during the 2022 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP.

The Boston Celtics have won two consecutive contests, and now the Miami Heat are hoping to end the Eastern Conference Finals at home during Saturday's Game 6. Read on for our Celtics-Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.

Well, this just got interesting.

After facing a 3-0 deficit, the Celtics have clawed back into the series with consecutive victories even amid the threat of the Taylor Swift curse after her show at Gillette Stadium. Now all the pressure is on the Heat, who desperately need to win Game 6 at home to avoid the Eastern Conference Finals being decided in Boston for Game 7.

No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs, but could we be on the verge of seeing history? The best sports betting apps seem to believe so, listing Boston as a road favorite ahead of Saturday's Game 6 in Miami.

Here is our best Celtics vs. Heat prediction (odds via our Caesars; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Heat prediction

Heat ML (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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This is where the Celtics' magical run comes to an end.

Bettors might be scared of betting on Miami to win outright after the last two games, but context is key. ShotQuality's post-game model actually graded Game 4 as a 110-107 win for the Heat based on shooting expectations, meaning the Celtics were probably a bit fortunate in their 116-99 victory. 

But that is the entire reason getting down 0-3 in the series is seemingly impossible to overcome. The Celtics simply have no margin of error, and one poor shooting night (or an above expectations performance from the Heat) could end this series. 

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The Celtics might be as equipped as anyone to make history, but there is a reason why the previous 149 teams have failed in this situation. In fact, only three of those teams have even forced a Game 7.

Miami doesn't want this series going back to Boston, which is why this will essentially be a Game 7 for head coach Erik Spoelstra and star guard Jimmy Butler. I don't mind the idea of betting on that tandem at a plus-money price with everything on the line.

Let's also keep in mind that Miami was a 1-point home favorite in Game 4 on Tuesday. The betting market believed the Celtics had given up, so I think we are getting some value based on their hot shooting effort the last time these two teams squared off in Kaseya Center.

Take advantage of the market's overcorrection. The Heat are still series favorites for a reason at our best NBA betting sites. They should finish the job on Saturday, punching their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win.

Zachary Hanshew's Celtics vs. Heat SGP picks offer some added value on Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Celtics vs. Heat best odds

Caesars, BetMGM (+135)

Heat MLHeat MLHeat MLHeat MLHeat ML

Our best sports betting sites have made Miami a home underdog, despite listing this team as a favorite in a similar spot ahead of Game 4.

The Heat still have a chance to finish the job, and we're betting they'll do just that. Consider playing Miami on the moneyline instead of taking the points at anything +115 or better.

Celtics vs. Heat odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Celtics vs. Heat odds analysis

The spread hasn't moved much at our best live betting sites, with the Celtics still mostly trading as 3-point road favorites ahead of Game 6. However, PointsBet and BetMGM sit at 3.5.

The total has dropped down to 210 or 209.5 after opening as high as 213.5 at the best sportsbooks.

Celtics vs. Heat game info

  • Date: Saturday, May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Celtics-Heat pick made 05/26/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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