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Celtics vs. Heat Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Miami Put Away Boston in Game 6?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: May 27, 2023 5:13 PM EDT • 3 min 2 sec read.

The Boston Celtics have won two consecutive contests, and now the Miami Heat are hoping to end the Eastern Conference Finals at home during Saturday's Game 6. Read on for our Celtics-Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.

Well, this just got interesting.

After facing a 3-0 deficit, the Celtics have clawed back into the series with consecutive victories even amid the threat of the Taylor Swift curse after her show at Gillette Stadium. Now all the pressure is on the Heat, who desperately need to win Game 6 at home to avoid the Eastern Conference Finals being decided in Boston for Game 7.

No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs, but could we be on the verge of seeing history? The best sports betting apps seem to believe so, listing Boston as a road favorite ahead of Saturday's Game 6 in Miami.

Here is our best Celtics vs. Heat prediction (odds via our Caesars; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Heat prediction

Heat ML (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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This is where the Celtics' magical run comes to an end.

Bettors might be scared of betting on Miami to win outright after the last two games, but context is key. ShotQuality's post-game model actually graded Game 4 as a 110-107 win for the Heat based on shooting expectations, meaning the Celtics were probably a bit fortunate in their 116-99 victory. 

But that is the entire reason getting down 0-3 in the series is seemingly impossible to overcome. The Celtics simply have no margin of error, and one poor shooting night (or an above expectations performance from the Heat) could end this series. 

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The Celtics might be as equipped as anyone to make history, but there is a reason why the previous 149 teams have failed in this situation. In fact, only three of those teams have even forced a Game 7.

Miami doesn't want this series going back to Boston, which is why this will essentially be a Game 7 for head coach Erik Spoelstra and star guard Jimmy Butler. I don't mind the idea of betting on that tandem at a plus-money price with everything on the line.

Let's also keep in mind that Miami was a 1-point home favorite in Game 4 on Tuesday. The betting market believed the Celtics had given up, so I think we are getting some value based on their hot shooting effort the last time these two teams squared off in Kaseya Center.

Take advantage of the market's overcorrection. The Heat are still series favorites for a reason at our best NBA betting sites. They should finish the job on Saturday, punching their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win.

Zachary Hanshew's Celtics vs. Heat SGP picks offer some added value on Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Celtics vs. Heat best odds

Caesars, BetMGM (+135)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Heat MLHeat MLHeat MLHeat MLHeat ML
+130+122+135+135+125

Our best sports betting sites have made Miami a home underdog, despite listing this team as a favorite in a similar spot ahead of Game 4.

The Heat still have a chance to finish the job, and we're betting they'll do just that. Consider playing Miami on the moneyline instead of taking the points at anything +115 or better.

Celtics vs. Heat odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Celtics vs. Heat odds analysis

The spread hasn't moved much at our best live betting sites, with the Celtics still mostly trading as 3-point road favorites ahead of Game 6. However, PointsBet and BetMGM sit at 3.5.

The total has dropped down to 210 or 209.5 after opening as high as 213.5 at the best sportsbooks.

Celtics vs. Heat game info

  • Date: Saturday, May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Celtics-Heat pick made 05/26/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.