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Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat are big movers in the NBA Finals 2024 odds.
Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat looks on against the Boston Celtics during the third quarter in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images/AFP.

The Miami Heat can punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a home victory in Game 6 after dropping two straight contests. Jimmy Butler is the man to get them there. Our Celtics-Heat SGP picks are based on the best NBA odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Miami Heat cruised in Game 3 to a blowout victory after two close contests to open the Eastern Conference Finals. The season appeared to be over for the Boston Celtics, but the squad won two consecutive games to force Game 6 on Saturday.

A win in Miami would give Boston a winner-take-all Game 7 at TD Garden, while a victory for the home team would send the Heat back to the NBA Finals for the second time since 2020. Will the Celtics become just the fourth club to force a Game 7 after going down 0-3? Or will Jimmy Butler send his team to the promised land?

Here are our Heat-Celtics SGP picks for Saturday (odds via best NBA betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Heat SGP picks

GamePropsCombined Odds
Celtics-HeatHeat ML, Jimmy Butler Over 28.5 points+265

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Celtics vs. Heat odds

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NBA SGP predictions: Celtics vs. Heat

Butler Over 28.5 points (-133 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Butler finished Game 5 with his lowest point total of the playoffs and just the veteran's third game with under 20 points during Miami’s postseason run. His 14 points came on an efficient 5-of-10 shooting, but the field-goal attempts were baffling. Butler averaged 20.8 field-goal attempts in 14 games prior to the Game 5 debacle, and the 10 shots were easily his fewest of the playoffs. He’ll surely make it a point to come out more aggressively in Game 6.

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The six-time All-Star needs to be more assertive after that performance, but he also should carry Miami’s offense. The Heat received major contributions from starters and role players alike in Games 1 through 3, with the likes of Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson stepping up, and Bam Adebayo chipping in solid numbers as well. Then three of Miami’s starters - Kevin Love, Max Strus, and Adebayo - combined for 39 total points in Games 4 and 5. That just won’t get it done. Vincent sat out Game 5 and is questionable on Saturday, meaning Butler will be needed to carry this offense.

Butler has averaged 28.8 points per game in the playoffs, going for 27.8 on the road and 30 at home. He stepped up with 42 and 56 points in Games 4 and 5, respectively, during the first-round series against Milwaukee. Butler wasn’t needed to score big in the second round against New York, and he came out hot with 35 points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Miami was lax over its last two games, but the urgency is back on the home team Saturday. Bet on Butler delivering a monster performance to punch his team’s ticket to the Finals.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.  

Heat ML (+122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Our Shane Jackson is backing Miami with his Celtics vs. Heat predictions for Game 6 and we're sticking with that theme. Though this is Game 6 of the series, the Heat are going to treat this one as a Game 7. Miami was crushed in Games 4 and 5 after rattling off three straight victories. A Celtics win on Saturday would send the series back to Boston, and the Heat won't benefit from any momentum.

The Heat seemed overmatched in Game 4 while being trounced 116-99. A poor second half was their ultimate demise while being outscored 38-23 in the third quarter. They were trounced again in Game 6 110-97, though this time a 15-point first-quarter deficit was their undoing.

But even after those stumbles, it's difficult to believe a Heat team that boasted a dominant point differential of plus-39 over the first three games of the series has just evaporated. The likely continued absence of Vincent stings, but Butler has shown repeatedly that he can carry a team during critical situations.

This parlay is primarily rooted in a bet on Butler being Miami's savior. And he can be yours too while cashing in at some appealing plus odds.

NBA prop picks made 5/27/2023 at 11:44 a.m. ET.

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