Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets for March 6: Expert Picks & Predictions Tonight

Tonight’s NBA slate features six matchups, headlined by some of the league’s most storied franchises. The Boston Celtics take on the Philadelphia 76ers, where we’ve highlighted a key player prop, while the night wraps up with a marquee battle between the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers.

Our best NBA player props tonight include picks from these high-profile showdowns, and we’ve taken a deeper look at the matchup between NBA championship odds contenders in our Knicks vs. Lakers prediction.

💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 6

Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

• Quentin Grimes player prop pick: Over 4.5 rebounds (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Cam Thomas player prop pick: Under 21.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Zion Williamson player prop pick: Under 24.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Mikal Bridges player prop pick: Over 2.5 rebounds (-118 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today

Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.

🏀 Quentin Grimes (76ers) Over 4.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.52)

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Grimes has given the otherwise putrid Philadelphia 76ers a massive boost since joining from the Dallas Mavericks ahead of the trade deadline. He's averaging 17.7 points, but more importantly for this bet, he's hauling in 5.3 rebounds per game. For tonight's game against the Celtics, he's expected to continue his strong work on the glass.

The guard is projected for six rebounds on Thursday, so we're getting a ton of value by betting on him to go Over 4.5. In fact, based on that projection, this prop should be trading at a total of 5.5, not 4.5. The break-even price on Over 4.5 is -213, and none of our best NBA betting sites would offer odds that short. Therefore, get in on this at any price you can find before this total jumps, because then you'll have a much more difficult time getting any value on the Over.

📊 Quentin Grimes player prop odds vs. Celtics

🏀 Cam Thomas (Nets) Under 21.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8.33)

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Thomas returned from an extended absence for the Brooklyn Nets two games ago and has scored 16 and 24 points in his last two games, respectively. Additionally, he's averaging 24.2 per game in 21 contests this season. So, why are we taking the Under? Well, Thomas is unlikely to play a ton of minutes tonight against the Golden State Warriors - he's projected for just 25.14 - and he hasn't shot the ball especially well since returning.

The Nets are in full tank mode with five straight losses and serve as 10.5-point underdogs tonight. They're unlikely to push Thomas too much in just his third game back, and his points projection is just 18.3 as a result. Based on that number, Thomas' points prop should be trading at 19.5. So we're getting an additional two points and very decent odds at DraftKings. You'll need to act quickly before this dips. If you're betting Under 20.5, I'd do so to around -125. If the total sits at 19.5, I would leave this alone at anything shorter than -105.

📊 Cam Thomas player prop odds vs. Warriors

🏀 Zion Williamson (Pelicans) Under 24.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $9.09)

Zion scored 37 points last time out, and he averaged 25.3 points in nine February games. However, there are a couple of reasons I like this Under tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are in tank mode, and Zion's minutes are likely to continue to hover around 27 per game. Additionally, this is a player who doesn't shoot threes and isn't especially efficient from the free-throw line, so he has to shoot the lights out from the floor any game in which he hopes to reach this lofty total in limited playing time.

Zion's points projections range wildly for tonight's game, but even the high mark is just 22.2. Based on that number, we're getting roughly 19% +EV on this bet. Based on the lower number of 18.5, our positive expected value skyrockets to more than 50%.

If you want to go right between those numbers at a projection of 20, the break-even point on Under 24.5 is -313. You can bet Zion to go Under even 23.5 points at any odds.

📊 Zion Williamson player prop odds vs. Rockets

🏀 Mikal Bridges (Knicks) Over 2.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $8.33)

Tonight's main event is the showdown between the Knicks and Warriors, and we're backing Bridges to tap into his days of rebounding before he joined New York. Bridges averaged more than four rebounds per game in four seasons before this one, but he's sitting at just 3.1 this year. However, I have Bridges projected for 3.8 boards tonight against the Lakers in what should be a tightly contested game.

The best thing about betting on Knicks Overs is you know the players will get the minutes to help you win. Bridges is projected for the fifth-most minutes of all players tonight, while teammates Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson are projected for the second-most and sixth-most, respectively. Therefore, we're just looking for Bridges to accumulate his way to three boards during a back and forth affair tonight. I'd play this Over to around -140 and leave it alone if it gets any shorter.

📊 Mikal Bridges player prop odds vs. Lakers

🏀 Best NBA betting sites

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