Despite a light slate of NBA games on the schedule, we've got you covered with our favorite NBA player props and best bets for Monday, based on the best NBA odds.
After finishing 1-1 with a +0.04 unit profit on Friday, we're back for another week of NBA best bets. If you followed along last week, you were able to witness one of the most shocking wins on a player prop I've ever seen, as Fred VanVleet banked a 3-pointer with 20 seconds left to help the Houston Rockets increase their all-important point differential.
We've got a light schedule on Monday with just five games on tap, with the NBA's final set of NBA In-Season Tournament group play games coming on Tuesday.
Monday's schedule brings a relief as most teams avoid the dreaded back-to-back game situation, which helps alleviate concerns about players enduring consecutive games and allows them a break before their next matchup.
With that said, why are we targeting a Portland Trail Blazers player on Monday night?
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Washington Wizards (+125) vs. Detroit Pistons (-150)
- Portland Trail Blazers (+575) vs. Indiana Pacers (-900)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+180) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-225)
- New Orleans Pelicans (-190) vs. Utah Jazz (+155)
- Denver Nuggets (+165) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-200)
Monday’s NBA best bets
- Malcolm Brogdon Under 7.5 assists vs. Pacers (-141 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ivica Zubac Over 0.5 assists vs. Nuggets (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Monday’s NBA player props
Malcolm Brogdon Under 7.5 assists vs. Pacers (-141 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you quickly look at Brogdon's stat line from Sunday's game against the Milwaukee Bucks, you'd definitely want to play the Over on this line when you see the number 12 under assists, but I have several reasons as to why I think the Under is the play on Monday.
The Portland Trail Blazers are on the second night of a back-to-back, after almost upsetting the Milwaukee Bucks on the road on Sunday. They are taking on the Indiana Pacers and are 13-point underdogs.
Brogdon isn't a player the Trail Blazers are looking to keep long-term; this is an asset they are looking to protect and move at the trade deadline. Brogdon just returned from a hamstring injury and played 34 minutes on Sunday against the Bucks. When you think about Monday's game, which has the potential to be a blowout, Brogdon returning from injury, and the second night of a back-to-back, there are a ton of reasons pointing to decreased minutes for Brogdon.
Another main reason I like the Under here is that not only is Brogdon back from injury, but so is Scoot Henderson. If I were Chauncey Billups and I wanted to boost the confidence of my young point guard, I would make sure he sees extended minutes against this Pacers defense. This should be a game where Henderson's skill set can thrive, and that's just another reason why we could see less of Brogdon on Monday.
Brogdon is projected to have 6.6 assists on Monday, which allows us to price the Under 7.5 assists at -190, but it is available at BetRivers at -141. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 22%.
Ivica Zubac Over 0.5 assists vs. Nuggets (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you've never bet on an Over 0.5 assists prop before, get ready for quite the experience. This bet will keep you on the edge of your seat throughout the game, especially whenever Zubac touches the ball.
For Zubac, the Clippers will need to utilize his size against Nikola Jokic, so his normal allotment of minutes should be there, if not more. Many teams like to make Jokic work in the pick-and-roll on defense, and with James Harden now running the point, we could see Zubac involved quite a bit as the screener.
This should lead to increased touches for Zubac, as we saw in the Clippers' last game against the Nuggets just a couple of weeks ago. Zubac made 36 passes against the Nuggets in that matchup, while he averages 28.5 per game on the season.
Zubac is projected to have 0.9 assists on Monday against the Nuggets, allowing us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -133, but it is available at BetMGM at -105. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 11%.
NBA best bets made 11/27/2023 at 7:30 a.m. ET
NBA betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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