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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

We're looking at our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Friday, based on the best NBA odds.

There were no games on Thursday as the NBA was off for Thanksgiving, but our Wednesday edition of the NBA best bets was another profitable one as we went 2-1 and finished the night plus-0.68 units. We came very close to achieving a sweep; however, De'Aaron Fox finished with five assists, falling just short of the six needed for a green checkmark.

The NBA In-Season Tournament picks up again on Friday, and a handful of teams will be looking to join the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers in the quarterfinals.

We have a massive contest in Group C of the Western Conference as the Minnesota Timberwolves play host to the Sacramento Kings at Target Center, and both teams are 2-0 in the group.

Friday's games carry immense importance for teams looking to either secure advancement or strengthen their point differentials, which heavily impacts the handicapping of these matchups. The pursuit of progress heightens the intensity of competition, with some teams aiming to widen their point margins. These dynamics play a pivotal role in evaluating game outcomes and making predictions, as the desire for advancement and strategic point differentials significantly shape the stakes and strategies at play.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Friday’s NBA best bets

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Friday’s NBA player props

Fred VanVleet Over 16.5 points vs. Nuggets (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The reigning NBA Champions, the Denver Nuggets, are in desperate need of a win on Friday against the Houston Rockets to have any hope of advancing to the quarterfinals. However, they aren't the only team with something to play for here. The Rockets are also very much alive in the race to win the group, and with the Rockets off until Tuesday, Ime Udoka will have no problem playing VanVleet for 40-plus minutes on Friday.

When the Rockets faced the Nuggets a couple of weeks ago, Udoka made it clear that he intended to make Nikola Jokic work on the defensive end. Regardless of whom Jokic was guarding, that player would be the screener in a pick-and-roll with VanVleet. With Jokic playing deep in drop coverage, if Reggie Jackson couldn't get over the screen, VanVleet was left with several wide-open mid-range jump shots.

Considering the expected minutes for VanVleet, a slight increase in field-goal attempts due to the opponent, and a lower-than-normal total for VanVleet's points (down to 16.5 from 18.5), it makes sense to attack the Over.

VanVleet is projected to score 18.4 points on Friday against the Nuggets, showing how the adjusted total from 18.5 to 16.5 plays a significant factor in this bet. Based on this projection, we can price VanVleet at -145 to go Over the total.

The adjusted total plays a big part in making this bet, but so does the outlier price at FanDuel, which is offering the Over at -104. DraftKings is trading the Over at -120, so the FanDuel price significantly increases our edge here.

FanDuel

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Andrew Wiggins Over 13.5 points vs. Spurs (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's no way to sugarcoat this bet; Wiggins has been awful this season. But for the right price, I will bet on just about any player, and 13.5 points with the Over trading at +100 against the San Antonio Spurs is the right price for me to hit the button.

Why on Friday against the Spurs? The Spurs' defense at the point of attack isn't good, and though it can find ways to neutralize one primary ball-handler, it's very difficult to take away two. That's where James Harden hurt the Spurs this week because he was able to get to whatever spots he wanted on the court since the defense was focused on Kawhi Leonard or Paul George.

If the Spurs opt to take away Stephen Curry, then you will have Chris Paul attacking all the gaps, and Paul should have an easy time setting up wide-open shots for his teammates, such as Wiggins.

Against the Spurs, you want to leave as much shooting in the game as possible because it limits Victor Wembanyama's ability to play help defense in the lane. This should make Wiggins' minutes pretty secure on Friday because they can use his size on defense but also maintain the spacing on offense needed against the Spurs.

Wiggins is projected to score 15.1 points on Friday, allowing us to price the Over 13.5 points at -135, but it is available at DraftKings at +100. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 12%.

DraftKings

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NBA best bets made 11/24/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

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