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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Wednesday, based on the best NBA odds.

Our NBA Best Bets continued their winning streak with another 2-0 night, courtesy of our NBA player prop picks for Jalen Suggs and Keyonte George. The two green checkmarks secured a 2.05-unit victory, and we aim for our third consecutive sweep on Wednesday.

The schedule features 14 games, with 10 teams playing on the tail end of a back-to-back, creating a loaded slate. The NBA will take Thursday off in observance of Thanksgiving, providing a break before the NBA In-Season Tournament resumes on Friday.

With a jam-packed schedule and many player props to consider, we have our eye on a particular Houston Rockets player.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Wednesday’s NBA best bets

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Wednesday’s NBA player props

Dillon Brooks Over 10.5 points vs. Grizzlies (-111 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Brooks publicly called out the Memphis Grizzlies for using him as a scapegoat in last season's playoffs and mentioned that the Grizzlies have no swagger with him no longer on the team. On Wednesday, Brooks will have the ultimate revenge spot on his mind as he takes on the Grizzlies, and the betting numbers are also showing an edge.

Usually, when you see a very public feud or bad blood between a player and a team, sportsbooks leverage this and adjust the player props accordingly. With Brooks, not only does this line not have a Grizzlies tax on it, but this is an Over bet you'd want to place on Brooks' points prop even if he were playing against the Charlotte Hornets on a Monday in December.

I cannot stress enough that this is a bet you'll want to place before you have breakfast and your cup of coffee because it is going to see significant movement.

The revenge angle for Brooks is cool and all, but the most important part about the bet is that you have a probability gap in the odds, and at 10.5 (-111), you certainly do. Head to Caesars and grab this -111 for the Over 10.5 points via our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000, before it's too late.

Brooks is projected to score 12.6 points on Wednesday, which means we can price the Over 10.5 points at -162. I'll also give you the price for 11.5 points based on this projection because that is where this prop is headed. With that same projection, we can price the Over 11.5 points at -122.

The revenge angle with Brooks is a fun added bonus here, but if you get to this prop too late and the juice is shorter than -122 for Over 11.5 points, I'd advise you to pass on this bet.

Caesars

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James Harden Over 7.5 assists vs. Spurs (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Harden just faced the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, and you could have bet on his Over 7.5 assists at +105 and cashed the ticket as Harden dropped 10 dimes against the Spurs. We will have to take on a little more juice this Wednesday, but given how the Clippers have reworked their rotations, this is still an excellent price for Harden's assists prop against the Spurs.

I often highlight when a player is struggling, their total drops, and we take advantage of a lower total. This is the opposite scenario with Harden, as his total is climbing, but it's not adjusting to how well he has begun to play with the Clippers fast enough.

There are two things to consider with Harden from a basketball perspective against the Spurs. For one, the Spurs don't have the personnel to disrupt Harden at the point of attack from getting to wherever he wants to be on the floor. You can see that in their matchup on Monday when he had 18 potential assists in only 28 minutes.

The reason I think this total isn't climbing fast enough is because we just saw Russell Westbrook move to the bench, and the Clippers have begun running Westbrook more with Paul George and Harden more with Kawhi Leonard. This makes a ton of sense, as they don't need all four players on the floor at the same time, and it also means Harden is always on the ball now in the minutes he plays. It'll take some time for this new substitution pattern by the Clippers to be felt in his total.

Harden is projected to have 8.8 assists on Wednesday, which means we can price the Over 7.5 assists at -176, but we can bet on it at FanDuel at -128. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 14%.

FanDuel

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De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists vs. Pelicans (-133 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm going to get right to the point here with why I placed this bet on Fox because it really is pretty simple. Fox played the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday and had zero assists, and I think you're seeing his assist total come back with an incorrect price in the rematch because of it.

I haven't seen an assist total of 5.5 for Fox all season, as he usually trades with a total of 6.5 assists. Sometimes you just have to take a really good price on an elite player when you see it, and that is what I am doing with Fox.

The Kings did get blown out in the game on Monday when Fox had zero assists. So one would assume they come back on Wednesday with a different offensive strategy, and it will probably start with getting Dyson Daniels off of Fox, which would free him up to create more offense. If the Kings had won and Fox had zero assists, I would be more concerned, but the Kings aren't attempting to replicate a strategy that didn't work on Monday.

Fox is projected to have 6.6 assists on Wednesday, so you can see how the move down from 6.5 to 5.5 on the total plays a major factor in this bet. Based on this projection, we can price Fox at -168 to go Over the total of 5.5 assists.

Caesars

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NBA best bets made 11/22/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

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