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NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Saturday

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: March 23, 2024 4:55 PM EDT • 4 min 13 sec read.

Jusuf Nurkic of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball during the first half of the NBA game at Footprint Center as we look at our NBA best bets.
Jusuf Nurkic of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball during the first half of the NBA game at Footprint Center. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP.

Saturday's loaded NBA slate could see major opportunities for players stepping up in light of injury, and our NBA player props and best bets for Saturday are based on the best NBA odds.

With most of the betting world focused on the second round of March Madness, we’re opening the weekend with four NBA player props for the Association’s eight-game slate on Saturday.

De’Andre Hunter and the shorthanded Atlanta Hawks look for a win against the Charlotte Hornets’ generous defense. Jusuf Nurkic will try to keep up his strong play on the glass when the Phoenix Suns face the San Antonio Spurs. And Can Kyle Kuzma stay hot as the Washington Wizards host the Toronto Raptors?

We’ll then cap off the night with a double-double prop for promising rookie Amen Thompson when his Houston Rockets face the Utah Jazz. 

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Saturday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s NBA best bets

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Saturday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Saturday’s NBA player props

De’Andre Hunter Over 19.5 points vs. Hornets (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

De'Andre Hunter has been averaging 17.6 points and 2.3 triples across his last 16 games, hitting the Over on this prop eight times. He’s averaged 16.1 points at home compared to 15.2 on the road. Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey, and AJ Griffin are out, and Onyeka Okongwu is doubtful, leaving plenty of minutes and shooting opportunities available for Hunter at forward.

The Hornets have allowed the 12th-most points and 10th-most 3-pointers in 2023-24, and Hunter scored 21 against them back on Feb. 14. The implied probability of these odds is 53.5%, but Hunter has hit the Over in half of his last 16 games and gets a highly favorable matchup. We’re comfortable taking the Over while looking for a profit of $8.70 on a $10 wager.

Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds vs. Spurs (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nurkic ranks seventh in the Association in rebounds at 11 per game. He pulled down 10.2 before the All-Star break and has been averaging 14.1 boards since. Only Domantas Sabonis and Rudy Gobert have recorded more during that span. Nurk has hit the Over in eight of his last 13 games, or 61.5%, which makes the -104 odds here quite a value with a 50.9% implied probability.

Nurk has been better as a rebounder at home than on the road, but he’s hit the Over in three of his last five outside of the Footprint Center. The Spurs allow the fourth-most rebounds to opponents, so we’re taking the Over while backing one of the league’s most effective rebounders.

Kyle Kuzma Over 37.5 points + rebound + assists vs. Raptors (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Raptors are in a bad way right now with multiple key injuries. Toronto has allowed the sixth-most points and the fourth-most rebounds since the All-Star break. Kuzma has been great since the break, averaging 36.2 points + rebounds + assists, compared to just 32.3 prior to the break. Kuz has hit the Over on this prop in seven of his last 14 outings, and he did so in one of two against the Raptors during 2023-24. 

Washington will get Marvin Bagley III back after an extended absence. But he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction, which means Kuz should still be active on the glass. Jordan Poole is questionable, and Tyus Jones is out, which means Kuz could take on more responsibilities as a facilitator.

The odds for this wager lead to an implied probability of 51.2%, which is right in line with Kuz’s recent production.

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Amen Thompson double-double vs. Jazz (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The rookie has started during four of Houston’s last five games, and he’s been stellar over his last four. Amen Thompson has averaged 19.5 points and 9.3 boards during that span while securing a double-double twice. He's averaged 14.5 points and 10.3 rebounds with six doubles over 11 starts.

Thompson has been in and out of the starting lineup, but he’s racked up eight double-doubles over 15 games with at least 25 minutes. With Alperen Sengun likely done for the season, Thompson should remain with the starters and get substantial minutes on Saturday.

He produced six points and eight boards over 18 minutes against Utah earlier in the season, teasing a double-double in limited minutes. The Jazz have allowed the 10th-most points in the paint this season, and John Collins is still banged up. At 14 rebounds per 100 possessions, Thompson ranks third among rookies behind only Victor Wembanyama and Trayce Jackson-Davis.

The implied probability of the +190 odds is just 34.5%, but Thompson has cashed this in 61.5% of games with 25 minutes. A $10 wager wins $19, making this a profitable endeavor for a rookie who’s on a roll. 

NBA best bets made 03/23/2024 at 6:50 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.