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NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: March 14, 2024 4:49 PM EDT • 4 min 58 sec read.

Jusuf Nurkic #20 of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball as we look at our NBA best bets and player props for Thursday
Jusuf Nurkic #20 of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball during the first half of the NBA game at Footprint Center. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

Thursday’s six-game NBA slate is heavy on value for big men on the glass, as we make our NBA player props and best bets based on the best NBA odds.

After a loaded slate to begin the week, Thursday's NBA schedule delivers just six games  on the docket. That doesn't mean there isn't value across the board - especially among big men.

The Phoenix Suns, led by Jusuf Nurkic, are set to visit the Boston Celtics, with the center's rebound line considered slightly excessive. Meanwhile, Jabari Smith and the Houston Rockets will host the Washington Wizards, with Smith likely to start at center in place of the injured Alperen Sengun.

Later, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Philadelphia 76ers, and we're eyeing the Under for a Greek Freak combo prop. Lastly, Chet Holmgren and the Oklahoma City Thunder will face off against a depleted Dallas Mavericks squad to conclude the night.

To accompany our Suns vs. Celtics NBA player props, here are our NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s NBA best bets

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Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Thursday’s NBA player props

Jusuf Nurkic Under 10.5 rebounds vs. Celtics (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Nurkic is averaging the second-most boards of his career this season at 10.8 per contest, but we’re taking the Under on his rebounds prop and taking it a step further. Nurk’s rebound line is set at 11.5, but the juice is unappealing with odds of -120 to -135, depending on which of our best sportsbooks you're shopping at. Instead, we’ll turn to DraftKings, which offers an alt line of 10.5 for even money.

Nurkic has averaged 11.6 boards at home compared to 9.7 on the road this season. He’s pulled down at least 11 boards in 29 of 61 games, and only 12 of those have come on the road. The Celtics allow the 12th-fewest rebounds to opponents (50.9) on the season, but Boston has allowed just 47 per tilt across their last three, tied for seventh-fewest in that span.

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Jabari Smith Over 27.5 points + rebounds vs. Wizards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Smith has hit the Over on this prop in just 13 games this season, but we’re confident he can get there on Thursday in a favorable matchup with additional opportunities. After hitting this in three straight, Smith has gone Under in seven consecutive games, but he’s averaged 22.5 points + rebounds across his last four.

Alperen Sengun is out, and Smith started at center in his place in the Rockets’ last game out. He racked up 24 points + rebounds, but that contest was played on the road. Smith averages 22.9 points + rebounds at home compared to 20.9 on the road, and a return to Houston will do wonders for his odds of hitting the Over. Washington easily allows the most points and rebounds to opponents this season, putting Smith in a position to cash this prop. The implied probability of -110 odds is 52.3%, and given how often Smith has hit the Under, it would be nice to get longer odds here. This one has gotten a little more juice thanks to the phenomenal matchup and Sengun's absense, so we’re ok to roll with it.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 51.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. 76ers (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Few players in the NBA have stat lines in the ballpark of 50+ points + rebounds + assists, let alone do it regularly. Giannis is one of those players, but this is a lofty line to hit for even the most talented NBA stars. Taking the Under is such a drag, but we’ve got to strike when value presents itself.

The Greek Freak averages 48.4 PRAs on the season, but his splits are 50.3 on the road compared to just 46.5 at home. He’s hit the Over on this line in just two of his last 12 and four of his last 15 at home. The Bucks are 8.5-point favorites against the shorthanded 76ers, which means Giannis’ playing time could be reduced late in the game. Take the Under here, which offers an implied probability of 53.4%. Giannis has hit the Over in just 20 of 63 games this season, or 31.7%. We’re getting a bargain for odds that should be closer to -225 by shopping at bet365.

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Chet Holmgren double-double vs. Mavericks (+135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Holmgren is fresh off a 15/13 double-double against the Pacers in his last game out, and he’ll look to accomplish that feat for a second straight game. The rookie has posted a double-double in two of his last four, and he’s recorded 19 on the season. That includes 10 double-doubles at home. 

Dallas has allowed the second-most rebounds to opponents and the eighth-most this season. Holmgren posted a double-double in his two matchups with Dallas this season, and both were on the road. He’s in an even better position on Thursday at home, so we’ll take the profitable, plus-money odds. Based on the odds, the implied probability of this prop hitting is 42.5%, but Holmgren has hit this in 50% of his last four games and both of his matchups with the Mavs. We’re getting great value here.

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NBA best bets made Thursday at 9:15 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.