🏀 76ers vs. Nuggets Player Props Tonight: Odds, Picks & Nikola Jokic Best Bet
📡 SBR Intel: 76ers vs. Nuggets Player Props Tonight
I open my 76ers vs. Nuggets player props tonight with Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points (-114). The 76ers' defense is underrated and ranks third in defensive efficiency over the last three games. Then, I wrap up my NBA best bets with Quentin Grimes Over 19.5 points (-125). Until Joel Embiid returns, the 76ers are Grimes' team, as he's attempted a total of 44 field goals over his last two games.
🏀 Best 76ers vs. Nuggets player props tonight: NBA picks for March 17
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points | -114 via Caesars | 1.71u -> 1.5u | 76ers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency in last 3 |
| Quentin Grimes Over 19.5 points | -125 via BetMGM | 1.25u -> 1u | Has attempted 22 field goals in 2 straight games |
Total wagered: 2.96 units | Max profit: 2 units
💰 Best 76ers vs. Nuggets prop bet
The Nuggets have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points (-114)
I've been impressed with the 76ers' defense recently. Philadelphia is ranked third in defensive efficiency over its last three games and should be able to contain Jokic, at least from a scoring standpoint.
The 76ers have allowed 103 or fewer points in each of their last two games, while Jokic is attempting just 17.5 field goals per game in March - down from 18.7 in February. If the 76ers can hold the Nuggets to 113 or fewer points, this bet will likely cash. I would also play Jokic Under 26.5 points at -105 on the best sports betting sites.
🔥 More 76ers vs. Nuggets prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Quentin Grimes Over 19.5 points (-125)
I'm betting on Grimes after back-to-back big games. With so many injuries on Philadelphia, the first thought was that VJ Edgecombe would be the No. 1 option, but Grimes has attempted a team-high 22 field goals in each of the last two games.
He played 34 minutes against the Nets on Saturday, and coach Nick Nurse increased his playing time to 40 minutes against the Trail Blazers on Sunday. Grimes should be the No. 1 option again tonight. BetMGM lists Grimes Over 19.5 points at -125, but this bet is good up to -150 on the best NBA betting sites.
💸 More NBA expert picks for March 17
I feature James Harden and LaMelo Ball in my NBA player props tonight.
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-57-3 | +2.89 units ✅ | 2% ✅ |
| Player props | 59-48-3 | +3.04 units ✅ | 2.2% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units ✅ | 87% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-9 | -1.65 units ❌ | -54.89% ❌ |
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | Over 3.5 first-quarter points | +100 |
| Naz Reid | Timberwolves | Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists | -155 |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | Over 26.5 points + rebounds | -110 |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | Over 7.5 rebounds + assists | -165 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists | -115 |
Since Devin Vassell is out tonight, Naz Reid Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-155) was the most-bet player prop at BetMGM. I'm not sure why this bet was so popular - maybe it was given out by a popular tout?
Since then, Reid's P/R/A line has dropped to 22.5 (Over: -125 | Under: -105). I believe the value's gone now on this Under, and I would bet the Over at 22.5 if I had to play it, since Anthony Edwards is out with a knee injury.
💡 How I'm betting 76ers vs. Nuggets
I'm allocating 2.96 units for this game, which is slightly more than I would usually bet on two player props. While I'm confident in both plays, I believe Jokic's points prop is too high, and the market is underestimating the 76ers' defense.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game tonight, as the 76ers have allowed a total of just 200 points over their last two games. The Nuggets should also be able to limit the 76ers' scoring, since Philadelphia offensively isn't as strong as the Lakers or Spurs (Denver's last two opponents).
🚑 76ers vs. Nuggets injuries
📺 How to watch 76ers vs. Nuggets
- Date: Tuesday, March 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena (Denver)
- TV: NBC/Peacock
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