NASCAR Betting Odds at Talladega Today: YellaWood 500 Predictions, Expert Picks & Long Shots
The NASCAR playoffs return to one of the sport's most famous tracks today at 2 p.m. ET on NBC. We're examining the latest NASCAR betting odds at Talladega Superspeedway and offering our best 2024 YellaWood 500 predictions, expert picks, and long shots.
- Ryan Blaney is among the consensus favorites across our best sportsbooks while leading our NASCAR predictions at Talladega
- Michael McDowell took the pole for today's race and nearly won the spring event at Talladega before crashing on the last lap
- We have our eyes on Ford and Team Penske winning another superspeedway race as part of our best NASCAR prop bets
After cashing on Ross Chastain as a +3700 long shot last week in our NASCAR predictions at Kansas, here's a look at our race preview today for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega:
NASCAR odds at Talladega Superspeedway
Talladega raceday odds from our best sports betting sites; last updated Oct. 6
Driver | BetMGM | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
---|---|---|---|
Ryan Blaney | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
Joey Logano | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
Brad Keselowski | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
Kyle Busch | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
William Byron | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
Denny Hamlin | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
Chase Elliott | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
Austin Cindric | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
Michael McDowell | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
Kyle Larson | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
Tyler Reddick | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
2024 YellaWood 500 predictions, expert picks
NASCAR picks made Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Ford to win (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Team Penske to win (+400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Ryan Blaney to win (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
How to bet NASCAR today at Talladega
While Talladega Superspeedway is famous for its Hollywood depiction, the track itself is a fan favorite among the NASCAR faithful because of its high speeds and dramatic wrecks.
The 2.66-mile circuit is the longest oval track in the Cup Series and regularly produces thrilling finishes with unpredictable results. We saw that in the spring race here, when McDowell appeared certain to win before causing a massive pileup across the start-finish line.
That's why nobody is dealing at better than +1000 consensus odds to take today's race, which tends to be the case for any superspeedway. And, like those other races at these chaotic tracks, one manufacturer stands above the rest.
Can Ford atone for Talladega spring race?
It sure looked like Ford had secured another Talladega win in April, when McDowell led 36 laps and the checkered flag was in his sights before that late crash.
McDowell is among the favorites to avenge that loss in today's race, as he'll start from the pole position for the fifth straight superspeedway race. He's one of five drivers in the top six of the starting grid for Ford, which has won this race in seven of the last 10 years.
That group includes the consensus favorites in Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. They've all earned their reputation as prolific superspeedway drivers, especially at this beloved track.
Nobody has been better here in the Next Gen car than Blaney, who paces the field in average finish (7.2) and laps led (110) after winning last year's YellaWood 500 for his third top-two finish in the veteran's last four races at Talladega.
Blaney has won three times at this track over the years for Team Penske. He's dealing as short as +750 via DraftKings, though you can bet him at +1100 odds via FanDuel for a $110 profit on a $10 bet.
Those three wins match teammate Joey Logano, who has led 70 laps in his last two races here and won Stage 2 in the spring race before falling back late. He also won the last superspeedway race at Atlanta a few weeks ago.
That's to say nothing of Keselowski, who finished second in the spring race and racked up more wins here (six) than any active driver.
My money is on one of those three to win today's race, which is why I love the +130 value on Ford to win at BetMGM. That prop is dealing as short as +100 elsewhere. Those latter odds imply a 50% hit rate, while the former pays $13 for every $10 wagered.
I'm also backing Team Penske, which has won this race six times in the last 10 years (60%) despite its best odds of +400 implying a 20% chance of winning today.
Will we see overtime?
If you've been following our NASCAR previews over the last few weeks, you're surely familiar with one of my favorite prop bets ahead of each race.
Over at Caesars, which typically posts the best NASCAR prop bets, you can bet on an overtime finish. That happens anytime there's a caution within the final five or so laps, and a $10 bet will return $19 in profit.
We haven't seen that happen in the last two races. But eight of the previous 11 races before that featured overtime, including two straight superspeedway events.
These aren't the best odds we've seen recently on this prop bet, but there's a reason it's priced shorter than usual. Talladega is famous for massive wrecks just before the start-finish line. If that happens shortly before the last lap, we profit.
This isn't a wager to go crazy on with your stake, but it's an entertaining way to bet on chaos with some legitimate value at these plus-money odds.
NASCAR long shots today at Talladega
There's no better time to bet on long shots than ahead of a superspeedway race. Here are a few of our favorites.
Michael McDowell (+1800)
McDowell was a more significant long shot before winning his sixth pole of the season. But he's still worth a small wager at these odds, which turn $10 into a $180 profit if he wins.
The No. 34 nearly took the checkered flag at this track in April, and he produced two top-three finishes at Talladega in six previous races entering this year. He clearly boasts the speed at Talladega and should be in the mix.
Alex Bowman (+2800)
Can Alex Bowman keep his title hopes alive? He's one of the 12 playoff drivers still in contention and would advance to the Round of 8 with a win today.
Bowman has been one of the hottest drivers in the Cup Series while logging three top-10 finishes in his last four races, including a fifth-place result at Atlanta. He also finished fifth in the spring race at Talladega, where his average finish (13.8) ranks fifth in the Next Gen era.
Todd Gilliland (+3500)
McDowell captured attention while winning the pole, and his Front Row Motorsports teammate sits third in the starting grid and has been better at this track over the years.
Gilliland quietly boasts the fourth-best average finish (12.8) in the Next Gen era at Talladega after finishing in the top 12 during each of his last four races here. I like putting the FRM duo on my bet slip for today's race, especially at such long odds.
Best NASCAR long shots at Talladega
- Michael McDowell (+1800 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Alex Bowman (+2800 via FanDuel) ⭐
- Todd Gilliland (+3500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
Best NASCAR prop bets at Talladega
- Over 3.5 Fords in top 10 (-150 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Race to go to overtime (+190 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Alex Bowman top Chevrolet (+1000 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
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YellaWood 500 past winners
Year | Driver | Team |
---|---|---|
2023 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske |
2022 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
2021 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing |
2020 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing |
2019 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske |
2018 | Aric Almirola | Stewart-Haas Racing |
2017 | Brad Keselowski | Team Penske |
2016 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
2015 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
2014 | Brad Keselowski | Team Penske |
How to watch NASCAR at Talladega: YellaWood 500
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 6 at 2 p.m. ET
- Track: Talladega Superspeedway (Talladega, Ala.)
- Length: 2.66 miles (188 laps, 500 total miles)
- How to watch: NBC
- Defending winner: Ryan Blaney
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