NASCAR Betting Odds at Kansas: Predictions, Expert Picks & Long Shots for Hollywood Casino 400
The NASCAR playoffs open the Round of 12 today at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network as we examine the latest NASCAR odds at Kansas Speedway and offer our best 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 predictions, expert picks, and long shots.
- Kyle Larson is the consensus favorite to win today's race across our best sportsbooks and leads our NASCAR predictions at Kansas
- Larson previously won the spring race at Kansas, beating Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds in the closest finish in NASCAR history
- Christopher Bell won the pole as the top driver for Toyota, which is featured prominently in our best NASCAR prop bets
NASCAR odds at Kansas Speedway
Kansas raceday odds from our best sports betting sites; last updated Sept. 29
| Driver | BetMGM | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +325 | 23.53% | $32.50 |
| William Byron | +525 | 16.00% | $52.50 |
| Denny Hamlin | +625 | 13.79% | $62.50 |
| Christopher Bell | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Tyler Reddick | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Chase Elliott | +900 | 10.00% | $90 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Alex Bowman | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
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2024 Hollywood Casino 400 predictions, expert picks
NASCAR picks made Sunday at 7 a.m. ET; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Toyota to win (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Larson to win (+400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
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How to bet NASCAR today at Kansas
Since this track was repaved in 2012, Kansas Speedway has played host to some of the most entertaining races in NASCAR in recent years.
That includes the thrilling spring race back in May, when Larson edged out Buescher by a nose (if that) to continue his dominance at 1.5-mile tracks.
With high banking corners and multiple grooves along the track, Kansas should allow for more passing than we saw last week at Bristol. That could open the door for a dark-horse winner ... if they can contend with the consensus favorite.
No place like Kansas for Larson
It's not often that I recommend betting on Larson, whose weekly prices are often too short for my liking. This is one of those exceptions.
Larson has been absolutely dominant at 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen era, winning four times in 11 races with a ridiculous seven top fives. The only four times he's missed out on the top four came with a DNF or when his wheel literally came off at Texas.
If he can avoid incident, Larson will be near the front at "cookie-cutter" intermediate tracks like Kansas, where he led 64 races in May. He's led a combined 1,097 laps in those 11 races, averaging nearly 100 laps led at those 1.5-milers in the Next Gen car.
This year, he's run in the top three for nearly 75% of laps at Kansas, Las Vegas, and Darlington - three tracks that all share a similar profile.
Larson is priced as high as +400 at Caesars to win today's race, which implies just a 20% probability of him doing so. He's also dealing as high as +110 via bet365 to finish in the top three, which might be my favorite bet of this entire race.
Larson's DNF rate at intermediate tracks is roughly 10 percentage points higher than the average, so I'd still diversify my bet slip with a few cheaper options. But I wouldn't want to go into today's race without some stake in Larson.
Can Toyota stay hot at Kansas?
Larson's spring win at this track marked the first time in five races that Toyota didn't reach victory lane at Kansas Speedway.
Three of those four wins belonged to 23XI Racing, including back-to-back wins in the Hollywood Casino 400 by Tyler Reddick (+800) and Bubba Wallace (+3000).
The other went to Denny Hamlin (+625), who is the all-time wins leader at Kansas (four) with an average finish of 2.8 in five races in the Next Gen car.
Christopher Bell (+700) won the pole on Saturday, his third straight at Kansas. He finished sixth in the spring race and has posted four top fives over his last five races.
Hamlin, Reddick, and Bell are three of the top five favorites across our best sports betting apps. That's quite a bit of firepower for a manufacturer that has punched well above its weight class at Kansas.
In five Next Gen races at Kansas, Toyota has fielded fewer than half the cars of Chevrolet or Ford but still owns four of five race wins. It's also run more combined laps in the top five than either of those bigger manufacturers.
Reddick has posted more fastest laps (141) than anyone else, including Larson (129), while Hamlin and Bell are both tough to count out. That's why I love betting on that group as a whole with a wager on Toyota to complement my other bet on Larson.
Overtime looms as possibility
I'd be remiss if I didn't bring up my new favorite prop bet in NASCAR.
Caesars has been offering a bet each week on whether the race will go to overtime, which happens any time there's a caution within the final five or so laps.
We've seen that happen in eight of the last 12 races and six of the last eight, including two of the three races in the Round of 16.
Even so, this prop is always offered at plus-money odds, and this week it's dealing at +350. Those odds imply a 22.22% chance of overtime with a $10 bet returning $35 in profit if it happens again.
I wouldn't call it "likely" that we'll see a late caution today, but I sure do like those odds.
NASCAR long shots today at Kansas
This race tends to favor experienced drivers with a strong track record at intermediate ovals. Still, keep an eye out for these long shots at FanDuel:
Alex Bowman (+1700)
It's hard to call Bowman too much of a long shot when he's dealing as short as +1100 entering raceday, though these longer odds from FanDuel are compelling.
He's quietly put together a nice playoff run with two top 10s in his last three races and two top-five runs in qualifying - accumulating more points (120) than any other driver in the first round.
He finished seventh in the Kansas spring race and stands to benefit from Hendrick Motorsports' strong showing at tracks like this.
Chris Buescher (+3500)
How can you count out Buescher, who finished 0.001 seconds behind Larson for the win at Kansas in May?
That was his only career top-five finish at this track, but he's checked into the top seven in four of his last eight races overall, including a win at Watkins Glen two weeks ago after starting 24th. He'll enter today's race in the 25th spot.
Ross Chastain (+3700)
Chastain had the fastest lap in practice but couldn't quite capture that speed in qualifying (20th). I'm willing to bet on the former at these outlier odds.
The No. 1 team has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four weeks. It's also posted the fourth-best average finish at Las Vegas, Darlington, and Kansas - where Chastain qualified second for the spring race and led 43 laps before an eventual 19th-place finish.
Before that result, his average finish at this track was eighth across four previous Next Gen races with three finishes in the top seven. A $10 bet at these odds would return $370 in profit if he can put it all together in today's race.
Best NASCAR long shots at Kansas
- Alex Bowman (+1700 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Chris Buescher (+3500 via FanDuel) ⭐
- Ross Chastain (+3700 via FanDuel) ⭐
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Best NASCAR prop bets at Kansas
- Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, or Christopher Bell to win (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Larson top three (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Larson best Chevrolet (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Race to go to overtime (+350 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
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Hollywood Casino 400 past winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing |
| 2022 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2020 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2018 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | Furniture Row Racing |
| 2016 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 2015 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 2014 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
How to watch NASCAR at Kansas: Hollywood Casino 400
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 29 at 3 p.m. ET
- Track: Kansas Speedway (Kansas City)
- Length: 1.5 miles (267 laps, 400.5 total miles)
- How to watch: USA Network
- Defending winner: Tyler Reddick
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