🏀 Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Picks for Saturday, May 9
In a rematch from last year's WNBA Finals, the Las Vegas Aces will welcome the Phoenix Mercury to town for their regular-season opener. Tipoff is 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Las Vegas, which swept Phoenix for its third title in four years, is an 8.5-point betting favorite and among the top contenders in the latest WNBA championship odds. My Mercury vs. Aces prediction targets the Under on Saturday.
🏀 Mercury vs. Aces prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Under 167.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1u → 0.91u | The rematch from last year's WNBA Finals could feature a bit more defense than expected. |
| A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 assists (-130 via bet365) | 1.3u → 1u | Phoenix's frontcourt defensive combo can force the ball out of A'ja Wilson's hands. |
Total wagered: 2.3 units | Max profit: 1.91 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Mercury vs. Aces?
Phoenix appears to be too shorthanded to push Las Vegas on its banner night. I'm projecting the Aces to win by nine in a game where they might be able to rest their starters on the first night of a back-to-back.
Score prediction: Aces 86, Mercury 77
💰 Mercury vs. Aces prediction & best bet
Under 167.5 (-110)
I've already circled the Mercury as an Under team that will have to find success on the defensive end. But they enter the season a bit shorthanded, which could further negatively affect their offense.
Point guard Monique Akoa Makani, who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie last year, is not available due to an overseas commitment. Sami Whitcomb is out with a knee injury. Kathryn Westbeld is out of the season. Plus, Phoenix will be playing its first game since losing Satou Sabally to the New York Liberty.
All signs point to a comfortable win for the Aces, but they are playing the first night of a back-to-back, so don't be surprised if they let off the gas in the second half. Plus, I still like Phoenix's ability to limit Las Vegas' best player (more on that in a minute).
🔥 Best Mercury vs. Aces player prop bet
A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 assists (-130)
Phoenix's frontcourt combo of Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack is about as good of a chance as anyone will have at slowing down A'ja Wilson.
Cementing her status as the best player in the league (and perhaps the history of the WNBA), Wilson became the first four-time MVP winner in 2025. She put up video-game numbers, but her 3.1 assists per game marked a career best. She passed even more against the Mercury, averaging 3.6 assists and clearing this line in five of her seven head-to-head meetings.
That's a trend worth backing, especially in a situation where Wilson might want to get her teammates involved with the Aces having more depth than ever before. This line is 3.5 at most shops, highlighting a huge bargain at bet365.
🚀 Mercury vs. Aces same-game parlay
In this potential game script, I'm banking on enough defense to finish below the full-game total while giving Wilson the opportunity to dish out at least three assists. It's a delicate balance, but one worth the +280 price tag on this parlay at bet365.
💵 Mercury vs. Aces SGP picks
- Under 167.5
- A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 assists
Best odds: +280 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.28u)
📊 Live Mercury vs. Aces odds
📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Aces
- Date: Saturday, May 9
- Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: Disney+
Related Articles
