Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Best Bets for Sept. 14
The Phoenix Mercury aren’t getting much respect in Game 1 of their playoff series with the New York Liberty, and I’m banking on them to play with a chip on their shoulder as I make my Liberty vs. Mercury prediction. Tipoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on Sunday at PHX Arena in Phoenix (ESPN).
For my WNBA picks, I think Liberty forward Emma Meesseman has an advantageous matchup, and I’m backing the Over on one of her player props.
🏀 Liberty vs. Mercury expert picks & predictions
WNBA odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Mercury (+118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Mercury +2 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 164.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
📝 Liberty vs. Mercury preview & best bet
🔥 Mercury to win (+118) ⭐⭐⭐
The Mercury are a surprising home underdog against a Liberty team they went 3-1 against during the regular season. Phoenix also won both meetings against New York on home court by an average margin of 16 points. The Liberty’s championship pedigree might be getting a bit too much respect in the opening game of what should be a tightly-contested series.
The Liberty are as healthy as they’ve been in months, but Phoenix’s big three of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Satou Sabally are as imposing as any in the WNBA. Phoenix was an excellent 15-7 on home court during the regular season, while New York struggled to a 10-12 mark on the road. I love getting value on a good team at home.
A $10 bet on Phoenix to win would provide a profit of $11.80. The +118 odds from one of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel, have an implied probability of 45.87%.
💰 Best Liberty vs. Mercury player prop bet
⬆️ Emma Meesseman Over 10.5 points (-106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Meesseman averaged 13.4 points per game during the regular season. She had success in her lone meeting with Phoenix, dropping 17 points on an impressive 77.8% shooting from the field in late August.
The Liberty signed Meesseman to be a ceiling raiser in the playoffs. The 32-year-old won WNBA Finals MVP during her run to the title with the Washington Mystics in 2019. She’s averaged 12.7 points per game in 31 postseason contests during her career.
Even with the Liberty at full strength, I think Meesseman will be given plenty of opportunities to be a factor at the offensive end.
A $10 wager on Meesseman’s Over nets out a profit of $9.43 at FanDuel. The -106 odds have an implied probability of 51.46%.
📊 Liberty vs. Mercury odds: Sept. 14
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Liberty vs. Mercury betting odds analysis
The Liberty opened as the 2.5-point road favorite, with the line being offered as low as -1.5 at some of the best sports betting apps.
🔢 Liberty vs. Mercury stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Liberty (27-17) | Statistic (per game) | Mercury (27-17) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Net rating | 3.2 |
| 105.8 | Offensive rating | 103.6 |
| 100.6 | Defensive rating | 100.4 |
| 84.4 | Points | 82.8 |
| 80.3 | Points allowed | 80.1 |
| 33.7 | Rebounds | 34.7 |
| 21.8 | Assists | 20.9 |
| 13.8 | Turnovers | 13.5 |
| 45.3% | FG% | 43.3% |
| 35.5% | 3PT% | 34.0% |
📺 Liberty vs. Mercury game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 14
- Tipoff: 5 p.m. ET
- Where: PHX Arena (Phoenix)
- How to watch: ESPN
❓ Liberty vs. Mercury FAQs
Who is favored to win Liberty vs. Mercury?
The Liberty are a 2-point favorite against the Mercury for Game 1 on Sunday at PHX Arena.
What is the Over/Under for Liberty vs. Mercury?
The total for Sunday’s game between the Liberty and Mercury is 164.5.
What are the best bets for Liberty vs. Mercury?
My best bets for Sunday’s game between the Liberty and Mercury are Phoenix to win (+118) and Emma Meesseman Over 10.5 points (-106).
When is the Liberty vs. Mercury game?
Tipoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on Sunday.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
