Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet: June 27

Can the Mercury beat the Liberty and become a true WNBA Championship contender in the game of the night?

Shane Thurston

Last Updated: June 27, 2025 3:01 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet: June 27 — Pictured: New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart tries for a loose ball. Photo by Stephen Brashear via Imagn Images.

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Our Liberty vs. Mercury prediction has you taken care of for the game of the night when Phoenix Mercury (11-4) host the New York Liberty (11-3). Tipoff from PHX Arena in Phoenix is at 10 p.m. ET (ION).

This is a chance for Phoenix, a 1.5-point betting favorite, to make a statement in its quest to become a true WNBA championship odds contender.

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury ML (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -1.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 168 (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Liberty vs. Mercury?

Phoenix carries the longest active win streak (five games) into tonight’s much-anticipated matchup. I expect the Mercury to make a statement by knocking off the defending champs.

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-115 via Caesars)

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💰 Liberty vs. Mercury prediction & WNBA best bet

🌡️ Mercury ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: 115 via Caesars ($10 pays $8.70)

Although DraftKings offers a -108 value on the 1.5-point spread, it’s still better to take Caesars’ moneyline price tag of -115. The spread would be the better play once it got to -103, though that’s unlikely to happen.

New York is a different team with Jonquel Jones sidelined. The Liberty’s 8-1 record with her in the lineup and 3-2 clip without her helps illustrate that. New York has a +29.4 net rating with her on the court and a +4.3 mark with her off it this season.

That difference is enough to bring the Liberty down to the rest of the pack, which is why Phoenix is a deserving favorite at home. The Mercury earned an 89-81 road win over the Liberty eight days ago, so I expect a similar showing in the rematch at home.

👀 Star player prop to watch

🏀 Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via DraftKings ($10 pays $9.52)

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Copper’s usage has been trending up since making her season debut on May 6. This has been her minutes in the four games since then: 16, 18, 22, 23.

Even as a limited player, Copper has hit multiple 3-pointers in back-to-back games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her playing time tick up to the high 20s in a crucial contest, suggesting there is value in this discounted 3-point prop.

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Written by:
Shane Thurston

Shane Thurston has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Thurston cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses NFL experience, a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Thurston is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Thurston doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.