Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 2 Odds & Expert Picks

My Mercury vs. Aces prediction for Sunday’s WNBA Finals Game 2 expects more defense after both teams had time to make adjustments following the series opener.

After a thrilling finish in Game 1, Phoenix and Las Vegas will have a tough act to follow at 3 p.m. ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena (ABC).

The Aces are the 2.5-point favorite after their 89-86 win on Friday, but the real move came on a total that climbed four points. As such, the Under leads my favorite WNBA picks for Sunday’s showdown in Las Vegas.

🏀 Mercury vs. Aces predictions: Game 2

WNBA Finals expert picks for Game 2; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Mercury +3 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 165 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 points (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

✅ Mercury vs. Aces expert pick: Game 2

See all of our WNBA picks from our experts for the 2025 WNBA Finals.

⬇️ Under 165 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Game 1 total opened in the high 150s before closing at 161.5. The market turned out to be correct, with the Mercury and Aces combining for 175 points in a game that featured 12 lead changes.

However, the total has adjusted too much in Game 2, considering both teams will only get one day off between contests. Both coaching staffs will also make schematic changes to help limit the opposing offense.

We already saw Las Vegas adjust in the second half, switching to a zone defense to limit Alyssa Thomas (more on that in a minute) and force more 3-pointers. Twelve of Phoenix’s 18 shots in the second half were 3-pointers, scoring 36 points over the final two periods.

At the same time, the Mercury are capable of playing better defensively. They have posted the best defensive rating (94.4) this postseason, suggesting they have the personnel to slow down A’ja Wilson and Co.

I like this Under at 164.5 or better, earning $9.09 on a $10 bet at the current price tag.

💰 Best Mercury vs. Aces player prop bet: Game 2

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 points (-102) ⭐⭐⭐

The reason the Aces switched to a zone was to slow down Thomas. 

She was engineering Phoenix’s offense by attacking the middle of the court, recording 10 points and six assists against a man defense in the first half. She posted five points and three assists against a zone in the second half.

I’d be surprised if Las Vegas attempts to play zone for the whole game, but slowing down Thomas is the primary objective. Thomas is averaging 18.1 points per game in the playoffs, clearing this mark in seven straight contests.

I’ll take the -102 value that Thomas’ streak ends on Sunday, cashing $9.80 on a $10 bet.

🎟️ Mercury vs. Aces most-bet props

Here are the most-bet props just ahead of tipoff, via BetMGM.

1. A'ja Wilson Under 25.5 points (-120)
2. Chelsea Gray Over 3.5 rebounds(+115)
3. Alyssa Thomas over 14.5 points (-125)
4. Jackie Young Under 5.5 assists (-135)
5. Dana Evans Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-175)

📊 Mercury vs. Aces odds: Game 2

Latest WNBA Finals odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Aces: WNBA Finals Game 2

• Date: Sunday. Oct. 5
• Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
• Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: ABC